Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Sit back, relax, and enjoy some forum-based games.
User avatar
boomfrog
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:23 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by boomfrog »

Modprod Heuri please.
User avatar
madge
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:51 am
Location: UTC+8

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by madge »

Prodded (though note that Heuri did receive a PM at noon informing them of the ressurrection)
she/her
Plug: my vampire romance novel is finished!
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

I've been thinking about whether voting off heury again would be a good idea or not at this point. Here's where my thoughts are at:

Case 1: heury is Town. Clearly, voting him off is a mistake.
Case 2: heury is Antisocial Survivor. In this case, mafia will need to kill him at some point themselves, if we don't vote him off. Voting him off in the situation is not a good idea, as it wastes a day whilst scum can continue to kill/recruit. There may come a point later where we should vote him off, but it might become a game of chicken with Mafia.
Case 3: heury is Mafia. In this case, although voting him off is not a waste, it does mean we have no clear link to a scum buddy. The longer he's around and talking, the more chance something will slip.
Case 4: heury is cult. Very unlikely due to the cult figures at start of D2.

Case 3 is the only one where it's beneficial right now to vote heury off, and I'm inclined to think it's unlikely based on my read of heury D1 (it's not impossible though).

Thoughts?

The flip argument is that he'll flip, giving us useful info in and of itself, regardless of his alignment.

(It may be moot if heury is modkilled of course)

Reactions to any other content since my last post will follow later in the day.
User avatar
patzer
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:47 pm

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by patzer »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:49 am @patzer - cult!heury is almost ruled out by mod confirmation that dead players don't show up in the cult numbers. Did you miss this? Also, what about scum with resurrection power?
Oh that changes things. Where was that mod post? I don’t remember it.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

patzer wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:30 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:49 am @patzer - cult!heury is almost ruled out by mod confirmation that dead players don't show up in the cult numbers. Did you miss this? Also, what about scum with resurrection power?
Oh that changes things. Where was that mod post? I don’t remember it.
madge wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:49 am
Dead cult members do not appear in the total.
This was in response to my question a few posts earlier.

What about the second question I posted in the post you quoted?
User avatar
boomfrog
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:23 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by boomfrog »

@JimBob: I usually agree with your logic but you seem to be starting at a conclusion and working to prove it.

Case 1 heury is town: We almost certainly end up eliminating him near end game unless the antisocial surviver and Mafia are both eliminated early. And with the way flips work, I doubt we will have that confirmation in a timely fashion.
Case 2 heury is Survivor: I don't want to explain optimal Mafia strategy, but let's say this is risky at best for us to keep heury in the game.
Case 3: heury has proven he won't be very talkative anymore. We will get a lot better chance to find connections from D1 and act on them if we know heury is Mafia. Better to get that info early.
User avatar
boomfrog
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:23 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by boomfrog »

Btw, I'll be disconnected most of the weekend.
bessie wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:58 am LaserGuy
Agree with most of his thoughts.
Morning thought, how was the below "noted" concern not in your notes?
bessie wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:07 am
LaserGuy wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:44 pm Somitomi answered your question (he has also since answered your follow-up). My question was for you. I'm trying to understand your perspective. But your evading my question has been noted.
Somi hadn’t answered my follow-up question at the time I made that post. Your attempt at misrepresenting this has been noted.
User avatar
moody7277
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:14 pm
Location: Extreme Southern Texas

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by moody7277 »

Boomfrog's point 3 in his rebuttal is the main point about heury. He isn't going to be posting here anymore so the only info we're going to get from him is when he flips when he's permadead (as opposed to being just mostly dead).

Vote: huery

@boomfrog: Return the favor from D1 and join me.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

moody7277 wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:46 pmOther than Suzaku being at a +10, I think I'd move LG and jimbob up to a +4 with other people more or less where they'd been at last read.
I think I said this before, but Suzaku, whilst likely town, isn't guaranteed town, due to various possibilities (town vig, redirected kill, other power role messing with who gets killed etc). I don't agree with him being put at +10 (+8 or +9, maybe, but not +10).
boomfrog wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:09 pmBessie's notes will hopefully help sort her. Somi and moody feel townish but I need more strong opinions from them. My reads say that TSS, patzer and Heuy are all scum, but that is setting off my "too easy" detector. Still, re-eliming Heuy to get a flip has to be the best plan toDay unless someone has something shocking to say.
bessie has posted notes now. Any update with where she's at in the list? I still don't agree with people who think The Snide Sniper is scum. I think there are scummier players out there.
somitomi wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:11 pm Well, until we have a flip the alignment of dead people is just as much up for discussion as any live players are. Just because they can't do a thing doesn't mean new information can't put their actions in new light, so why take them off the list?
+1 (also to BoomFrog's similar comments).
bessie wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:58 am Some thoughts on some players besides heury would be nice too.
Also +1.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:47 am What about the second question I posted in the post you quoted?
@patzer, I reread your earlier post and realised that I'd missed your mafia case somehow (got too distracted by other bits for some reason). (I would still like to know why you didn't answer me though...).
boomfrog wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:25 pm @JimBob: I usually agree with your logic but you seem to be starting at a conclusion and working to prove it.

Case 1 heury is town: We almost certainly end up eliminating him near end game unless the antisocial surviver and Mafia are both eliminated early. And with the way flips work, I doubt we will have that confirmation in a timely fashion.
Case 2 heury is Survivor: I don't want to explain optimal Mafia strategy, but let's say this is risky at best for us to keep heury in the game.
Case 3: heury has proven he won't be very talkative anymore. We will get a lot better chance to find connections from D1 and act on them if we know heury is Mafia. Better to get that info early.
All fair points. I guess I've got Survivor!heury with self-resurrection stuck in my head and I wasn't thinking through things clearly when posting this morning. I guess delaying would mean a cop or whatever could potentially verify heury, but that feels like a waste.

Vote heuristically_alone

That's L-3. Will start looking at updating my reads now.
User avatar
bessie
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:10 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by bessie »

boomfrog wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:31 pm Morning thought, how was the below "noted" concern not in your notes?
like really.PNG
like really.PNG (41.83 KiB) Viewed 191 times
bessie wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:58 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:29 am
bessie wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:07 am If you want I can post my notes to where I left off on D1.
Please do.
Ok. This is where I was at on Sunday when I made this post . I probably had only copied things from my old posts and hadn’t gotten too far with a new reread.
Pay attention BoomFrog.


I feel that auto-voting heury today would be sub optimal because without a counterwagon we will have nothing to analyze from D2. I also feel it would be more beneficial to eliminate someone else today and get the timer started on their flip, and save heury for tomorrow. On the other hand, I don’t want to drag a non contributing player through two more game days so I won’t object to heury if that is the consensus.

In the meantime:


Vote: patzer


Because she hasn’t posted an opinion on anyone except heury since her reads list on 9/30/21, nine days ago, which she claimed was tentative because she didn’t have much to go on. Her D2 content is a reposting of the same list with a promise of an update in her next post, which didn’t happen.

@patzer, please post an updated town-scum list. It would also be nice to have some reads with that list.
User avatar
patzer
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:47 pm

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by patzer »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:54 pm @patzer, I reread your earlier post and realised that I'd missed your mafia case somehow (got too distracted by other bits for some reason). (I would still like to know why you didn't answer me though...).
Re mafia with resurrection ability, it’s possible but feels incredibly overpowered. Not sure how it could be a fair game without us having a very strong counterbalancing power.
User avatar
patzer
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:47 pm

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by patzer »

at MLP convention rn but it’s half an hour before events start so here we go
bessie wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:40 am Because she hasn’t posted an opinion on anyone except heury since her reads list on 9/30/21, nine days ago, which she claimed was tentative because she didn’t have much to go on. Her D2 content is a reposting of the same list with a promise of an update in her next post, which didn’t happen.

@patzer, please post an updated town-scum list. It would also be nice to have some reads with that list.
Alright. We do have at least something to go on now given how unlikely it is that heury is non-town...
Let’s analyse players one by one.

Bessie: sensible strategy to try to generate more information by counterwagon, but it does raise the question of exactly who would take the blame for such a thing... if Heury flips scum (as we all expect) it would naturally cast at least some suspicion on those who didn’t go along with it. One can hardly argue a counterwagon is a sign of towniness if continued; Bessie doing so could simply be town information-getting but it could also be a scum attempt at obfuscation (bolstered by past questioning of others whose reads on heury were strengthened over time). I’m therefore putting a tentative lean scum, hypothesising that the “counterwagon information” explanation is in fact a distraction to make it look less suspicious.

Jimbob: initially skeptical of heury wagon but later joined on. Reason for initial skepticism seems a bit odd but logical, still downgrading my initial lean-town rating to neutral

Moody: fuck, I’ve been looking through everyone’s posts by clicking on the number to the right of their name, only to fond that POSTS IN THE GOJOE THREAD SHOW AS BEING UNSPOILERED WHEN YOU LOOK THROUGH THEIR POSTS LIKE THIS.
Yes seriously, the spoiler just completely fails to work in their list of posts. Terrible terrible software design. I am very lucky the little bit I saw before immediately clicking away didn’t reveal any information about their alignment, but still... huge gigantic warning for all, DO NOT DO WHAT I DID.
Anyway, lean town because I don’t think scum would be pressuring heury so much.

Onto the rest of the players soon, but for now I’d like to quickly ask @Snide Sniper if it’s possible to figure out the forum software in a way that doesn’t leave Gojoe posts unspoilered when reading through someone’s posts. It’d be way easier to quickly look through people’s stuff then.
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:20 pm Okay, thanks. My original reading of your earlier comment was that you thought bessie knew heury's role, because she's his buddy, but then IIRC from the rules posts, mafia only have night chat, so she couldn't, and this would have been a not-Mafia slip from you. I still think you're town, FWIW.

I don't think heury is a mafia buddy with bessie, by the way - the timing of bessie's vote on him was too critical, when she might have been able to swing a wagon in completely the other direction. That being said, if Mafia had an effective lynch immunity through resurrection, she might have been willing to hard bus heury. It doesn't feel right to me though.
The point on the timing of the vote is very true, but all of this is speculative depending on Heury's flip.
LaserGuy wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:05 pm I really hope we're not going to have to yeet everyone twice this game. I'm not opposed to yeeting heury again in principle so we can at least have a result, but it feels kind of a waste.
This does sum up my view nicely.
somitomi wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:11 pm
Well, until we have a flip the alignment of dead people is just as much up for discussion as any live players are. Just because they can't do a thing doesn't mean new information can't put their actions in new light, so why take them off the list?
Vote: Suzaku
Why not test this yourself though?
Should have done but at least we know now you can't.
bessie wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:58 am Heury hadn’t posted in two days (since 4:30 Friday my time) and I wasn’t thinking that he would post Sunday night. He still hasn’t posted.
I was expecting Suzuku to post sometime in the last few hours of D1 because of his time zone.
And, later after end of day, Suzuku posted in the Gojoe thread that that he was writing a post at hammer, and that post is regrettably unspoilered. I try not to let outside things like that affect my gameplay, but I guess it was in the back of my mind, knowing that he was going to post, so it came out in my game post on D2.

I had missed/read and forgotten the Gojoe post so that makes more sense.

moody7277 wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:51 pm Boomfrog's point 3 in his rebuttal is the main point about heury. He isn't going to be posting here anymore so the only info we're going to get from him is when he flips when he's permadead (as opposed to being just mostly dead).

Vote: huery

@boomfrog: Return the favor from D1 and join me.
Do you mean because he can't post or because he just isn't posting for whatever reason?
patzer wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:42 am
Moody: fuck, I’ve been looking through everyone’s posts by clicking on the number to the right of their name, only to fond that POSTS IN THE GOJOE THREAD SHOW AS BEING UNSPOILERED WHEN YOU LOOK THROUGH THEIR POSTS LIKE THIS.
Yes seriously, the spoiler just completely fails to work in their list of posts. Terrible terrible software design. I am very lucky the little bit I saw before immediately clicking away didn’t reveal any information about their alignment, but still... huge gigantic warning for all, DO NOT DO WHAT I DID.
Anyway, lean town because I don’t think scum would be pressuring heury so much.

Onto the rest of the players soon, but for now I’d like to quickly ask @Snide Sniper if it’s possible to figure out the forum software in a way that doesn’t leave Gojoe posts unspoilered when reading through someone’s posts. It’d be way easier to quickly look through people’s stuff then.
@patzer you need to run what you saw past the Mods

That is a problem with this forum software. Waiting to see what Patzer's read list looks like when done.
User avatar
moody7277
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:14 pm
Location: Extreme Southern Texas

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by moody7277 »

Wam wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:27 pm
moody7277 wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:51 pm Boomfrog's point 3 in his rebuttal is the main point about heury. He isn't going to be posting here anymore so the only info we're going to get from him is when he flips when he's permadead (as opposed to being just mostly dead).

Vote: huery

@boomfrog: Return the favor from D1 and join me.
Do you mean because he can't post or because he just isn't posting for whatever reason?
It's been two RL days plus a bit since heury's been rezzed, and he went dark about the same amount of time before the end of D1, so he's had plenty of time to show if he was still interested in the game. Maybe he should be the mod's problem?
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

@moody probably a good suggestion.

at what point will huery be replaced if any?
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

patzer wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:42 amOnto the rest of the players soon, but for now I’d like to quickly ask @Snide Sniper if it’s possible to figure out the forum software in a way that doesn’t leave Gojoe posts unspoilered when reading through someone’s posts. It’d be way easier to quickly look through people’s stuff then.
@patzer (and others who find it useful), I don't know what exactly you're currently doing, but I go through everybody's posts by going to the bottom of this thread, and using the order by author option. This orders the thread by author, in time order, so you can just jump to the starting point of their posts and view things in order.
patzer wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:42 am Jimbob: initially skeptical of heury wagon but later joined on. Reason for initial skepticism seems a bit odd but logical, still downgrading my initial lean-town rating to neutral
I honestly have no memory of being sceptical. Heury has been one of my scummiest reads (if not the scummiest read) since game start. I've posted a lot of other stuff that pretty much everyone views as townie. What do you think of that content?
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

EBWOP: I've just gone through my D1 posts and I cannot see anything that could be remotely explained as me being sceptical of the heuristically_alone elimination at any point. @patzer, please explain what gave you this impression.
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by Wam »

Wam wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:22 pm @moody probably a good suggestion.

at what point will huery be replaced if any?
Thinking about this more who would want to replace into that slot now!
User avatar
patzer
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:47 pm

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by patzer »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:25 pm@patzer (and others who find it useful), I don't know what exactly you're currently doing, but I go through everybody's posts by going to the bottom of this thread, and using the order by author option. This orders the thread by author, in time order, so you can just jump to the starting point of their posts and view things in order.
thank you. I was clicking on the button under your name where it says “posts: 14”
I honestly have no memory of being sceptical. Heury has been one of my scummiest reads (if not the scummiest read) since game start. I've posted a lot of other stuff that pretty much everyone views as townie. What do you think of that content?
it was the odd focus on the heury!survivor possibility and potential for not yeeting him this turn, although that might admittedly not be enough for a downgrade from town to neutral for you
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:47 am
patzer wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:30 am
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:49 am @patzer - cult!heury is almost ruled out by mod confirmation that dead players don't show up in the cult numbers. Did you miss this? Also, what about scum with resurrection power?
Oh that changes things. Where was that mod post? I don’t remember it.
madge wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:49 am
Dead cult members do not appear in the total.
This was in response to my question a few posts earlier.

What about the second question I posted in the post you quoted?
I... do not see how this affects my hypothesis?

If there were 1 cult member at the start of the day and they since resurrected+recruited heury, making their numbers 2 now, this would be entirely in line with the info we have?
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Right, starting to update my reads. My previous main reads post was here.

LaserGuy (previously slightly scummy, partly due to PoE and his Snide Sniper interactions):
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 14: Suzaku and I townreading TSS for same reason: taking probable NAI and treating as townslip. TSS is kind of scummy, so scum-leaning him. Highlights what he looks for in newbie town, and doesn't think TSS has expressed this behaviour. Many things feel off to him. Not interested in yeeting SS. If SS town, will prove themselves later.
Post 15: Town of Salem doesn't impact his thinking.
Post 16: Not planning on voting unless to break a tie. Consider vote on heury.
Post 17: Heury is scum, but doesn't want to vote for reasons.
<Day 2>
Post 18: Unsure how to proceed without flip info.
Post 19: Resurrections could happen later. Don't think we can assume any rez or flip info. May be mostly in the dark until D3 or D4. Challenges bessie on why Town/Scum list would be correlated, due to at least four factions. Asks TSS to explain patzer "weak" read of heury versus own. Asks for updated thoughts by patzer and for other suspicious things by lower people. Asks what patzer thinks of people scumreading her at end of D1.
Post 20: somitomi answered bessie's question, and LG was asking bessie for an answer, trying to understand perspective. bessie evasiveness noted. Plans to go back over earlier parts of thread for interesting things. Continues to prod TSS for why giving patzer hard time for hedging.
Post 21: Hopes won't have to yeet everyone twice. Not opposed to yeeting heury to get result, but feels waste. Doesn't disagree it's possible to scum hunt for team, but doesn't understand why bessie expects thinks people's reads reflect likelihood of a team. Not going to wait for follow-ups to comment on things. Asks why patzer not considering anti-social survivor, also getting possible cult TMI vibes.
Post 22: on holiday, but don't expect much from him.
I'd like updated reads from LaserGuy, as I haven't seen any real ordering since my previous read of him, and indeed there's even a bit of a lack of indication on who he finds scummy/townie at this point beyond a couple of players. I do like his pressure on bessie, and basically agree with his comments there. I don't agree with his somewhat dogmatic approach to identifying The Snide Sniper as not newbie town. It feels like he's dismissing possibilities because it doesn't fit his mental model. Don't get me wrong, his points do indeed often help identify newbie town, but but I don't believe the lack of them rules it out. Maybe I'm misunderstanding his point though? I honestly don't remember which game was my first town game, so I can't really say how it fitted with my personal experience there. Maybe up a point or two from my previous read, pending his reads.

moody7277 (previously mild town, nothing particularly objectionable, some concern about Suzaku opinion):
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 12: reads list - already commented on.
<Day 2>
Post 13: No flips predicable, but annoying. Waiting to vote seems a good option.
Post 14: Early day thoughts: previous late -1 read was silly. Reading patzer's hammering as accident, but doesn't negate other scummy stuff. Bandwagon analysis conditional, but might be worthwhile. Heury will have to do fast talking if he wants to not get eliminated again rezzed at noon. Unsure whether rattled by groupthink or busy outside.
Post 15: Asks mods about order of operation. Does bandwagon analysis after my request. wam 3rd vote cliche = scum. Breaking tie, if heury didn't put down a defensive vote. wam bussing heury doesn't make sense. wam/patzer scum team possible, but not necessarily indicative. bessie decisive vote suggests rules out heury/bessie scum team, so she looks townie if heury flips scum, but town heury does not imply scum bessie. Heury flipping scum does not clear TSS. Town heury, NAI for TSS. Same applies to patzer. Has hypothesis why LG wouldn't vote. Asked why I didn't. Timing of counterwagon suggests one of him and BF possible scum team and heury if scum!heury.
Post 16: Responds to my comments in response to his wagon analysis. Cult tricky due to no ability to read connections. Would take a stroke of luck to find them. Still shaky on how AS affects tactics.
Post 17: Sees no reason why town would voluntarily rez heury, so either was scum trying to waste an elim, or to get team back, or was involuntary. Ready to permavote heury. patzer D2 meaty post rehash of previous reads. Refutes cult heury. Suzaku +10, me and LG +4.
Post 18: Explains why mafia not back at square 1.
Post 19: Agrees with BF re. mafia!heury, as not going to be posting any more, so no more info until he flips. Votes heury and asks BoomFrog to join him.
Post 20: Heury maybe the mod's problem?
In hindsight, moody's comment in his post 14 on heury needing to do some fast talking if he gets rezzed is an interesting post, given what happened shortly after... I feel like this either means moody has resurrection stuck on his mind, possibly because he knew heury was being rezzed. On the other hand, I don't think scum!moody who deliberately rezzed heury, or knew that he would be rezzed, e.g. due to being buddies with him, would be that overt, so it's probably just a bit of a case of coincidental premonition.

The only other meatiness in moody's posts today was his wagon analysis. I think I already highlighted some concerns about this, but to recap, I feel like it was done from a straightforward mafia versus town point of view which just doesn't feel right, and I'm worried means he's coming from a TMI point of view (e.g. he's the cult leader, so everyone else is essentially town or mafia, excepting the survivor, who he's not thinking about for reasons). In particular, he seems to be suggesting people (bessie) look townie if heury flips scum. He could also be a heury scum-buddy, happy to hard-bus him today, knowing that it's unlikely heury would survive the day. I also don't like that I had to prompt him to make that analysis. moody slips down to a scum lean.

patzer (previously moderately scummy):
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 6: Points to explanation for suspicions of LG. Suzaku vote was largely random, votes and hammers heury.
Post 7: Acknowledges hammer.
<Day 2>
Post 8: Was hoping for info from heury flip. Will try to analyse people.
Post 9: Heury resurrection unexpected. Hypothesises about who resurrected him. No reasons for town to rez heury (Suzaku would have been target). Heury mafia easily explained by mafia having resurrection ability. Heury cult, and goes into details of how recruit might happen as a result of rez. Struggling to see any argument for town!heury. Asks for his explanation. Promises new list, but doesn't actually provide one.
Post 10: Didn't remember cult number post.
Post 11: Mafia with rez ability feels overpowered, without counterbalancing power (doesn't actually answer my question why she hadn't answered).
Post 12: Something to go on given heury likely non-town. Analyses bessie (tentative lean scum, counterwagon info is a distraction). Me neutral (due to scepticism of heury wagon). Moody lean town because doesn't think scum would be pressuring heury so much.
Post 13: Explains her read of me on odd focus on the heury!survivor possibility, then backs down on it being a reason to downgrade me.
I have some serious issues with patzer's content. Her hypothesis post is written to answer the question "who resurrected heury", and then hypothesises three different cases: heury is town, heury is Mafia, and heury is cult, missing out heury is survivor. Then, her actual analysis is written not about "heury is town" etc but rather "heury was rezzed by town"? Yet a conclusion of "heury is town" is then ruled out. I don't know what to make of it. There are a number of possible things I could pick at here. Option 1) patzer is the Survivor, and so didn't bother to analyse this case, because she knows heury isn't. Option 2) patzer is Mafia and knows that heury isn't her buddy, and therefore, knowing that she didn't rez him, subconsciously doesn't include the mafia rezzing town!heury case. Option 3) patzer got herself mixed up in her analysis of which side she was analysing. Option 4) patzer ignored the case where the rez was self-activated, so maybe that's because patzer knows something about what's going on (could be any number of possibilities here). There are probably others I haven't thought of.

Her bessie read feels like a case of where she's decided beforehand what the conclusion will be. Don't get me wrong, this is possible for town to do too, but it is still a negative point. Her backing down on her downgrading of me when I confronted her feels suspicious too, like she's just making up reasons to not have everyone as town. I even have issues with her moody read, although this is mostly a game strategy objection (I think scum will quite happily pressure players they think they can easily get rid of). Finally, patzer hasn't answered my question why she didn't originally answer one of my questions (even though in retrospect it didn't make sense to ask it). Overall, scum. I wouldn't oppose voting patzer off today (although I'm leaving my vote on heury for now, since I think the flip would help a little, at least).

somitomi (previously townie side of neutral):
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 9: Around near, but not at, deadline. Keeps going back and forth on TSS and LG made point about TSS pushing him towards scummy. Doesn't care whether scum reads make sense as a team or not.
<Day 2>
Post 10: Catching up. Unsure why bessie thinks somi thinks heury could be bussing.
Post 11: Can't concentrate. Hopes LG wrong about waiting to D3 for flips. Wouldn't expect much from a wagon analysis without a flip, but moody's feels superficial.
Post 12: Still doesn't get where bessie is coming from re. heury bussing. No other comment on bessie's post. moody's analysis felt formulaic - not examining progression leading up to votes. Engages with wam re. alignment of dead people being up for discussion, and actually votes Suzaku as an experiment, asking why wam didn't. Doesn't see why mafia would willingly revive town!heury - pushes back to square 1.
somitomi hasn't posted in over 48 hours. Requesting mod prod.

somitomi has posted very little content Day 2. I'm in agreement with there being issues with moody's analysis (see above), and his point about wam not voting for a dead player to test out the theory is quite reasonable. I'm giving a slight pass due to potential real life issues, so slightly townie is my overall conclusion.

Town
Suzaku
wam*
somitomi
The Snide Sniper*
bessie*
BoomFrog*
LaserGuy
moody
patzer
heuristically_alone
Scum
(*rereads still pending).

That's about all I've got time for now. Will try to find time in the coming days to do more analysis, but I'm pretty busy this week, so I may be restricted to short posts and the usual morning response post for the next few days.
User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by somitomi »

moody7277 wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:33 pm They're not exactly at square one. Suzaku is still un-rezzed, and unless he's the AS he is town. Heury is still seen by everyone as scummy as hell, so he is most likely to be the elim toDay, if nothing else just to get a friggin flip. This would leave scum mostly unlooked for and give them a free night of mischief. We're likely at 6-2-1-1, unless Suzaku was the AS in which case we're at 7-2-1. By dawn of D3 with a heury re-elim, the worst case scenario is 3-2-2-1 (I'm assuming rezzes only happen at noon). Things that could affect that: town aligned vig, unrecruitables, scum NKing the recruit, other crazy Madge imponderables.
Ok, maybe not square one, but if they left Heury for dead, they could've had us at 5-2-1-1/6-2-1 today and possibly start D3 with town not being in plurality. Not sure if taking it easy today is worth much if it takes an extra day to secure the win.
Sabrar wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:35 pm There are no clues in the flavor that we want players to find.
Cool, finding the clues now has an illicit thrill to it. :twisted:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:40 am Case 3: heury is Mafia. In this case, although voting him off is not a waste, it does mean we have no clear link to a scum buddy. The longer he's around and talking, the more chance something will slip.
Wow, an argument for keeping mafia around, that's kind of a curveball.
bessie wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:40 am I feel that auto-voting heury today would be sub optimal because without a counterwagon we will have nothing to analyze from D2. I also feel it would be more beneficial to eliminate someone else today and get the timer started on their flip, and save heury for tomorrow. On the other hand, I don’t want to drag a non contributing player through two more game days so I won’t object to heury if that is the consensus.
I think a player going AWOL should be a mod-problem, not a yeet. Otherwise you have a point abput defaulting to Heury not giving us much information, but ifon the flipside going into D3 with zero actual flips isn't great either.
—◯-◯
User avatar
bessie
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:10 am

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by bessie »

Something came up last night so I wasn't able to work on this. Here are my updated reads, not as thorough as I would like but I need to go out for a few hours.

BoomFrog
From D1, I still don’t see how Suzaku’s case on The Snide Sniper changed BoomFrog from a scum to a town lean. BoomFrog what is you current read of The Snide Sniper?
D1 had a very early vote on heury, but switched to patzer with decent reasoning.
There’s a couple places where he’s not following closely, like where he asked for my reads, I offered to BoomFrog specifically to post my D1 incomplete reads and he didn’t reply, when I did post them he mistakenly thought they were current reads.
Thoughts are I see BoomFrog trying to figure things out. Town lean.

Heury
Heury hasn’t made a post since my previous list. Non-town.

jimbobmacdoodle
From D1, I think the early gambit is likely townie.
Has continuously posted reads and list so we always know what he is thinking.
We don’t agree on my D1 read of Suzaku and I don’t see why jimbob doesn’t see my points.
Throughout the game I feel jimbob is trying to solve. Town.

LaserGuy
D1 agree I with most of his thoughts.
Asked me a question regarding a question I had for somitomi and possibly influenced somitomi’s answer. I would look at LaserGuy if somitomi is mafia.
He made an early reads list but hasn’t updated it, or given updated town-scum since early D1.
D2 content has mostly been questioning other players. This is ok but without some opinions of his own it is suspicious. Could be looking for an opening to cover a scum partner, but he gets a RL weekend pass for now. Neutral pending more D2 content.

moody7277
Decent content on D1; early reads list, updated.
Followed BoomFrog and voted for patzer.
Re moody’s second reads list , it appears he saw some suspicion that I was I was seeing in Suzaku.
Overall I think he’s trying to solve and is not mafia, and is not on my list for today. Slight town lean.

patzer
From D1, patzer made an early reads list and a town-scum list, with many of the scum leans based on activity.
A lot of patzer’s posts feel like filler. She is spending a lot of time on game mechanics, which in itself is not suspicious, but is focusing on possible mechanics of heury’s role, which is suspicious. She had to be prodded to offer thoughts on other players and has only offered thoughts on a few players, and all thoughts are in relation to interactions with heury, see this post .
She is avoiding making a current town-scum list.
Interestingly patzer is suspicious of me, for voting her instead of heury.
I think patzer is non-town.

somitomi
He has responded to my questioning on heury, so I will reevaluate after heury’s flip.
I would like to know somitomi’s current reads and, if heury is mafia, who somitomi thinks might be heury’s partner.

I’ve been thinking about this:
somitomi wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:11 pm I don't really see why mafia would willingly revive town-heury. Just pushes them back to square one and potentially undoes the successful miselim.
If heury is town and eliminated again today, then you have your answer.
Neutral but that quote is slightly suspicious.

Suzaku
No updates, except that Suzaku is likely not mafia or cult.

The Snide Sniper
His reasoning for his heury vote feels unconvincing, though a lot has to do with the timing, and that he had to be asked for it.
On reread, on D1 P3 The Snide Sniper made this read of patzer:
The Snide Sniper wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:35 am For patzer I'd say lean scum, at least if heury turns out to be scum. This read:
patzer wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:28 pm heury: Something about his vibes is pointing me towards lean scum. For example this message is needlessly teasing at the possibility of him not being town, and I don't see why a townie would do that even as a joke.
Seems way too weak when heury has basically been digging a hole for himself this whole time. Although I wouldn't put a strong scum lean on heury; he seems like he could just be clueless town.
Later P5 when BoomFrog switched his vote to patzer he quoted the same post but for a different reason. I want to note this so I don’t forget.
Still leaning scum on The Snide Sniper.

Wam
Defends patzer for accidental hammer, I am still suspicious of this explanation. If patzer is mafia I would look here for a possible connection.
Wam is suspicious of me for my wording on hammer vote, I believe this is cleared up now. I think this shows he is trying to solve.
Town lean, but would reevaluate if patzer is mafia.


Woof
bessie
Suzaku
jimbobmacdoodle
BoomFrog
moody7277
Wam
LaserGuy
somitomi
The Snide Sniper
patzer
heuristically_alone
Grr
User avatar
patzer
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:47 pm

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by patzer »

Growing increasingly confused by jimbob’s readings wrt me and my questions now.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:24 pm Then, her actual analysis is written not about "heury is town" etc but rather "heury was rezzed by town"? Yet a conclusion of "heury is town" is then ruled out. I don't know what to make of it.
This is an odd question as it seems patently obvious that non-town would not want to resurrect a member of town, unless they’re literally trying to lose. Jimbob’s confusion about this is... odd.
There are a number of possible things I could pick at here. Option 1) patzer is the Survivor, and so didn't bother to analyse this case, because she knows heury isn't. Option 2) patzer is Mafia and knows that heury isn't her buddy, and therefore, knowing that she didn't rez him, subconsciously doesn't include the mafia rezzing town!heury case. Option 3) patzer got herself mixed up in her analysis of which side she was analysing. Option 4) patzer ignored the case where the rez was self-activated, so maybe that's because patzer knows something about what's going on (could be any number of possibilities here). There are probably others I haven't thought of.

Her bessie read feels like a case of where she's decided beforehand what the conclusion will be. Don't get me wrong, this is possible for town to do too, but it is still a negative point. Her backing down on her downgrading of me when I confronted her feels suspicious too, like she's just making up reasons to not have everyone as town. I even have issues with her moody read, although this is mostly a game strategy objection (I think scum will quite happily pressure players they think they can easily get rid of). Finally, patzer hasn't answered my question why she didn't originally answer one of my questions (even though in retrospect it didn't make sense to ask it). Overall, scum. I wouldn't oppose voting patzer off today (although I'm leaving my vote on heury for now, since I think the flip would help a little, at least).
This analysis is one that sort-of sounds sensible on first read but when you dig into it it’s just nonsensical.

For starters jimbob has noticeably neglected to mention any possibility of a scum team of me and heury (presumably realizing its unlikeliness) and still puts as the two most scum-leaning players- if the two scummiest players on the list are two you cannot imagine on a team, that should be a sign something’s wrong, and yet jimbob ignores this elephant in the room.
Secondly he’s saying moody pressuring heury isn’t necessarily a town sign- which is true, there are multiple scum factions after all, but again it should surely be obvious that scum wouldn’t pressure off one of their own.

And thirdly, in all his analysis of stuff he’s entirely failed to explain why he doesn’t think the possibility of cult resurrecting+converting heury is reasonable.

Honestly? I’m getting suspicious here. The post does put heury at #10 (only justifiable position) but its entire body is obfuscation, speculating as to a town!heury without any explanation of how such a thing could have happened, and teasing as to the possibility of an alternative wagon. And also pointing out potential downsides to yeeting even a scum!heury is incredible as the alignment reveal would surely help us more than anything else would- he entirely fails to explain how he thinks yeeting someone non-heury and not revealing anyone’s alignment would actually be useful, and yet proposes it anyway.

One thing I will say is that jimbob was anti-heury enough on D1 that they were probably not on the same scum team on D1, but there are plenty of other options involving them both being scum. I don’t want to say for sure but this one post is making me much more suspicious.
User avatar
moody7277
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:14 pm
Location: Extreme Southern Texas

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by moody7277 »

Reads as of a week ago:
bessie:+3
boomfrog: +3.5
huery: -2.5
jimbob: +3.5
LaserGuy: +3
patzer: -2
somi: +1.5
Snide Sniper: -0.5 but with a bit of an error bar.
wam: +1

bessie: woof-grr list with jimbob LG on top, huery at bottom. 4th vote on heury. No claims for D2. late D1 reads post moot upon hammer. questions Snide about heury read. comparison of jimbob & Suzaku reading her, flavor hypothesis seems blown up, doesn't like LG trying to answer for somi. Sentiment list, scum only huntables currently, bucks the heury wagon by voting patzer.

Content is okay, pressure on patzer is good, but some of the lack of depth is a little worrying. +2

boomfrog: concern over deadline timing, asks bessie about her flavor->faction hypothesis. D2 joke about not being culted, declares Suzaku "almost certainly" town. Outside the box thinking prompted by jimbob, wants wam's opinion on eliminated players, TS list with LG Suzaku at top, group of 5 with scum in it, jimbob doing backwards logic, points out bessie inconsistency.

Good level of paranoia in his TS list, and other outside the box thinking on faction issues. +4

huery: literally nothing. -4, current vote.

jimbob: epic read records about Snide reaction trap ([Paul Hogan]Now that's a gambit[/Paul Hogan]), TS list with Suzaku somi town, heury patzer scum, questions about cult members, asks Snide about "night resurrection", seems satisfied with answer. Finalized TS list has LG scummier than most other people do, pokes me about analysis, reinterpreted question re bessie's read of Suzaku, rebuttal to my bandwagon analysis, responses to several people, makes a case to spare heury D2, votes heury after bf's rebuttal, no evidence of being skeptical of heury despite patzer's claim, parially updated reads list with Suzaku wam somi town, heury patzer me scum.

Interactions with pretty much everybody, some degree of paranoia even on his towniest read. Clearly townie. +4

LaserGuy: response to jimbob read of Snide, not voting but intent is heury, concern over lack of flips, pokes patzer on her read of heury, bit of sparring with bessie.

Some concern over other factions, most of his attention directed at bessie. +3.5

patzer: superficial guess at heury rez, placefiller TS list, responses to jimbob re her cases, partial reads distracted by technical issues, "confused" by jimbob's pressure, slightly into OMGUS territory.

Definitely a bit of crackage in this last post under jimbob's poking. Cynical view is actually of two minds here: either it's newbie scum coming unraveled or scum!jimbob playing break the newbie and doing a bang up job. Right now she's at -2.

somi: D1 scum reads not really supposed to be a team, doesn't like my bandwagon analysis with caveat of no flip to work from, votes Suzaku for test of dead, discussion with me re heury rez.

Feels like he's a bit limping along, but there's nothing overtly scummy there. +1

Snide: 5th vote on heury, rez a night action, answer to LG about heury read, TS list with LG jimbob most town, patzer heury scum. forgot vote justification, somi read not deep due to somi's content, fills in case for heury.

TS scum list seems kind of groupthink, also post hoc heury (even though the points he makes are valid). +0.5

wam: reads list with jimbob LG town, patzer heury scum. patzer hammer accidental, mafia uncultable from jimbob, eager to reply to question directed at Snide, reply to bessie poke about his patzer comment re hammer, very sure of town!LG read based on meta, lots of suspicion of bessie, 1st D2 vote on heury. Replies to jimbob poking him about his bessie comments, various replies.

Some spread in interaction, but a lot directed at bessie. Reads list may be a bit stale at this point. +1.5

List:
(Suzaku +9)
jimbob +4
boomfrog +4
LaserGuy +3.5
bessie +2
wam +1.5
somi +1
Snide +0.5
patzer -2
huery -4

Cynical view is reminding me (before jimbob does) that there are 3 to 4 anti-town out there and I don't have enough really scummy reads so I'm likely being bamboozled by the +4 guys. Maybe, we'll see.
User avatar
madge
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2021 4:51 am
Location: UTC+8

Re: Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap

Post by madge »

Image
if anyone wants to know what it is, click here
(it's apparently used for sewing)


Votals:
Heuri (3) - wam, moody, jimbob
Patzer (1) - bessie

With 10 alive, it's 6 votes to eliminate.

Dusk starts in about 3 days, 2 hours.


Having trouble finding a replacement. I have PMed our last option, if I don't have a confirmation in 24 hours I will modkill (and flip) Heuri rather than leave you lot to vote him off again as an exercise of pure frustration.

Regarding the spoiler search snafu, if Patzer thinks she didn't see anything worth writing home about, then we will take her at her word. Be careful with searches, everyone!

she/her
Plug: my vampire romance novel is finished!
Post Reply