Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

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LaserGuy
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by LaserGuy »

boomfrog wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:28 am Btw, reasons that Seven's role claim is fake:
3) Heauy was unhappy to be eliminated and expected to be out of the game. If he really had a role that benefits from it's first elimination he would have been joked about it and not been so frustrated in his final posts.
I really doubt the name is false. Sabrar usually provides solid safeclaims for his scum roles (in Dark Tower we had full fake role PMs, for example) so even if Zen is scum here, either the name is real or it's a safeclaim, and either way will fit into the setup appropriately. As I've said before, I think there's a good chance that Zen is Survivor and am prepared to work around that for the moment. Heury wasn't cult. I don't believe it's particularly likely heury was mafia who was going to be resurrected given his disposition.

I'm fine with either TSS or somitomi as opposed to patzer. I don't want to do moody and don't think Seven is the correct yeet for today.
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

BoomFrog, I'll look at your moody case in a bit, but if you think it's better to go with Seven, I can be persuaded to switch there. More later. Going in shower.
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

I'm here and reading.
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

@wam, I don't know how many other players will be online between now and the deadline in just over an hour. I suspect not many at all. It may make your vote the swing vote.

For reference, tied voting rules:
4. If the votals are tied, then the person who hit the tied number of votes first will be executed, unless all players are voting solely for the tied players, in which case there will be no execution.
Which means moody is currenly being voted off per the latest votals:
madge wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:10 am
If is the Afternoon.

Votals:
Patzer (2) - bessie, Seven
Seven (1) - patzer
Snide (1) - Moody
Moody (2) - BoomFrog, jimbob

Per the tie rules, Moody will be eliminated if there are no changes to the votals before deadline.

With 10 alive, it's 6 votes to eliminate.

Dusk starts in about 5 hours.


Of the 4 elimination candidates, my order of preference is moody > Seven > TSS > patzer. I really don't think a patzer elimination is a great idea (I'll look foolish if they're cult leader), but I could be persuaded on either Seven or TSS if you think moody is a bad idea.

Now going to look at BoomFrog's moody case, per request.
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Seven
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Seven »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:01 am Of the 4 elimination candidates, my order of preference is moody > Seven > TSS > patzer. I really don't think a patzer elimination is a great idea (I'll look foolish if they're cult leader), but I could be persuaded on either Seven or TSS if you think moody is a bad idea.

Now going to look at BoomFrog's moody case, per request.
Sigh. I really thought you'd be on this one.
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Seven
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Seven »

Vote: Moody
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Apologise for not getting to this earlier. I probably would have commented last night, but I figured it was more important to update my reads of a couple of other players who were attracting flak (possibly it was, because it pushed The Snide Sniper into possible votables today).

BoomFrog's case on moody (spoilered for brevity):
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
boomfrog wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:22 pm Errg. Fuck me for being so indecisive I guess. patzer is either a very experienced player pulling a ruse from D1 or is genuinely bad at stringing together deductive reasoning. (Sorry patzer). Even when she is trying to be logical, in a single post she can't keep things straight. Her having inconsistent logic is not a scum tell.

She's been struggling from D1, and says so in her 3rd post:
patzer wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:29 pmIRL stuff to an extent, though be honest, this game is way harder than I'd remembered it to be, so I've tried to read through everything in detail before commenting in case I miss stuff. That's why I haven't been more active yet.

Thank you for providing that rough game summary though; it does help.
Yes, getting details wrong long term is a sign of messing up the double-think of being scum. But she's messing up details mid post as well, that's not scum-indicative. She's either faking it or genuinely confused, and I don't think she is faking it.

Also, her OMGUS on JimBob is townie righteousness. If she's advanced enough to be faking confusion she would be advanced enough to not OMGUS as scum.

FOS everyone who's only point against her was inconsistent logic, which I think is JimBob, LaserGuy, moody? Actually, I just searched and very few people actually voted for patzer despite the seeming forgone conclusion that that is where we were moving the elim toDay... I can only find JimBob and Seven voting. (Bessie had a different and good reason to vote patzer).

Actually, moody's entire reason for disliking patzer's slot is regurgitation of other people's grumblings. None of this is actually scummy, just "patzer is playing poorly".
moody7277 wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 12:45 am patzer: superficial guess at heury rez, placefiller TS list, responses to jimbob re her cases, partial reads distracted by technical issues, "confused" by jimbob's pressure, slightly into OMGUS territory.
Also, moody has given me way too much benefit of the doubt this game. His opening RVS vote was disengaged with ASAP with no actual reason, which gives me the feeling that he wanted to limit the interaction. He's just bouncing from easy target to easy target without taking any hard looks at the more experienced players.

Vote: moody
Re. your concerns with patzer was that she seemed to be scrambling for anything to grasp onto, due to being in the line of the elimination at the time (thinking about it, it seems most likely to come from cult!patzer or possibly survivor!patzer than mafia!patzer because in either case, their elimination will result in a loss). It didn't feel townie to me at the time, but I can see your point there. That being said, some of my reasoning for having patzer low dates back to D1 (see my read of her towards the end of that Day).

I can't really fault moody for his suspicions of patzer due to the problems with patzer's posts, because I had the same issue with patzer. Regurgitation is certainly a little off, as it implies lack of original thought (easier to end up in, I think, as scum). Certainly, we can share similar opinions, but everybody usually has their own take on it. I can't really comment on the "benefit of the doubt" aspect of your case - I haven't got the time to go back over your interactions with each other, to judge this, I'm afraid. If you still want me to tomorrow, let me know and I will. I do feel like moody is taking things too easily, which is one of my main concerns (the lack of scum reads, specifically). He may be self-conscious about this, but he's shown no true sign of trying to solve it, based on recent memory at least. I don't really have an issue with his RVS vote. Traditionally, my RVS votes don't tend to have much engagement with them, although I kinda see your point (although could also see it coming from a town player, who was looking for a joke justification for the random vote, rather than a serious attempt to engage).
Seven wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:06 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:01 am Of the 4 elimination candidates, my order of preference is moody > Seven > TSS > patzer. I really don't think a patzer elimination is a great idea (I'll look foolish if they're cult leader), but I could be persuaded on either Seven or TSS if you think moody is a bad idea.

Now going to look at BoomFrog's moody case, per request.
Sigh. I really thought you'd be on this one.
You mean you think I'd want to vote patzer the town-claimed-cop-with-no-counter-claim off at this point? No chance this game day (I might later on though). If patzer is town, then Mafia have to kill her sooner or later. The longer they leave her alive, the more chance she has of nailing one of them, and the more townie confirmations we'll get from her. If she's cult leader, Mafia still need to kill her, for basically the same reasoning.
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Seven
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Seven »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:22 am You mean you think I'd want to vote patzer the town-claimed-cop-with-no-counter-claim off at this point? No chance this game day (I might later on though). If patzer is town, then Mafia have to kill her sooner or later. The longer they leave her alive, the more chance she has of nailing one of them, and the more townie confirmations we'll get from her. If she's cult leader, Mafia still need to kill her, for basically the same reasoning.
Did you not read me and bessie's discussion?
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

Seven wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:24 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:22 am You mean you think I'd want to vote patzer the town-claimed-cop-with-no-counter-claim off at this point? No chance this game day (I might later on though). If patzer is town, then Mafia have to kill her sooner or later. The longer they leave her alive, the more chance she has of nailing one of them, and the more townie confirmations we'll get from her. If she's cult leader, Mafia still need to kill her, for basically the same reasoning.
Did you not read me and bessie's discussion?
This is where I'm leaning. Patzer having some recruit cop etc and banking on mafia not being recruitsble and having checked laser n1.
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Seven wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:24 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:22 am You mean you think I'd want to vote patzer the town-claimed-cop-with-no-counter-claim off at this point? No chance this game day (I might later on though). If patzer is town, then Mafia have to kill her sooner or later. The longer they leave her alive, the more chance she has of nailing one of them, and the more townie confirmations we'll get from her. If she's cult leader, Mafia still need to kill her, for basically the same reasoning.
Did you not read me and bessie's discussion?
I've read everything, although it was in a fair bit of hurry whilst eating breakfast, so details of stuff I didn't feel changed my mind hasn't stuck in my memory, so I can't comment on it at this point (and I don't have time left to go back and look at it).
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Ninja'ed
Wam wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:29 am
Seven wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:24 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:22 am You mean you think I'd want to vote patzer the town-claimed-cop-with-no-counter-claim off at this point? No chance this game day (I might later on though). If patzer is town, then Mafia have to kill her sooner or later. The longer they leave her alive, the more chance she has of nailing one of them, and the more townie confirmations we'll get from her. If she's cult leader, Mafia still need to kill her, for basically the same reasoning.
Did you not read me and bessie's discussion?
This is where I'm leaning. Patzer having some recruit cop etc and banking on mafia not being recruitsble and having checked laser n1.
Not sure I follow as this is too brief - who are you agreeing with here?
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

@j8mbob

I'm agreeing with Bessie here viewtopic.php?p=8512#p8512
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

vote patzer

I think this is the route. Use the day start cult number as a check and town can rez her if shes not cult.

Moody I'm just not sold on, I think seven, later somi are better elims today. Hes in my "possible" bucket of reads, rather than my probable. I also think his defense was calmer than scum moody would have been but that's quite a weak meta read.
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

*seven patzer and somi. Not later, stupid auto correct
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Seven
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Seven »

word

Vote: Patzer
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Wam wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:34 am @j8mbob

I'm agreeing with Bessie here viewtopic.php?p=8512#p8512
That prompted me to take the time to re-skim bessie's comments. I see what she's saying, and I don't disagree that it's impossible, but patzer will then have to explain why she doesn't have a cop result for N2. I don't want to go into plausible explanations because this will help scum!patzer, but suffice to say, I think they'll all be refutable, or will tell mafia she is the cult leader (e.g. because she claimed town on a mafia player).
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LaserGuy
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by LaserGuy »

What's current VC? Am I needed here?
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Wam wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:37 am vote patzer

I think this is the route. Use the day start cult number as a check and town can rez her if shes not cult.

Moody I'm just not sold on, I think seven, later somi are better elims today. Hes in my "possible" bucket of reads, rather than my probable. I also think his defense was calmer than scum moody would have been but that's quite a weak meta read.
There's a massive assumption here that town has a resurrection ability...

The bessie setup guess about cop/recruit even/odd night cop/recruit seems weak to me.

Join me on Seven instead?
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LaserGuy
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by LaserGuy »

@jimbob, who is your best guess for cult leader? Ultimately, we have the best chance of winning if we can eliminate cult before they have a chance to recruit. Tonight may be our only opportunity to do that.
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

LaserGuy wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:41 am What's current VC? Am I needed here?
I think it's patzer 3, moody 2. Everything else as per last posted votals. Your vote on moody wouldn't help.
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:42 am
Wam wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:37 am vote patzer

I think this is the route. Use the day start cult number as a check and town can rez her if shes not cult.

Moody I'm just not sold on, I think seven, later somi are better elims today. Hes in my "possible" bucket of reads, rather than my probable. I also think his defense was calmer than scum moody would have been but that's quite a weak meta read.
There's a massive assumption here that town has a resurrection ability...

The bessie setup guess about cop/recruit even/odd night cop/recruit seems weak to me.

Join me on Seven instead?
I can't see how suzaku hasnt flipped if town havent? I cant see mafia having a rez feels OP to me. Survivor is probably inherent either seven or someone else. Cult have a rez also feels OP.
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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

EBWOP: worth reiterating the tied voting rules for @LaserGuy: we still get an elimination, even in the event of a tie.
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

LaserGuy wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:43 am @jimbob, who is your best guess for cult leader? Ultimately, we have the best chance of winning if we can eliminate cult before they have a chance to recruit. Tonight may be our only opportunity to do that.
I know it wasnt at me but what's holding me back from a seven vote is I dont see them being the cult leader.
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LaserGuy
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by LaserGuy »

I think Seven is mechanically ruled out from being cult.
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Wam
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Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

Also my grammar and spelling are awful when playing quickly.
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