Well, so much about my searing insight into the game, Madge's frustration was theater. Fred probably dies, leaving bessie as kingmaker between Sabrar and Makhaira. Hopefully Makhaira's late D3 analysis will convince her
Milleriser
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For what it's worth, my frustration was genuine, but I was full of glee. That said I didn't need to know who the cop was as my targets were pretty successful.
D1: Fred, I figured nobody is voting/NKing a newbie N1
D2: Bessie, with a last minute change from Heuri; chose Bessie as she always seems to live to the end
D3: Sabrar, because I figured Prince J would be an easy miselim
Then prince J got replaced and people are too polite to vote off replacements first day. If I'd known PJ would be replaced I prob would have targeted him instead, but I wasn't able to push the sabrar miselim anyway
I ultimately voted for Sabrar because I genuinely thought he was scummiest and figured that voting for my second-tier scumread would be too suspicious and my only chance at winning was going to be avoiding the voteoff, which I didn't particularly like my chances of
@sabrar if you thought i was milleriser why didn't you NK me me me me me?
I WAS RIGHT? ABOUT EVERYTHING??????????
I genuinely couldn't find scummy actions on my first viewing, so I looked at what people said about others' metas, and saw that Madge was passive (and flaunting that pretty hard early D1) and that Sabrar is "an extremely difficult scum to scrape". To be honest, I was blustering about Sab, and was gambling pretty hard on Madge having MYLO.
Bessie if you fuck this up I STG.
Old Bruce wrote:Mighty Morphine Power Ranger
Jplus wrote:Was that a response to penis or to tree?
If there's one thing I didn't want to be, it's the sorcerer. Now I have to think about strategy and stuff. For example I have to covertly signal my alignment to the wolves, I'm so terrible at stuff like that.
Well, this has gone terribly, sorry Maven and Fred. On the plus side hopefully I didn't leave much info for town and my apparent connection to bessie might buy you some time. Although funnily enough that wasn't even an attempt at misdirection, that's genuinely where the little town-somi simulation (running on not enough sleep and too much IRL frustration) in my mind went at that particular moment. A post about Makhaira being Frozen got me thinking about what they've been doing...
I also don't know why mafia deadlines seem to always be on a busy day for me
At the beginning of the game, I only scum read Doop. After backing off, I had these reads: EGW > Doop > Somi > Heury > Mak > Fred | Maven | Moody > Adum > Bessie. I'm glad I didn't make a reads list early, and just focused on one scum read at a time. I was thinking Moody might be scum with Bessie due to her chainsaw. However Moody is looking a bit townie. Now that Somitomi is flipped as Sorcerer, I do believe that Bessie is still scum, however. I now believe I was correct on Doop. He is scum with Bessie, and is deefwolfing. He is playing well. Thankfully in this setup we have a bodyguard or w/e it is. I should be able to live the night, and then my plan will be to pretend as if Doop is town, and see what he pushes besides Bessie. Then I'll push for him. I predict that Doop might try to go for a town read that is not majorly town read, so Mak may die, because he is working well with me. That's probably scums best move to get around the bodyguard. Or maybe they yolo it and go for me. It's either me or Mak I believe.
Anyway, good try Somi. I say next time you are scum, try your best to fake reads. That way you can learn what to look for in scum while you are town. The more you play each alignment, it helps you understand the mindset of the other, and loops around.
I'm glad to see my reads seeming to be good this game. This game I didn't feel like I had the time to go into a full reads list, and it actually helped my read accuracy I think. Mostly because, I was reading Somi as town half way because of how he seemed, but that vote really pinged me and I remembered that he too felt off from the beginning of the game. I just try not to look to into it because I assume it may be a power role thing. I think I'm also just trying to post less, I think it helped. Yeah, I'm hype about this flip though. I'm not sure if Doop knew it would turn out this way, but I could tell he was pivoting from Bessie to Somi on purpose after the fact, not during.
I apologize to Bessie for my grilling, however you have to go. <3 I'm glad Doop is there to support you though. I look forward to PJ posting some content. Even if we win I'd prefer to just see him actually play, he's a good player. I want to see his insight, because I'm sure he will have some.
I would have had all the egg on my face had bessie been elimed and flipped scum. I've bragged about being able to nail scum!bessie so being spared the embarrassment (so far) by the somi elim is good. Getting rid of scum adjacent D1 is nice. I really hate that one of my strongest town reads is dead set on eliming the other. I would be total crap deciding in a me-bessie-EGW LYLO, fortunately that will never ever ever ever ever ever happen.
I genuinely did not have an internet connection for the last two nights. Totally missed the deadline. My initial vote for Bessie was because of her mistake in the Millerizer game getting the wrong person. I was trying to unvote her 2 days ago.
Old Bruce wrote:Mighty Morphine Power Ranger
Jplus wrote:Was that a response to penis or to tree?
Dammit I wish I was better at logic then I could figure out if it mathematically more advantageous to check one of the same people I checked on N0 or whether I should try to get more information by checking someone else.
I'm starting to really get in to this. If we can manage to get Bessie out, this will be great. Unfortunately, I was relying on her tendency to tunnel and she tunneled me (and is almost certainly the seer) so we're probably going to have to kill her.
Old Bruce wrote:Mighty Morphine Power Ranger
Jplus wrote:Was that a response to penis or to tree?
Oh crums, I didn't even notice bessie claiming seer, now I could kick myself for not going along with that wagon.
EGW wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:25 pm
Anyway, good try Somi. I say next time you are scum, try your best to fake reads. That way you can learn what to look for in scum while you are town. The more you play each alignment, it helps you understand the mindset of the other, and loops around.
I know that, this isn't my first rodeo after all, I just can't be bothered sometimes regardless of alignment, because D1 sucks, D1 reads suck and madge needs to tell me her secrets.
somitomi wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 6:02 pm
I know that, this isn't my first rodeo after all, I just can't be bothered sometimes regardless of alignment, because D1 sucks, D1 reads suck and madge needs to tell me her secrets.
My bad. That's fair. It was fun playing with you again though, lets see how the game develops! I'm glad to see Fred getting into it though. We got em hooked.
On a separate note, I also want to apologize to Bessie for being wrong, and also just looking at her most recent post, actually looks similar to Millerizer Mafia compared to the early game. However, I'm glad that Doop helped switch us off the wagon (even though I would anyway), and that we are in this position because of the setup. I guess I noticed Bessie's excitement and misread it as forcing herself to emulate pro-townness. I'm glad that she is also suspecting the players without content. This game is in the bag.
bessie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 6:21 pm
I don’t agree, but I’m not really good at that type of logic/math, like if the other two picks have an increased or decreased probability of being wolves. Maybe Sabrar will leave the analysis in the Gojoe thread for me to read after the game.
Or in other words (as described by Dooplissity), your N0 result (the observation) eliminates a few scenarios (eigenstates) that were previously possible, thereby reducing the number of potential universes and thus increasing the chances of your other 2 picks being scum.
I tried to be careful with the math because this is a difficult concept and I still easily could have gotten it wrong. My result is that the other 2 players on your list increased their chances of being scum from 14,28% to 37,5% each, taking also into account the flip of EGW and somitomi (and assuming you didn't target them).
You can also think of this in the terms of: there is a 64,3% chance that your random list of 3 contained at least 1 scum (again, knowing all info available on D2).
1 day later: I figured out why this was counter-intuitive at first. Boiled down to its purest form this is essentially the same as the Monty Hall problem.
Last edited by Sabrar on Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EGW wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 6:23 pm
My bad. That's fair. It was fun playing with you again though, lets see how the game develops! I'm glad to see Fred getting into it though. We got em hooked.
Yeah, and we could've kept playing it if only you didn't absolutely nail me
I am curious to see how things will go for Fred & Maven now, feels like they're in a bit of a tight spot with me out and bessie all but confirmed to be seer.
bessie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 6:21 pm
I don’t agree, but I’m not really good at that type of logic/math, like if the other two picks have an increased or decreased probability of being wolves. Maybe Sabrar will leave the analysis in the Gojoe thread for me to read after the game.
Or in other words (as described by Dooplissity), your N0 result (the observation) eliminates a few scenarios (eigenstates) that were previously possible, thereby reducing the number of potential universes and thus increasing the chances of your other 2 picks being scum.
I tried to be careful with the math because this is a difficult concept and I still easily could have gotten it wrong. My result is that the other 2 players on your list increased their chances of being scum from 14,28% to 37,5% each, taking also into account the flip of EGW and somitomi (and assuming you didn't target them).
You can also think of this in the terms of: there is a 64,3% chance that your random list of 3 contained at least 1 scum (again, knowing all info available on D2).
N1 would you investigate inside our outside the N0 group?
Seven (she, him, their)
aka Zen, Xivii, Hari Seldon, Ro Laren, Spirit, Khepri, Kamina
LaserGuy wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:49 pm
Sorc
Seems like a very hard setup for mafia team.
It is:
Doop wrote:As far as balance, this is *the* most common setup on another forum, has been run >100 times, and runs a fairly close to even WR. Ran has the right of it, it's very slightly Town favored - something like 55/45 - but it's pretty close. It is swingy as all ****, but that's just the nature of 11p games with even marginally interesting roles.
However I have no doubt I’d win as scum
Scum pretty much shot themselves in the foot by not aiming for seer last night. This game is essentially town locked atp.
Seven (she, him, their)
aka Zen, Xivii, Hari Seldon, Ro Laren, Spirit, Khepri, Kamina
I'm glad to see Fred getting into it though. We got em hooked. 
