Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[Seven]

Btw, I attempted to resurrect jimbob last night. I don't have confirmation that it worked, but we'll know shortly.

Could we see you vote before then? I was thinking that if you were cult leader, your double vote would be removed upon recruiting, so I'd like to see that you can still double vote.

Also, why does non-town bessie make you less certain? You had thought I was survivor for some time, shouldn't her reveal then reduce the probability of me being scum?

[LaserGuy]

2x Vote: Moody

I had a 1-shot rez that I could only use on players I have never voted for.

I thought bessie was telegraphing that she had some sort of a tracker/follower result as I mentioned last day, and that was part of the evidence that I was basing my theory about TSS/Zenni's result on you being manipulated. But yes, you're probably fine.

[LaserGuy]

Also, I hate that it is D4 and we still only have two flips. I was really hoping that once my rez was used up we would get some more.

[Zeniba]

Huh. Double-checking the PM. Oh, I misread Madge's messages. The Night 3 check was a town result on suzaku.

Did you submit Suzaku as the choice or did TSS?

TSS

[madge]

Jimbob has been resurrected. He may now vote and post.

Patzer was eliminated by the Town vote on Day 2 and may not be resurrected. She was Dr Daniel Jackson, town Mafia Cop.

It is now noon on Day 4. Dusk starts in about 2 days.

7 players alive, 4 to eliminate.

Votals:

Moody (2) - Laserguy
Seven (1) - Zenni
Wam (1) - Seven

Not voting: moody7277, Suzaku, Wam, jimbob

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Hi all, I'm back. With patzer flipping Town, I think Zenii is a strong candidate for scum, but need to think more about it. Also, LaserGuy is confirmed Town if I'm not mistaken, barring redirects/godfathers, neither of which I think are particularly likely. This corresponds to my logic away from the cop result.

Does anybody know what Bessie's Cyronicist role does? Mods won't answer (already asked about BoomFrog's JOAT abilities and got a refusal to answer details about roles).

@mods, just confirming that somitomi shouldn't have flipped too?

I've got two posts (one game state logic and the other a rough mafia buddy analysis based on votes) saved/work-in-progress in Gojoe that I developed after being confirmed to be resurrected. I'm phone-posting, and likely to be all day, but will try to find the time to copy across at some point. I'm visiting family today and travelling back cross-country this evening, so may not get much posting time. I'm very unlikely to have time for more than gut reads by Day end.

[madge]

I confirm that my previous post is correct in terms of who has flipped.

(I mean, it should be correct in terms of everything, obviously! But I confirm that re-reading it and thinking carefully about whether other players should have flipped or not, I can confirm that only Patzer flips)

[Suzaku]

Welcome back jimbob.

Why do you ask, @Suzaku?

Because I wanted to get a sense of your thoughts and whether you had strong reads either way.

Also, LaserGuy is confirmed Town if I'm not mistaken, barring redirects/godfathers, neither of which I think are particularly likely.

How do you figure that? LG cannot be Mafia barring result manipulation, but could still be cult.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Also, LaserGuy is confirmed Town if I'm not mistaken, barring redirects/godfathers, neither of which I think are particularly likely.

How do you figure that? LG cannot be Mafia barring result manipulation, but could still be cult.

Very true. Sorry, my pending logic post has already ruled out LaserGuy as Cult, so I guess it probably tainted my thinking: I don't believe Cult (or Mafia) would have a double vote, as it could cause a surprise endgame (i.e. where Town weren't aware that they could viably be at E-1). I think this especially applies to Cult, as the mod-confirmed Cult count would then be somewhat misleading.

somitomi NOT flipping or getting rezzed is suspicious to me, given that patzer could be resurrected until my resurrection. I think this means there's a good chance they're either CL or Mafia, as why would patzer no longer be resurrectable otherwise?

[Suzaku]

Thanks for the clarification.
I agree that cult!LaserGuy is very improbable, but is not logically impossible (FMPOV)

Now I can get back to the post that I was working on when I realised this.
-------
Thinking about the cult:
If we assume that there has been no recruit (all have failed due to being killed etc.), then we have only the cult leader, who has been our one cultist each morning. In this case, the leader must be in {LaserGuy, moody7277, Wam, Zenni}. LG can almost certainly be removed from this based on unliklihood of there being a cult leader with double vote.

I think there is NO case (ignoring recruit by rez for now) where the cult leader could have recruited and still have the count be 1 the following day. This can only happen if the recruiter is killed the same night as the recruit, and by NAR the kill cannot be affected by the recruit, so resolves first. This gives rise to the above situation with no complications.

Let's take a look at rezzes:
D1 - None
D2 - Seven - apparently a self rez based on Phoenix ability.
D3 - Suzaku - rezzed externally, most likely by somitomi (no counter claims)
D4 - jimbob - almost certainly raised by LaserGuy

If Seven was recruited by rez - cult leader had to be alive at dawn on D2 but not D3 or D4, and at night on N1 - leaves only jimbob
If I was recruited by rez - cult leader had to be alive at dawn on D3 but not D4, and at night on N2 - somi is the only player to fit this pattern <= I know that this is not the case, but FYPOV it is possible.
If jimbob was recruited by rez, it must have been someone alive yesterday into the night, which excludes somi.

Since LG has claimed the jimbob rez (and before it happened) and based on LG being likely town, we can likely ignore case 3, meaning that for me only case 1 is possible. Even that though, is not highly likely given the strong townread almost all players had on jim D1 and 2, and Seven's seeming lack of concern about being elimmed, which would reveal the Phoenix role to be a lie.

Given the above, it's highly likely (I think) that the cult leader is in {moody7277, Wam, Zenni}

Zenni seems on the face of it the most likely shout in that group, as I'm not sure I believe that town would have both a Mafia/non-Mafia cop and a full faction cop (full faction cop is pretty powerful, given the ability to both ID scum and confirm town). It's possible that the recruit can be used as a psuedo cop (Mafia are recruit immune), or that Zenni is making up the results whole cloth.

Not enough to be convincing at this point, but definitely bears doing another read through and looking closely.

Current town-scum list:
Suzaku - I know I'm town
LaserGuy - Double vote is unlikely a scum power
jimbob - D1 townread and unlikely to be a recruit by rez
somitomi (currently dead) - I believe the claim to have rezzed me, I was not recruited. Could still be Mafia, but not sure he would have claimed in that case
Seven - I had picked as survivor, which is not the case, very unlikely to be cult (implies cult_leader!jimbob), could still be Mafia
Wam - Roughly the same level as moody
moody - Roughly the same level as Wam
Zenii - Good candidate for cult leader.

[Suzaku]

Quick note: Deadline is 17:00 my time, so I will be up and at my PC, but will also be at work, so may not be able to respond quickly.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Okay, logic post time. I originally wrote this in Gojoe end of Day 3, and revised it again at the start of D4. I've tried to revise it again based on the patzer flip.

Jimbob's Logic(TM) - assuming no redirection or godfathers, and a likely setup of 7-2-1-1 with no other

bessie: confirmed Anti-Social Survivor Cyronicist based on flip.

BoomFrog: confirmed Town JOAT based on flip.

patzer: confirmed Town Mafia Cop, with non-Mafia N1 result on LaserGuy.

LaserGuy: mod-confirmed double vote.
Confirmed not Mafia due to patzer result (if assumptions correct). Double vote unlikely in hands of Cult Leader, as could cause end game with no warning for Town (if LaserGuy had withheld their vote), unless limited to specific Days (latest details suggests this is unlikely). Also, a double vote doesn't seem to fit the spirit of a Cult count mod post each day, since those posts would then give a false sense of security. If not Cult Leader, not Cult: wasn't recruited N1 (mod totals say cult size 1 at day start and kill before recruit) or N2 (same logic) or N3 (same logic), and not eligible for rez-recruit (never died).
Conclusion: likely town

Seven: claimed self rezzer with 1(?) shot super kill. TSS/Zenii claimed N2 and mafia result on them.
Voted off D1, rezzed D2. Claimed killed BoomFrog N2. Not N1 night recruit (was dead). Not N2 night recruit (kills come before recruit, so D3 cult total rules out CL with cultist alive), or N3 recruit (same logic). Only possible case for cultist!Seven if patzer (or I) recruited via rez D2. Personal opinion: Mafia unlikely to have secret additional kill, as could lead to surprise endgame, so not Mafia, if Seven being truthful, but could be lying and there's another cause for my (or BoomFrog's death - less likely).
Conclusion: Seven is likely Town, or possibly Mafia or recruited Cultist.

somitomi: claimed targeted rezzer. TSS has claimed town result on them (ignored for this logic).

Ninja'ed by Suzaku - will review in a bit.
Mafia somewhat unlikely, but not impossible (rez used for obfuscation). Cult leader: only if resurrection includes recruitment (in this case Suzaku must be Cultist). Otherwise, ruled out by day start figures. I don't think somitomi is likely to claim truthfully as the CL, as it puts a target on them (mafia presumably don't want resurrections). Somitomi isn't lying Mafia, because they'd have been counterclaimed. Somitomi isn't non-CL cultist for the same reasoning as others.
Conclusion: somitomi is likely town, with outside chance of Mafia or cult leader (especially given that they haven't flipped yet).

Suzaku: killed N1 (presumably Mafia NK). Rezzed D3 (claimed by somitomi).
Can't be Cult Leader (D2 start count showed there was Cult, but Suzaku was killed before any possible recruitment). Probably not Mafia, since this would require a redirection or unclaimed PGO or similar(assuming they were Mafia NK). Could be recruited Cult iff somitomi is Cult Leader and recruits via rezzing. Otherwise, same logic for not recruited LaserGuy applies.
Conclusion: Suzaku is either Town, or D2 recruited Cultist.

wam & moody: (same logic applies for both of them)
No specific claims/night results involving them. Can't be recruited Cultist, since only one Cult member at start of Day (same logic as LaserGuy).
Conclusion: Could be Town, Mafia or Cult Leader.

The Snide Sniper/Zenii: claimed faction cop, town somitomi N1, Seven Mafia N2, Suzaku Town N3.
Same logic as wam/moody above mostly. I don't see patzer and TSS/Zenii both being Town and sane, and there's nothing in patzer's role reveal that indicates that patzer isn't sane. I don't see Cult Leader claiming cop, since it risks the Mafia NK.
Conclusion: Likely Mafia or possibly insane/manipulated Town.

For completeness - me: Can't be N1 cult recruit (same logic as others), or N2 recruit (night killed), or N3 recruit (dead). Could be D4 rez-via resurrection recruit. Can't be Mafia buddies with somitomi (due to bessie kill N3 whilst I was dead). Can be Cult Leader iff I recruited Seven via rez D2.
Conclusion: could be town, Mafia, D4 cult recruit, Cult Leader

Summary:
Survivor: bessie
Likely Mafia candidates: wam, moody, TSS, me, possibly somitomi
Likely Cult Leader candidates: wam, moody
Unlikely, but possible CL candidates: somitomi, me
Possible recruited cultists: Seven (iff I CL), Suzaku (iff somitomi CL), me

[Suzaku]

@jimbob

Is there anything other than the cop claim that makes you believe that TSS/Zenii is not CL?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@jimbob

Is there anything other than the cop claim that makes you believe that TSS/Zenii is not CL?

No, not specifically that I can think of (I have no night results that indicate it, for example).

Do you think CL!TSS would have claimed cop when not under pressure, especially given that there was already a claimed cop? I think this is unlikely, personally.

I do think TSS/Zenii is scum of some form. I haven't voted yet, partly because I've not given enough time to think everything though, and also because I'm still considering whether Mafia or Cult are more important to deal with. Given the apparent lack of successful recruiting, I'm marginally more inclined to think Mafia is the threat.

Also, I've been thinking about the italicized Pizzazz group member count and whether it is important or not. Typing this out on the fly: one thought I had was that it increased after a successful recruit, but we didn't see this because the cult leader was killed before the next Cultist count. The higher number represents the general recruitment, not all who are players. The only way this would work is if the CL recruited via resurrection D2 (i.e. Seven) and then died before D3 (i.e. BoomFrog, patzer or me). Nope never mind

[Zeniba]

Mafia unlikely to have secret additional kill, as could lead to surprise endgame, so not Mafia

This seems like a stretch...

[jimbobmacdoodle]

This was the post I was writing in Gojoe at the time of being resurrected:

Thinking about it more, it's possible the patzer/somitomi flips haven't happened yet because of the pending resurrection, to avoid some sort of unintended confirmation concerns, although that doesn't really explain Bessie's flip, unless resurrection comes before night kills (still doesn't fully explain it mind you).

LaserGuy rezzing me seems reasonable, and I don't see as coming from anyone but Town. Scum are probably aware that most players were hard town-reading me, and rezzing me for obfuscation just causes themselves issues.

Time for a bit of buddy analysis for Mafia-pair candidates.
D1: not Seven/somitomi or Seven/Suzaku (somitomi and Suzaku early-ish on the wagon).
Not moody/patzer (moody easily joined a counter wagon that pushed patzer, when there was a reasonable chance for it to work out).
Not wam/Seven (wam shoved the wagon towards heury when votes were tied).

D2: moody second to vote heury. Doesn't really rule out heury/moody team as could be attempt to garner town points if he thought his buddy was AWOL.
Patzer/Seven somewhat unlikely by patzer voting Seven rather than attempting to start a different wagon. Also, Seven voting patzer twice, including once after patzer's claim, when there was a viable alternate wagon (but see also somi/Seven comments).
Somitomi/Seven: I'd rule this out, due to Seven's vote on him risking starting a real wagon, but Seven is the kind of player that I wouldn't rule this out as bussing him.
Wam/patzer: seemingly locking in a patzer elimination, potentially twice, I think rules this out.
Moody/TSS: mostly ruled out by Moody's vote switch to TSS after the initial patzer wagon fell apart.
Moody/Seven: I could see Seven bussing here, whilst always planning on jumping off the wagon, if an alternative came up, so not ruling this out due to the late vote.

D3: fairly early moody vote on Seven I think is NAI in and of itself. The counter vote later on is the same, given Seven's propensity for bussing.
Somitomi/Seven, unlikely again: somitomi put a third vote on Seven, which is a long way towards a successful wagon, although there could have been an instruction to bus.
Wam voting moody then hopping off again when it became E-1 is somewhat suspicious, but not damning: they supposedly were just testing Seven.
Moody/somitomi unlikely, due to the vote putting somi at E-1. Moody could have voted someone else e.g. Seven, if he wanted to encourage a different wagon. He later did switch to Seven, which I think is more likely to rule out the Seven/moody partnership, given the surrounding context.

Ninja'ed by being resurrected, but posting here to avoid losing it in an unfortunate copy/paste accident.

Mafia unlikely to have secret additional kill, as could lead to surprise endgame, so not Mafia

This seems like a stretch...

You think Mafia would have an extra super NK and self rez? If I'd been Seven's claimed role, I'd likely have tried to hold back the super kill until using it (in addition to the regular NK) would cause Town to lose.

[LaserGuy]

Welcome back Jimbob!

Patzer flipping but not somitomi is interesting. It may suggest someone else has a power similar to mine (conditional rez based on voting or some other sort of behaviour). But there may be something else going on too, I guess.

I think wam and moody should both full claim.

[LaserGuy]

Unvote

We actually have to kill cult today I think or we're screwed when they use their recruit.

Can you explain the logic here?

[Seven]

Vote: Zenni

[Seven]

@jim my guess for cryonicist is that Bessie could self eliminate, putting herself to sleep to be revived later. Likely there was a restriction on when she could do this similar to mine.

[Seven]

(I don't know why that post has a smiley)

[Seven]

@laser

logic is that we could end up in a kingmaker position / stalemate

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Summary:
Survivor: bessie
Likely Mafia candidates: wam, moody, TSS, me, possibly somitomi
Likely Cult Leader candidates: wam, moody
Unlikely, but possible CL candidates: somitomi, me
Possible recruited cultists: Seven (iff I CL), Suzaku (iff somitomi CL), me

Realised I missed Seven off the Mafia list here (my initial post assumed Seven was being truthful about the kill, which would rule out mafia!Seven).

Based on my logic above:

Moody scum buddy candidates:
wam

Wam scum buddy candidates:
Moody
Somitomi
TSS/Zenii

TSS/Zenii scum buddy candidates:
Wam
Somitomi
Seven

Somitomi scum buddy candidates:
Wam
TSS/Zenii

Seven scum buddy candidates:
Wam
TSS/Zenii

Vote Zenii

E-2 I believe.

Reason: I don't see a full faction cop and a Mafia cop both being town aligned, plus they are a viable buddy candidate for 3 of the other 4 potential mafia members.

Wild guess 1:
Cult Leader: Zenii
Mafia: moody, wam

Wild guess 2:
Cult Leader: moody
Mafia: Zenii, Seven

[LaserGuy]

@laser

logic is that we could end up in a kingmaker position / stalemate

No. You believe that wam/moody are scum. At the time of posting you didn't know that there would be any resurrections. If we were in a 3-2-1 scenario, Town loses by killing cult, as we go to 3-2 and then a townie is eliminated by the NK.

I liked you better when you were pretending to be Town. Now you're just open wolfing.

2x Vote: Seven

[moody7277]

Vote: Zenii

I'm not opposed to LaserGuy's suggestion re claims. Hows and whyfors I am comfortable leaving to others, but I do note that LG's suggestion of me and wam claiming is most likely due to us being the more suspicious of those not having yet claimed anything.