Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[LaserGuy]

Couple quick things. I am working on mobile so I'm not going to quote anything. I will try to be more comprehensive later.

-Thinking on it more, I think Heury is actually a bad yeet for today and am moderately suspicious of the three votes on him (wam, moody, jimbob) for pushing this. I think Heury is most likely the Survivor and I think this is the most plausible explanation for his lack of urgency... If he were actually mafia I feel he would have made more of an effort at misdirection even if he were caught D1 (see the recent WWZ game). If he were town I think he probably would have been more aggrieved about being misyeeted, or maybe warned Town that he would self-resurrect. He can't be cult leader and if he was resurrected as a cultist we still don't gain anything by yeeting him when we should be hunting for a cult leader or mafia. This may all be moot if he is modkilled, but I think an uncontested yeet on Heury is not useful or productive. The cavalier way Madge talks about modkilling also makes me think this is not an "important" slot.

-If haven't done a full reread so my thoughts here and subject to change once I get a chance to review, but right now I think I'd like to yeet probably one of wam or TSS. Wam has usually made some waves by this point and the fact that I can't remember basically anything he's done this game makes me think it is intentional. TSS has been giving scummy vibes for awhile and I think there's a decent chance they're scum. Patzer, OTOH has been making some efforts that I like and her outburst over the spoiler comes across as townie to me.

[madge]

Seven will replace Heuri effective immediately.

[Seven]

Hi guys, as YOLO stated, my name is Zen. It will just be easier if you refer to me as Zyth though.
When I tried making an account it kept saying that I was a spammer >_>. Anyways, I'm Dgames'
best player. I've won 90% of the games that I've been town and I usually have most of the scum
team pinned down by the end of D1, usually within their first few posts. (For example, Peaceful
Whale is scum). At my worst, though it can take up through Day 2.

Vote: Peaceful Whale

I'm a guy, but I like when people refer to me as she, because it makes me feel pretty.

[Seven]

My reads up to page 5

Keep alive
Boom - playing the most townie so far to me, but too good of a player to say for sure this early. Also with the multiple factions, even scum is able to scum hunt this game so can't really take town tells to heart
Laser - some of his reads are odd to me so that must mean he's town
Jim - putting himself out there, gung-ho
Wam - Seems like WWZ Wam. Pretty early though
Sniper - Could see this going either way, but I think reading him at face value is the way to go.


Need more info
bessie - depends on woof/gur list
Somi - not sure about this read at all actually (initially had him just below jim but am moving him down).
Suzaku - his posts so far seem to me like they could come from either alignment

Elim
Moody - his response to patzer here is probably scum talking to scum: viewtopic.php?p=7163#p7163
Patzer - agree with the point boom brought up

[Wam]

Welcome seven!

unvote

So seven given where you have replaced I to why shouldn't you be the elim today?

Also a heads up I'm not going to be around much tomorrow.

[LaserGuy]

Hi Zen! Thanks for replacing.

Hi guys, as YOLO stated, my name is Zen. It will just be easier if you refer to me as Zyth though.
When I tried making an account it kept saying that I was a spammer >_>. Anyways, I'm Dgames'
best player. I've won 90% of the games that I've been town and I usually have most of the scum
team pinned down by the end of D1, usually within their first few posts. (For example, Peaceful
Whale is scum). At my worst, though it can take up through Day 2.

Vote: Peaceful Whale

I'm a guy, but I like when people refer to me as she, because it makes me feel pretty.

[Wam]

Ebwop "replaced in to. "

[Seven]

Couple quick things. I am working on mobile so I'm not going to quote anything. I will try to be more comprehensive later.

-Thinking on it more, I think Heury is actually a bad yeet for today and am moderately suspicious of the three votes on him (wam, moody, jimbob) for pushing this. I think Heury is most likely the Survivor and I think this is the most plausible explanation for his lack of urgency... If he were actually mafia I feel he would have made more of an effort at misdirection even if he were caught D1 (see the recent WWZ game). If he were town I think he probably would have been more aggrieved about being misyeeted, or maybe warned Town that he would self-resurrect. He can't be cult leader and if he was resurrected as a cultist we still don't gain anything by yeeting him when we should be hunting for a cult leader or mafia. This may all be moot if he is modkilled, but I think an uncontested yeet on Heury is not useful or productive. The cavalier way Madge talks about modkilling also makes me think this is not an "important" slot.

-If haven't done a full reread so my thoughts here and subject to change once I get a chance to review, but right now I think I'd like to yeet probably one of wam or TSS. Wam has usually made some waves by this point and the fact that I can't remember basically anything he's done this game makes me think it is intentional. TSS has been giving scummy vibes for awhile and I think there's a decent chance they're scum. Patzer, OTOH has been making some efforts that I like and her outburst over the spoiler comes across as townie to me.

If you think I'm most likely Survivor, why wouldn't you want to yeet me, considering no one can win with survivor? You read WWZ? Heury's play was identical here so your reasoning for him not being mafia is odd to me. Your Wam meta doesn't fly in the face of WWZ.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@The Snide Sniper - I seem to have stopped receiving email notifications of posts in this topic. I'm still subscribed to notifications, but they no longer seem to be getting forwarded to my email. Pretty sure I've not changed anything, but I now can't find the checkbox about what to do with notifications to check.

@Seven - welcome and thank you for subbing in. I just hope we haven't wasted a replacement we'll need later in the game!

Growing increasingly confused by jimbob’s readings wrt me and my questions now.

I'm growing confused by patzer right now... Her latest post has several holes in it.

Then, her actual analysis is written not about "heury is town" etc but rather "heury was rezzed by town"? Yet a conclusion of "heury is town" is then ruled out. I don't know what to make of it.

This is an odd question as it seems patently obvious that non-town would not want to resurrect a member of town, unless they’re literally trying to lose. Jimbob’s confusion about this is... odd.

This discussion was already had between two other players earlier in the thread - see somitomi versus moody. By rezzing town, and then town voting them off again, mafia end up potentially gaining 2 NKs without any town gain (aside from the flip). If Mafia have an unlimited rez action, this doesn't feel like a waste to me.

This analysis is one that sort-of sounds sensible on first read but when you dig into it it’s just nonsensical.

For starters jimbob has noticeably neglected to mention any possibility of a scum team of me and heury (presumably realizing its unlikeliness) and still puts as the two most scum-leaning players- if the two scummiest players on the list are two you cannot imagine on a team, that should be a sign something’s wrong, and yet jimbob ignores this elephant in the room.

This has also been at least partially hashed out between two other players earlier in the thread. See bessie versus somitomi (including further follow-on posts). I actually previosuly ruled out you and heury as a scum team in my D1 reads post of you. This comment also assumes that there's only two factions, town and mafia, that we need to care about, which is not the case.

@patzer, why do you think the two scummiest players on my list need to be co-aligned?

Cynical view: mafia!patzer keeps forgetting there are other factions, and considers town the most threatening.

Secondly he’s saying moody pressuring heury isn’t necessarily a town sign- which is true, there are multiple scum factions after all, but again it should surely be obvious that scum wouldn’t pressure off one of their own.

Oh wait, she does know there are multiple scum factions...

Um. Have you heard of the term "bus" before? Given heury was showing no sign of coming back to post, and even if they did, town looked set to re-vote him off again, this is precisely the context where a good solid shove under the bus would make sense for scum.

And thirdly, in all his analysis of stuff he’s entirely failed to explain why he doesn’t think the possibility of cult resurrecting+converting heury is reasonable.

That's because I've been focusing on what didn't make sense in your post. The scum resurrecting+converting case does actually make a degree of sense.

Honestly? I’m getting suspicious here. The post does put heury at #10 (only justifiable position) but its entire body is obfuscation, speculating as to a town!heury without any explanation of how such a thing could have happened, and teasing as to the possibility of an alternative wagon. And also pointing out potential downsides to yeeting even a scum!heury is incredible as the alignment reveal would surely help us more than anything else would- he entirely fails to explain how he thinks yeeting someone non-heury and not revealing anyone’s alignment would actually be useful, and yet proposes it anyway.

Are you referring to my updated reads post? If so, how is the entire post obfuscation? Or just the section on you? What about the rest of my reads in that post? Anybody who knows my meta will be able to tell you that I engage in logical analysis regularly. I don't always get it right, and as BoomFrog pointed out, this was one of those occasions, since I neglected to highlight the information gained by flipping even town!heury versus the reduced cost at this stage of the game versus at elim or lose.

patzer's comments on this post really suggest she's not paying attention to this game properly, or is coming in with certain preconceived notions, implying she's not trying to properly solve things. I'm going to switch my vote for now:

Unvote
Vote patzer

Pending more of Seven's comments (I might well switch back to at least get a flip though).

@BoomFrog/wam/LaserGuy/anybody else who cares to chime in (I picked these three because I trust their judgement at the moment) - am I barking up the wrong tree? In particular, I'm getting vibes of panic from patzer - @LaserGuy, what do you make of this?

No time to comment on anything else this morning.

[LaserGuy]

Yes, survivor is scum, but spending two yeets to flip a zero information slot is not a winning strategy. I think your slot has a somewhat low chance of being core mafia, so I would prefer to invest our energy elsewhere at this stage.

Wam is much more cautious this game. In WWZ he was fairly active in his sorting and how he was refining his reads. His play is similar in ND3. Here his play is very stagnant.

[LaserGuy]

@jimbob I will look at your post in more detail when I get to a computer and can cross-reference properly. One thing that did stick out is that patzer is definitely not a newbie and should be well aware that mafia can and do bus.

[Seven]

Yes, survivor is scum, but spending two yeets to flip a zero information slot is not a winning strategy. I think your slot has a somewhat low chance of being core mafia, so I would prefer to invest our energy elsewhere at this stage.

Wam is much more cautious this game. In WWZ he was fairly active in his sorting and how he was refining his reads. His play is similar in ND3. Here his play is very stagnant.

Wam was criticized for being stagnant in WWZ. See:

bessies post here: https://www.mafiacolosseum.com/threads/ ... post-84428
Eido's post here: https://www.mafiacolosseum.com/threads/ ... post-84616
Mark's post here: https://www.mafiacolosseum.com/threads/ ... post-84623
and Wam's post here: https://www.mafiacolosseum.com/threads/ ... post-85237

[LaserGuy]

That was all at the start of D1. We are well into D2 now.

[Seven]

That was all at the start of D1. We are well into D2 now.

With no flip

[Seven]

(and he played that way D3 as well)

[Seven]

Wait, why do we think jimbob is town?

Town.

This question is coming from a town mindset..

Were you intentionally trying to mirror your playstyle in WWZ? Is that why you asked somi his read on you? (answer in Gojoe or post-game whenever you're back!)

LaserGuy is probably town, I like what he was thinking about JimBob.

Really, that easy?

The cult starts at one member but recruits at night instead of eliminating someone. If the original member dies the cult usually loses the ability to recruit, although that can vary. If you are recruited your win condition changes to align with the cult, so a D1 townie might be a D2 cultist.

@anyone else who has played with a cult on xkcd before, is this traditionally how they've worked?

Just trying to wrap my head around this: does this imply that if the game would otherwise end with e.g. a Town victory, the Survivor wins instead? I.e. we ignore the role for game end trigger, but it impacts who wins/loses?

If so, I could see an amusing situation where we have confirmed scum, but need to hold off voting them off due to the Survivor still being around!

This question is coming from a town mindset..

Please explain your reasoning because I do not agree.

Can you explain why you disagree?

I think if I were BoomFrog I would probably be offended that you thought I was basing a read off of something so superficial.

Townie.

Snide Sniper is obviously scum.

I think this gambit is fairly townie.

bessie: a few responses and questions, dubious of heury with some research on his meta. Town lean (+3)

boomfrog: no gambit this game, quasi-RV somi, newbie help, declares heury scum. Town lean (+2.5)

wam: RV sabrar, says LG's reads are a bit early, claims mod vote was a gambit and praises BF for noticing, thinks heury looks townie for volume of content, asks about heury putting Snide on the non-vote list. neutral (-0.5)

I don't like these three reads. You skimmed bessie (which you note later), town read boomfrog despite him not doing a gambit (which you attributed to his town meta), and scum read wam despite later saying you are calibrating for wam being more on the scummy side. The boom read feels like TMI.

If wam's comment about -1 for not noticing his vote was on the mod is serious, I don't know what to think... It didn't seem worth commenting on from my point of view, and I expect several others were similar.

This is a townie observation to me.

I would be offended if I believed he meant it. But this is clearly a post hoc justification to his initial support of me that was actually based on TMI.

To be clear, this post: viewtopic.php?p=6902#p6902 was made by Huay trying to sound agreeable with two townies (Jimbob and I) and he deduced what post I must have liked from JimBob since there's only one. But he's got no clue why I found it townie.

Vote heuristically_alone

This is townie. At least I think boom really believed Heury was scum. Again though, it's hard to say for sure if these sorts of tells are town indicative since there are multiple factions.

Snide Sniper is obviously scum.

I assume this is serious, so could you explain why?

I'm having trouble buying that you thought this was serious?

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

I'm currently undecided of Boomfrog is scum taking advantage of my slightly scummy appearance right now, or if this is Boomfrog who thinks they laid a trap and actually caught a scum. Thinking more about it, the latter seems more likely.

Somi, what is your opinion of me right now?

Why do you think the latter is more likely and in which post do you think BoomFrog set the trap?
Also, I concur with wam, why me?

Note that somitomi avoided answering Heury’s question. Negative.

bessie: a few responses and questions, dubious of heury with some research on his meta. Town lean (+3)

The research was on Boomfrog’s meta at heury’s request.

If wam's comment about -1 for not noticing his vote was on the mod is serious, I don't know what to think... It didn't seem worth commenting on from my point of view, and I expect several others were similar.

Do you not find it interesting that Wam didn’t leave his vote long enough for it to show up in the votals? I wonder if it really was valid.


Vote: Madge

Somehow I feel Sabrar will find a way to protect her from me.

@Heury, thanks for your answer. I asked because I had a similar feeling from you as my memory of whoever played the SK in the School Halloween, and was wondering if it was you, but didn't bother looking it up.

The serial killer wasn’t heury; heury was mafia in that game. Oh and you really should reread it in memory of our ghost-story-telling former host that unexpectedly moved to Egypt.

Looks like my questions didn' catch Heury's attention...
Vote: Heuristically_alone

It looks like heury’s question didn’t catch your attention. You still didn’t answer it, unless you meant to answer it with your vote. If so, can you give reasons?

This entire post is really townie to me. Especially the testing of the Madge vote. I feel like scum bessie would keep this theory closer to the chest.

Moody: Isn't anything for me to latch onto either way here, neutral.

I had a whole reads list that I put some effort into (although maybe not quite enough as bessie pointed out), that would seem like something you could comment on. Do you agree with my reads, or am I full of BS? For example, you have LaserGuy at neutral while he's my strongest town read, and you also describe him in glowing terms. Would you like to expand your read on him, maybe explore that intuition on him?

This is the post I referred to as reading as S/S in the read list above. Someone mentions later that this vitality here is uncharacteristic of moody. It gives me the vibe of scum overcompensating for the feeling of not interacting with their partner enough.

For patzer I'd say lean scum, at least if heury turns out to be scum.

This is townie to me, considering my alignment.

bessie: For vague meta reasons, I think this is probably her Town game

Could you elaborate on this?

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Moody: Isn't anything for me to latch onto either way here, neutral.

I had a whole reads list that I put some effort into (although maybe not quite enough as bessie pointed out), that would seem like something you could comment on. Do you agree with my reads, or am I full of BS? For example, you have LaserGuy at neutral while he's my strongest town read, and you also describe him in glowing terms. Would you like to expand your read on him, maybe explore that intuition on him?

Your list looks reasonable, it can be hard to separate town reads from neutral. However, on the matter of LaserGuy...

The combination of this and this made me wonder as to either the possibility of a Laserguy-Heury scum team- Laserguy started off with a very strong targeting of heury which could have been at attempt at publicly distancing them, and heury's reply is also slightly odd- or alternatively a situation where Laserguy is scum but Heury isn't, and Laserguy tried to start things off by directing attention away from him.

This isn't anything strong and I could be overthinking it, but it's why I put him as neutral rather than town.

which could be due to IRL issues and lack of time to read through the thread in detail.

IRL stuff to an extent, though be honest, this game is way harder than I'd remembered it to be, so I've tried to read through everything in detail before commenting in case I miss stuff. That's why I haven't been more active yet.

Thank you for providing that rough game summary though; it does help.

I wanted to get you to talk about someone and give an opinion, and I specifically was wanting to have you give an opinion on someone who had a decent amount of content, but also that content hadn't already been analyzed in detail by other players (e.g. heury) so hopefully you could give some original thoughts on them. I felt jimbob looked like a reasonable choice. I'm not thinking about you and jimbob as linked or anything, I just kind of wanted to get a sense of your thought process. Why did BoomFrog end up on the Town lean side of things when other people pushing heury (me, somitomi) ended up as neutral?

reason for you is mentioned above; somi just didn't jump out at me.

Can you try ordering people from most townie to most scummy? I find that this usually helps when I have a bunch of neutral reads.

Hard to say but here's a very tentative list,

1) Jimbob
2) Boomfrog
3) Moody (putting him higher bc he did some decent analysis)
4) Somitomi
5) Bessie
6) Laserguy
7) Wam
8) Suzaku
9) Snide Sniper
10) heury

The ones nearer the end (except heury) are done based on activity levels as I don't have much else to go on. It's hard to know where to put Laserguy because I'm having ome suspicions but the town!laserguy argument is strong.

As for Snide Sniper (to respond to the last question)- I don't think there's anything in particular against him, but the lack of activity could be a sign in itself so I'll have to put him at #9 for now.

The Laser read here seems very forced to me!

@huay: Bad luck getting made so quickly as scum D1. I feel slightly guilty body slamming you so hard immediately.

Unfortunately you were wrong.

heury: Something about his vibes is pointing me towards lean scum. For example this message is needlessly teasing at the possibility of him not being town, and I don't see why a townie would do that even as a joke.

Actually I really don't like this read. It's pilling on against someone vulnerable but not for any reasons I agree with. It's predatory.

Unvote heuristically_alone
Vote Patzer

I think this is right though.

Slightly revised list after reading more deeply the first five pages (except the bottom third of page 5 because I'm getting sleepy):

Keep:
Jim
Boom
Laser
bessie
Sniper
Wam

Unsure:
Somi
Suzaku

Elim:
Moody
Patzer

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@The Snide Sniper: seems like emails were backed up, as they're now coming through from posts that were made hours ago.

[patzer]

This discussion was already had between two other players earlier in the thread - see somitomi versus moody. By rezzing town, and then town voting them off again, mafia end up potentially gaining 2 NKs without any town gain (aside from the flip). If Mafia have an unlimited rez action, this doesn't feel like a waste to me.

I hadn't recalled seeing those posts; they were just very brief asides after all.

It is at least an explanation so thank you for that. Still feels rather as if it's clutching at straws. If they just... hadn't resurrected anyone... we'd be none the wiser.

@patzer, why do you think the two scummiest players on my list need to be co-aligned?

It isn't necessary, it's just surprising and probably worthy of comment as to which sorts of alignments you'd anticipate both players in.

Um. Have you heard of the term "bus" before? Given heury was showing no sign of coming back to post, and even if they did, town looked set to re-vote him off again, this is precisely the context where a good solid shove under the bus would make sense for scum.

I hadn't recalled the word bus; that is of course a possibility but it isn't the most likely one that would first come to mind.

That's because I've been focusing on what didn't make sense in your post. The scum resurrecting+converting case does actually make a degree of sense.

Interesting to see the use of "scum" here when I was specifically focused on the cult. (The mafia holding such a power would surely make them overpowered when combined with their kill ability). Good to see my hypothesis acknowledged though, thank you.

Are you referring to my updated reads post? If so, how is the entire post obfuscation? Or just the section on you? What about the rest of my reads in that post? Anybody who knows my meta will be able to tell you that I engage in logical analysis regularly. I don't always get it right, and as BoomFrog pointed out, this was one of those occasions, since I neglected to highlight the information gained by flipping even town!heury versus the reduced cost at this stage of the game versus at elim or lose.

The bit that felt like obfuscation was trying to argue on reasons not to yeet heury- it felt like in general there was attempt to give serious consideration to the town!heury hypothesis in the analysis of the other players, probably more consideration than the hypothesis deserved.

Onto other stuff,

just noticed I hadn't voted yet.

Vote: Seven

I am hereby going to do a bit of game mechanic analysis. The sensible initial distribution others have mentioned would be 6 town, 2 mafia, 1 cult, 1 survivor. We've lost a town member; it's presumably 5-2-1-1 now unless one bears in mind the possibility of resurrection with conversion...
If mafia had conversion ability it'd be 4-3-1-1 now had Heury originally been town (if he'd originally been mafia they'd have resurrected Suzaku instead). This is too overpowered. Unbalanced dynamic; I'm ruling this option out.

If it's a cult with conversion-with-resurrection ability, it'd likely be 4-2-2-1 now, unless Heury was initially mafia in which case it would be 5-1-2-1 (or survivor in which case 5-2-2-0). This isn't too unbalanced although the number of resurrections would have to be limited to make it fair. Possibility.

Town with resurrection ability can safely be ruled out unless there's a member of town who can both resurrect and determine alignment, but that seems unlikely.

Question for other players if they remember: Is it confirmed there's a conversion ability in the game or not? I don't recall.

[Wam]

@patzer what do you mean by a conversion ability?

[The Snide Sniper]

I'll try to make a read for Seven when I have time. Other than that, some admin stuff:

When I tried making an account it kept saying that I was a spammer >_>.

Odd, I don't see your username in the modlog.

@The Snide Sniper: seems like emails were backed up, as they're now coming through from posts that were made hours ago.

This was almost certainly the case. NFS throttles emails because they don't want their services used to send spam.

[moody7277]

This is the post I referred to as reading as S/S in the read list above. Someone mentions later that this vitality here is uncharacteristic of moody. It gives me the vibe of scum overcompensating for the feeling of not interacting with their partner enough.

If you're reading a scum team of me and patzer, then you would have to believe that I was bussing her D1 given me and boomfrog were the counterwagon to heury. This despite the fact that it's her first game ever; I just don't think I'm that cold blooded. Here's the post your talking about secondly. My opinion was that jimbob was shocked I was asking a direct question, which is something I'm not known to do a lot of.

[Seven]

just noticed I hadn't voted yet.

Vote: Seven

What is this based on?

This is the post I referred to as reading as S/S in the read list above. Someone mentions later that this vitality here is uncharacteristic of moody. It gives me the vibe of scum overcompensating for the feeling of not interacting with their partner enough.

If you're reading a scum team of me and patzer, then you would have to believe that I was bussing her D1 given me and boomfrog were the counterwagon to heury. This despite the fact that it's her first game ever; I just don't think I'm that cold blooded. Here's the post your talking about secondly. My opinion was that jimbob was shocked I was asking a direct question, which is something I'm not known to do a lot of.

The idea of bussing is moot until someone is permaflipped. There is a way for at least one mafia member to be resurrected, otherwise we'd know that all resurrected people aren't mafia. So mafia are likely to be much more open to bussing on the first go around this game.

[patzer]

just noticed I hadn't voted yet.

Vote: Seven

What is this based on?

Pretty much the whole conversation so far. I can't envisage any feasible scenario in which you are currently town- but if you'd like to try to convince me of why you got resurrected, I'd like to hear it.

[moody7277]

The idea of bussing is moot until someone is permaflipped. There is a way for at least one mafia member to be resurrected, otherwise we'd know that all resurrected people aren't mafia. So mafia are likely to be much more open to bussing on the first go around this game.

Does this mean I can think of you and bessie as a scum team? After all, it was her vote that pretty much sealed huery's first elim.

[Seven]

The idea of bussing is moot until someone is permaflipped. There is a way for at least one mafia member to be resurrected, otherwise we'd know that all resurrected people aren't mafia. So mafia are likely to be much more open to bussing on the first go around this game.

Does this mean I can think of you and bessie as a scum team? After all, it was her vote that pretty much sealed huery's first elim.

Certainly, it shouldn't be outside the realm of possibility from your perspective.