HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[LaserGuy]

It is moving very fast. You know, the second reason why I have been trying to post less is due to this. I realized I was making it harder for everyone else to be able to sort the game. Yet I know that Zen also believes in posting less. I'm not entirely getting the feel that he is trying to restrain himself this game? Also, I'm not entirely sure if the conversation between you and him about the saltiness is very productive. I know that she usually is busy during the week and I personally know that she works a lot, and I know that when she has time to put in the analysis, she will be readable. I think my early read on her was misguided, due to being wrong.

As I'm reading and catching up on the game, I occasionally tilt my head at something I read and think, "Why'd they say that, it just sounds wolfy". Then when I check to see who the OP was its often EGW. I'm trying to restrain myself from tunneling or some weird OMGUS thing but this is becoming a pattern. Wolves are more conscious about how they're perceived, and the unprompted defensiveness in what's underlined above doesn't sit right. In the same line they frame it as a way to help the game, but that's just fishing for brownie points in a way town players don't feel the need to do.

Vote: EGW

I kind of vibe with this read. When I was playing on MU with a lot of new people I feel I had similar sorts of observations so this is the kind of thing I can see Town!Glue noticing.

[LaserGuy]

System.out.println("ebwop was supposed to read:

seven and boomfrog are not scum, I will die on this hill.

This post was made while walking in the rain on mobile and I'm doing other things right now.

");

I was really excited to see your scum case because that was a super spicy take, but I am sadly disappointed.

[EGW]

I'm curious about your breakdown of your full reads list, Laser.

[EGW]

I don't think I can get anything useful from that D1. Even if Seven flipped scum trying to get meaning from that list would be full of wine. Don't obsess over it.

I'm going to say it anyway, and then leave it at that. My thought process was that it's possible Zen is a traitor, and used that opportunity to signal to the scum team. Of course, I'm not going to use that as evidence for those three players being scum, because I can see what Bessie said as a possibility as well. Yet I think it's important I throw that idea out there, especially if Zen flips scum, and we read back on their interactions.

[LaserGuy]

Unofficial votals:

Seven (4): bessie, EGW, boomfrog, huery
moody7277 (2): Zeniba, Makhaira
EGW (1): Gluelock
bessie (1): LaserGuy
heury (1): moody7277
LaserGuy (1): Adum

Ye god I hope these aren't really the votals. 3/4 of my scum reads are on Seven.

[EGW]

It's a problem that Laser comes in with reads that I find predictable.

[EGW]

Ye god I hope these aren't really the votals. 3/4 of my scum reads are on Seven.

Zen voted for me.

[LaserGuy]

Town
Makhaira
Boom
LaserGuy
Seven
Somitomi
Moody
JC - this is roughly my "True Neutral" inflection point.
Adum
Zeniba
-Gap-
Bessie
heury
-Gap-
EGW
Wolf

I town read Seven right now, and the speed that Seven's wagon grew is a bit staggering. I'm willing to bet there's at least one mafia in EGW, Heury, Bessie, and Boom (My town read of boom supercedes here, but this does hurt their town read a bit).

Vibing with this too. I'm putting Glue in the Town lean column.

[LaserGuy]

I fully support Gluelock making a Town-Wolf list and making his current position known! Everyone should do this, and not wait until they have time for a complete reads list with analysis!


Woof
bessie
heuristically_alone
Makhaira
EGW
Gluelock
boomfrog
AdumbroDeus
JC_DADDY25
somitomi
LaserGuy
Zeniba
Moody7277
Seven
Grr

Why is heury so high up? Why is EGW? Why is Adum so low? I'd really love to see some details on this because I have so many questions about the placements here.

[LaserGuy]

@seven could've sworn I answered that already. As scum, do you not want to make good reads (usually town reads) that benefits town in hopes to solidify yourself as town? With Bessie my best hope in scum reading is to identify that she is putting a significant enough less amount of effort than she would as town. This game there is enough evidence that she has been playing catching up but still adequately giving content throughout that I'm comfy with town reading from now. And it is a higher post game than usual. I am a little salty that bessie didn't put me as her top town read, but I suppose I'll be satisfied with second for now.

bessie did put you as her top Town read? Like, under herself? This is weird.

Unless. Hmm. May come back to this later.

[heuristically_alone]

The cake is definitely a lie. As is all that garbage wine.

VOTE: Seven

Just kind of noticing here the heury seems to be jumping opportunistically between players who are being pushed by someone else without really attempting to contribute to the discussion surrounding it. Tempted to just drop a vote on heury here but I'll wait till I do my reads before I vote I think.

After seven's weird cake post I was planning on voting right after I read it, but 3 people had already posted by that time. I am anything but opportunistic (with exception of saving my own skin)

[heuristically_alone]

Also how was changing my vote from you to seven opportunistic? My vote on you was still safe for self preservation. Your logic doesn't make sense

[LaserGuy]

Note: EGW is highly town right now

Can you talk about why?

[LaserGuy]

Adum
If Adum is mafia, his scum style reminds me a lot of Hari Seldon.

I have to admit, I laughed when I read this.

-An example is his read on Mak that I keep quoting. It's so insightful, so much that I think it's the kind of thing that is more likely to have been picked up by someone who is coming from an informed perspective. I mentioned how he reminds me of Hari. In that Newbie New Year game, mafia-Hari made a similarly insightful post on town-bessie. While theoretically, he could have made it simply through keen observation, I think the informed perspective of knowing bessie's alignment heightened his ability to pick out the details for why she was town, and I think a similar thing is going on here with Adum.

IDK, I feel like given Mak's confusion on the issue, it made sense to check. I lean more toward thoughtful townie on this one than mafia.

For Number 2:
Adum has subtly been directing away from EGW throughout the day and there are little interactions earlier in the phase that I can't be arsed to go look for right now that just looked like mafia talking to each other to me. I highly implore you all to look through their interactions yourself and note that Adum is trying to justify not voting for or scumreading George.

I will have to check the timing of Adum/EGW's interactions with me, but this may be something. I don't really buy Adum as scum though.

[LaserGuy]

The cake is definitely a lie. As is all that garbage wine.

VOTE: Seven

Just kind of noticing here the heury seems to be jumping opportunistically between players who are being pushed by someone else without really attempting to contribute to the discussion surrounding it. Tempted to just drop a vote on heury here but I'll wait till I do my reads before I vote I think.

After seven's weird cake post I was planning on voting right after I read it, but 3 people had already posted by that time. I am anything but opportunistic (with exception of saving my own skin)

I mean opportunistic as in you aren't actually presenting any reason or evaluation for why you're scumreading people, you're just piling on when the opportunity presents itself. Similar to with me where you jumped on me for not only a bad reason, but also a reason that was objectively wrong in thread (you thought that EGW's take on bessie was mine). I'm noting that you still haven't acknowledged this error.

[LaserGuy]

Oh, I'm caught up. That was fun. Full reads to follow after reread I guess.

[EGW]

I kind of hate applying this sort of logical analysis to reads because, IDK, there's so many factors that could play in that I think all of the premises are a lot shakier than they appear on face value. I think bessie is mafia, but this kind of feels like right conclusion for wrong reason to me. Curious to see if Zen has any supporting arguments as I peruse forward in the thread.

Did you find any supporting arguments? Can you go into how you feel that case is the wrong reason?

[boomfrog]

Egw, Bessie and Seven are all town. More in the morning.

Unvote Seven

[bessie]

I’m here! But I’m tired. So this will probably just be a catch up post and not any deep analysis.

The weird thing about him is his insistence on bessie being town. It makes no sense. I also considered that Somi's "you know me too well", "I'm just trying to bond" lines might have been implying they are Lovers, but I don't think it's so.

This is a total (and I think deliberate) misreading of heury, and heury has even explained it in other posts. He doesn’t necessarily think I’m town, he doesn’t see any reason to get rid of me today because he interprets my content to be my typical D1 meta.

The only town read I'll go into is moody. Here's the town slip:

You calling it misinformation implies you think Seven is scum, in which case you either think I'm being led down the primrose path or I'm scum and just got my marching orders.

It's what Adum was trying to use as a reason for George being town, the lack of realization that there's no day chat.
Anyway, Moody has had lots of little towny micromoments, and Boom not seeing this is another area of concern. I'm burnt out at this point though so hopefully Laser can take up the mantle if it gets to a point where Moody is going to be elimmed.

Another misleading interpretation. Why not: moody just got marching orders based on your lead in thread?

Also, could you give me your thoughts on me vs. Seven, me vs. Laser, and me vs. BF?

I don’t really do this type of read, meaning its not my style or in my skill set. I will think about it.

Please do.

Acknowledging that I haven’t forgotten about this, but I need more time because this is really not an easy type of read for me to do.

My eyes are absolutely glazing over at the "confirm" discussion. It reads all NAI and a product of a mafia community that's meta has gotten too incestuous that people are actually taking it seriously this late in the game.

This doesn't really move my issues with how distinct your play has been from Sorc's, which laserguy correctly pointed out. I'm still waiting for you to provide me with some games where you were town that were decently fast moving.

@anyone can feel free to do it too, give comparably fast moving games where Bessie wasn't in a hydra so I can compare her play to them.

I will try to explain the confirmation post thing another time.

The xkcd archive is hard to skim because it is a bunch of pdfs of pages I managed to download from google cache after the site went down. There’s some stuff in the Wayback Machine I’ll look through it tomorrow. I think these are all my games on Smashboards:

https://smashboards.com/threads/flavorl ... on.501573/
Flavorless Mafia I was town but I had to sub out because I went to intensive care for three weeks.

https://smashboards.com/threads/sumting ... er.504676/
Sumting Mafia I was mafia but I was still partially blind so the parts about not being able to play at night were true.

Things I Like already linked.

https://smashboards.com/threads/apex-le ... on.507976/
Apex Legends Mafia I was mafia.

https://smashboards.com/threads/witchhunt-1.508990/
Witchhunt I was town.

https://smashboards.com/threads/wams-ch ... ad.512648/
Wam’s Chaos I was town.

https://smashboards.com/threads/decisiv ... er.513025/
New D3 Mafia I was town.

https://smashboards.com/threads/spirite ... er.513462/
Spirited Away I was non-town I can’t remember the setup clearly but it was not standard.


Will need to reply to Laser tomorrow I’m really tired out from being forced to socialize at my husband’s gig. Those of you that are extreme introverts will understand.

[EGW]

Egw, Bessie and Seven are all town. More in the morning. Unvote Seven

Boo. I'm interested in who you believe to be mafia at this point then. Three to four names especially. Still believe Zen is scum. Yet I also believe it's important I help you identify the remaining scum at least.

[madge]

The consensus changed in degree but not in direction, as the clock ticked down...

Votals:


Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
EGW - 2 - Gluelock, Seven
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody


Deadline is in about 21.5 hours

[LaserGuy]

Adum - I initially got some bad vibes from Adum through this exchange (there's a bunch of posts, I'm not going to quote them all) with Adum where I felt he was kind of twisting the wording of a bunch of my posts to mean something that I didn't intend and ended up landing on a scumread despite his case not really suggesting anything particularly scummy even in the worst misinterpretation. That said, ignoring that particular exchange and looking at the broader picture, this doesn't seem to be a particular trend in Adum and I'm leaning more toward it being a playstyle clash between us from that any else. I do feel @Adum backed off a bit from this exchange and I am a little curious as to the reason. On the whole his analysis seems very thoughtful and his method of making reads is very clear. Solid Town.

bessie - I think I've discussed everything that I want to about bessie at this point. You can see my analysis here. I'm putting kind of an asterix next to this read while I mull something over. I think I'd prefer a non-bessie elimination today though.

BoomFrog - I had an early Town ping on him, but haven't had much else in his content that his really jumped at me. I feel like in previous games I've played with Boom where he was Town, I found his insights, if not agreeable, at least, IDK, deeper, than what I've seen out of him so far this game. He's a play who I feel like usually sinks his teeth into the game more than what I've got out of him so far. Putting him at nullScum.

EGW - EGW is usually a strong Town-leader type of player who makes big pushes and rather openly advance a fairly transparent Town agenda. I know he's said he's trying to play a little less high octane, but he said the same in Sorc mafia and from what I have read of that game it seems like he was more of a presence there. I also feel like there's a performative nature to some of that posts--like he's repeatedly referencing that game (where he was Town, rather than trying to argue his defense on its own merits. I think the lack of energy here is pretty telling, and I see that Seven feels the same which I put a fair amount of stock in. Scum lean.

Freddino/Zeniba - Literally the only thing I have on this slot is this post. I think on balance players tend to be more honest, regardless of their alignment, in situations where they are, at this point, not really playing anymore, so the fact that Fred highlighted any suspicion of him should be attributed only to his inactively kind of leads me to believe there's nothing else to be suspicious of here. Would really love to see more of Zeniba though. Town lean.

Gluelock - Have been vibing with a lot of their analysis and their takes. Nothing has really stood out as problematic. Solid Town.

heury - I have a lot of problems with how heury has handled my slot specifically, and their relation to bessie (here, here, here). tl;dr version is heury said he was suspicious of me for scumreading bessie, which, IDK, even on surface level is kind of weird since scumreading someone (even incorrectly, as heury seems to believe) is not scummy. Heury and bessie and I have played many times before and he at least theoretically should be aware that I tend to have a pretty good bead on bessie. Moreover, he supplemented this with the argument that I was scumreading bessie for not doing confirmation analysis... however, as has been pointed out repeatedly in thread, it was EGW who made this claim, not me. heury has neither acknowledged the error nor does this seem to have affected his read. This comes across as super opportunistic to me as it was essentially an unprompted observation that followed my back-and-forth with Adum and I feel his vote against Seven later was similarly opportunistic, jumping on the wagon as soon as it seemed to be gathering steam without a lot of process leading up to it. Scum lean.

JC - Hard null. Literally no content other than posts just telling us they are catching up. I feel like the lack of even an attempt to engage with what they've read is kind of awful TBH. Does anyone have useful meta on this player they can share? Is this normal?

Makhaira - I still think, despite the very extended discussion on this point that I will not rehash any further, that this post suggests a townie mindset from Mak. I think the observation from Adum that Mak reading this from Zeniba and drawing the some conclusions as they did when they read it from moody suggests a townie mindset as well. Town lean.

moody - I like moody's play so far this game. There's sort of an openness about his observations that I've noted when he's mafia that I don't see here. Everything comes across as very hedgy. Not much content so far, but I'm comfortable with my Town read here.

Seven - I don't love this case he made on bessie I don't know a lot of the assumptions here really hold up under strong analyis. FWIW, he did make a similar style case against me in Midnight OPS () where he was Town so it's not entirely out of his wheelhouse to advance this sort of argument. FWIW, I think if Seven is Town his [url=https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=51819#p51819]case on EGW is very likely correct; Seven and I have discussed this before and he claims to have an extremely strong bead on EGW. There's kind of a mixed bag of posts that I think are kind of townie and some I think are kind of scummy, so I don't have a great sense of where to place him; Seven isn't a player I have historically had a great record of reading. I think I'm going to put him as cautiously just on the townie side of null for right now. Definitely not interested in his elimination though.

somitomi - Somi has super similar vibes in his Town and scum games so I've never found I've had great luck reading him on tone and unfortunately his content is kinda light. There was this exchange that kind of struck me as a little off for somi. I don't really understand this vote as somi had Seven as a decent townlean earlier and likewise why EGW suddenly flipped to Town. Feel like I need more out of somi to really have a good sense of where he's at, but I'm plunking him in nullscum for now.

Not doing the line graph because I'm way too lazy at the moment, but here's an ordered list:

Town
LaserGuy
Adum
moody
Gluelock
Zeniba
Makhaira
Seven
---Null = JC--
somitomi
BoomFrog
bessie
EGW
heury
Scum

Of the wagons available, I think EGW is probably my interest right now. As I said, I will probably not be around much tomorrow except hopefully right close to deadline.

Vote: EGW

[Seven]

I'm procrastinating hard. Have assignment due by midnight

success!

[Seven]

The weird thing about him is his insistence on bessie being town. It makes no sense. I also considered that Somi's "you know me too well", "I'm just trying to bond" lines might have been implying they are Lovers, but I don't think it's so.

This is a total (and I think deliberate) misreading of heury, and heury has even explained it in other posts. He doesn’t necessarily think I’m town, he doesn’t see any reason to get rid of me today because he interprets my content to be my typical D1 meta.

bessie as a player, mafia or town, has property TP
TP is good for town
Therefore bessie is town

His logic is so absurd it's actually quite infuriating.

[LaserGuy]

It's a problem that Laser comes in with reads that I find predictable.

My reads should be predictable. I have been talking about my reads for the entire game. I didn't go into the full details and some people moved around here and there upon reread, but I have been pretty transparent with my thoughts barring one or two things that I was (or still am) percolating on.