Baldur's Gate Mafia (Absolute Power)

[Makhaira]

So if you're worried about both me and seven you can sort us both this phase by yeeting seven and let the scum sort me for you, else scum are looking at an insanely risky endgame

[EGW]

You are going to need to post a full reads list with reasoning.

[Makhaira]

Im getting there im still rereading

[Makhaira]

At this point, I am going to wait until 30 minutes before EOD, then vote JC.

Don't you scum read Heury though?

I'm scum reading both of them, but momentum looked like JC was going to be the elim. If we want to do in the wizard, I'm game for that.

Gross af post from moody here

[Makhaira]

I am suspicious of Somi, I just didn't feel a strong reason to vote him.

JC knocking the somi slot again

[Makhaira]

Vote: heury

To prevent a last minute vote switch.

Honestly the only post I didnt like from bessie here. If you knew you were posting this a minute before deadline, how realistic is it to fear a wagon swing in the last 60 seconds before deadline? If two people swapped in a coordinated fashion at EOD 1 anyway thats pretty much open wolfing and theyd be throwing the game for day 1 miselim

I think im reading too much into this though, I think this is just more bessies cautious personality coming thru, not scum guilt causing her to have to "justify" a hammer

[Makhaira]

The more I think about it why would scum!bessie even hammer there in the first place, highly doubt scum!bessie wants to even draw attention to herself by hammering when she knows the only two slots with votes on them are town. That hammer reveals that bessie genuinely preferred one flip to the other when they are equally beneficial to her as scum unless she is for some reason afraid of JC in endgame which I have a really hard time believing

[somitomi]

Well at the time the option was vote mak - town lean or vote seven - town. Then did re read and changed my seven read

Fair, although I feel like voting an indie out is suboptimal play here (come to think of it, your role spec suggests Seven peaces out after the dome either way, so based on that the only reasonable play is voting Mak, but then I would think you don't treat that as gospel).

I'm not sure I entirely understand why Mak would respond to his own downfall by incriminating his partner.

I meant incriminating Bessie, or trying to. Otherwise, what purpose would him voting Bessie initially be? It's certainly not productive.

So you're thinking bessie isn't Mak's partner and this was a feint to make us think Mak was bussing so we'd go for bessie after the flip?

Why does somi indicate there is a "mystery wrapped in an enigma" line here yet says in the same post that this is a "no reasoning, gut feel" post? Whats the point of even making this distinction if not to just "dress up" the readslist to make it seem like it has more depth than it does?

Because somi amuses himself with wacky little twists on established patterns like the use of a neutral line or calling Seven an enigma.

How are your reads looking like today?

I'm a little lost honestly right now. Between Seven and Mak I think Mak has higher mafia equity, although Mak posting his thoughts right now is making me second guess that. I want to go back and smell Wam's and moody's posts because I'm not sure what the former is up to right now and the latter's been kind of under the radar for me.

[Makhaira]

If you think scum!me NKs JC you are legitimately brain dead, the kill more or less kills me. Scum!me keeps JC around as a free slot to manipulate or miselim

You're actually one of the few people I think would kill him. You, maybe Wam cause he's chaotic and unpredictable. Best reasoning I could guess for his nk is to highlight the fact that both wagons were towny, thus making the active slots (me, ran, bessie) viable as you're doing now.

Claim or I'm dueling you.

why wouldnt other people have NK'd JC? It legitimately makes no sense to me that you think I on particular would pick JC. I couldve kept him as a miselim all game with consistent reasoning throughout

Your argument re scum flipping JC to "show both wagons were town and make the active slots viable" is tenuous at best. Your framing here is motivated, labeling your coalition the "active" slots to tiptoe around the fact that you spearheaded a miselim. Not a grave sin on D1 but saying I NKd my simplest miselim push as scum!me so I could criticize you harder is kind of nonsense. I would have the same argument against your coalition whether JC flips or not. Scum!me wouldve chewed yall out for eliminating heury over JC anyway if heury flips town, I didnt need JC flipping AT ALL to do what youre claiming scum!me was setting myself up to do, and I lose my easy miselim target by doing so

[Makhaira]

I still dont feel great about heury but atleast I can trust town!heury in endgame

This literally makes no sense as reasoning to switch off someone. Again, what's the basis of this? It comes off to me as someone just finding a place to vote.

you cannot tell me with a straight face that you trust town!JC to solve and vote correctly in an endgame over town!heury, and if you legitimately do believe this thank you for telling me so I can update my priors about your judgment about endgame states

[Makhaira]

Also again, using JC's flip as a defense isn't really productive. You haven't commented on the day play aspect I asked you about. So seems like you are dishonest here. I know you like to argue so I feel you would have delved more into this, you are almost as annoying to argue with as Macman, but there is less of that here.

this actually made me lol, what a throwback, and flattering in a way

[LaserGuy]

The two stand opposed each other, hands clasped on the hilt of the blade. The dagger seems to have a mind of its own, whipping and writhing like a snake, desperately seeking to land a blow on one or the other. The rest of you seemed locked in place, held back by the creeping shadows that surround you.

A duel has been compelled. The only players available for voting for today are Seven and Makhaira. Votes to other players (including no elimination) will not be counted.

Votals:
Makhaira (1): EGW
Seven (2): Wam, Makhaira (L-2)
Not voting: bessie, somitomi, moody, Seven

With 7 alive it takes 4 to hammer. Deadline is Tuesday, April 16 at 9pm, in roughly 8 hours. Deadline timer

[Seven]

If you think scum!me NKs JC you are legitimately brain dead, the kill more or less kills me. Scum!me keeps JC around as a free slot to manipulate or miselim

You're actually one of the few people I think would kill him. You, maybe Wam cause he's chaotic and unpredictable. Best reasoning I could guess for his nk is to highlight the fact that both wagons were towny, thus making the active slots (me, ran, bessie) viable as you're doing now.

Claim or I'm dueling you.

why wouldnt other people have NK'd JC? It legitimately makes no sense to me that you think I on particular would pick JC. I couldve kept him as a miselim all game with consistent reasoning throughout

Your argument re scum flipping JC to "show both wagons were town and make the active slots viable" is tenuous at best. Your framing here is motivated, labeling your coalition the "active" slots to tiptoe around the fact that you spearheaded a miselim. Not a grave sin on D1 but saying I NKd my simplest miselim push as scum!me so I could criticize you harder is kind of nonsense. I would have the same argument against your coalition whether JC flips or not. Scum!me wouldve chewed yall out for eliminating heury over JC anyway if heury flips town, I didnt need JC flipping AT ALL to do what youre claiming scum!me was setting myself up to do, and I lose my easy miselim target by doing so

This whole thing is silly to me in general. Do you really not see there is no way to say why JC was killed?

[Seven]

Vote: Mak

[Makhaira]

I need to reread to see why scum would make that NK, someone must have soul read him as a strong PR or something because I saw the slot entirely as a liability

Did you get an answer to this? What do you think of my moody theory?

sketchy post here from Wam. Asking me if I answered the question for myself as a first instinct is weird instead of just positing his own theory

What exactly is your "moody theory"? Please explain it here

[Seven]

That is the definition of a distinction without a difference and you know it

There aren't the same. For the record though I don't suss you because of the JC wifom.

[Makhaira]

Seven literally stop flipping the question back to me and answer it, you a flagrantly dodging right now and trying to flip the burden back on to me so you dont have to defend your "lol this is just WIFOM" handwaving of my point

[Wam]

Jc - con town
Interesting looking through posts, thier the ony 1 I'm aware of floating moody suspicion

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65257#p65257
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65259#p65259

@moody why did you get off the JC wagon? I'm aware you may have said but going alphabetically by author.

[Makhaira]

That is the definition of a distinction without a difference and you know it

There aren't the same. For the record though I don't suss you because of the JC wifom.

are youa actually arguing that "WIFOM" arguments are only proper in a defensive posture when responding to accusations from others? That make no sense whatsoever

[Seven]

I still dont feel great about heury but atleast I can trust town!heury in endgame

This literally makes no sense as reasoning to switch off someone. Again, what's the basis of this? It comes off to me as someone just finding a place to vote.

you cannot tell me with a straight face that you trust town!JC to solve and vote correctly in an endgame over town!heury, and if you legitimately do believe this thank you for telling me so I can update my priors about your judgment about endgame states

I do. As I said, he won the prior game I was in with him by voting right in final 3 based off solid reasoning and against someone that everyone else had town read throughout the game. Regardless, my point here is that even if you believe JC can't be trusted in endgame, it's not a solid reason to switch off the person you're scumreading, particularly because you have no evidence that heury would perform differently in endgame than JC.

[Seven]

That is the definition of a distinction without a difference and you know it

There aren't the same. For the record though I don't suss you because of the JC wifom.

are youa actually arguing that "WIFOM" arguments are only proper in a defensive posture when responding to accusations from others? That make no sense whatsoever

It's entirely logical.

[Makhaira]

I literally have evidence that heury would perform better than JC in endgame because Ive seen heury actually scum hunt and produce legitimate solves. JC has literally never done that

And no, WIFOM logic is still the same logic, and suffers from the same fallacious traits, whether marshalled affirmatively or defensively. Im really having a hard time believing you actually believe what youre arguing here

[Seven]

Using counterevidence to nullify an argument.

Argument
Premise: Jack wouldn't kill me if he was scum.
Premise: I am alive.
Conclusion: Jack is scum.

Counterargument
Jack killed you before when he was scum. Therefore, the first premise is false, and the conclusion is unsound. Jack could be scum but not because he wouldn't kill you.

Using WIFOM to promote the idea you are town
Argument
Premise: Eating cheese is scummy.
Premise: Frank is eating cheese.
Conclusion: Frank is scummy.

Counterargument
The person who died isn't someone I would kill, therefore I am not scum.

This is not a valid counterargument. The nullifying counterargument disproves a premise of an argument, thus making it invalid. The WIFOM argument does not address the premises but introduces something new that cannot be verified.

[Wam]

If you have any questions for me left today you have about 30 min

[EGW]

Driving to martial arts. Be back later.