Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 2)

[Seven]

So he wanted to see if I was willing to yeet bessie. That's why he ran the wagon at her last minute.

Seven please react to this.

I wasn't testing Boom, I was testing you.

So what's the conclusion from all your questions? And to clarify, you do know I could never have any legitimate ire toward you right?

[EGW]

Votecount 2.13

1. Boomfrog
2. Swiss
3. Madge
4. Seven
5. JC
6. Fonti
7. bessie
8. Sabrar

Not voting:
Boomfrog, Swiss, Madge, Seven, JC, Fonti, Bessie, Sabrar

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
N/A

With 8 players, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 2 is Friday December 15th at 11:59PM EST

[Seven]

Mastermind
Seven - defended wam, fred, and mak

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

IMG_0507.jpeg (171.75 KiB) Viewed 58657 times

The GOAT coming for boomfrog

Town
Sabrar - has a pony avatar and also just obvious
Madge - town slip Sabrar pointed out.

Mafia
Boomfrog

Sort
Swiss
JC
Fonti
bessie

[Seven]

bessie

Cons

• *Didn't read the rules fully which is out of character.
• Thought I was scum for defending scumFred. Thought Wam was scum for defending scumFred. Both town, still thinks I'm scum.
• Likes the nonsense Swiss was spewing.
• Hasn't made any pushes. Was the Fred push even real.

Pros

• Thinks scum shot Fred. Super TMI as it's counter to what others thought. Don't think scum would say this especially since she had scum as her biggest suspect so why would scum shoot Fred, what the heck. Don't think scum tend to have these weird takes.
• BoomFrog also assumed Mak was vigged. As scum, he wouldn't want to make this association with bessie. Therefore they are not partners.
• Asked BoomFrog if she should put herself at E-2. Very non-partnery. And if Boom believed I was testing him, he would have answered yes. Therefore not partners.

Conclusion: Town

[Seven]

Swiss

Cons

• Throwing shade at me all game. Earlier suspicion makes sense as the difference in play style would have drawn his attention, but this should have dissolved once I modified to a dgames-esque play style and showed my towniness at EoD.
• Hasn't made any pushes or in-depth reads. Just responds to comments like good, good, good.

Pros

• Thinks that me boasting about my play in the last game is reminiscent to him stating his alignment each game. I think this sort of thought is much more likely to come from someone who doesn't know my alignment.
• Anchoring bias could account for why he still believes I'm scum even though I switched to an abrasive playstyle.

Conclusion: Town

Final Conclusion: The scum team is exactly BoomFrog, Fonti, and JC.

[Seven]

I've mentioned this before in past games—I believe there are only a few times throughout an entire mafia game where scum actually do something that is indicative of their alignment. These moments occur in either novel situations or at points where they must make a public move that is in favor of their win condition. The latter generally only occurs near the EoD, and you can increase the odds that scum make an alignment-indicative action by inserting novelty through the process of destabilizing wagons (e.g. moody > bessie > jc > bessie). This forces scum to act in order to secure a wagon that is in their interest, as they otherwise don't know where town is going to land. The below is one of these alignment-indicative actions:

Bolded is a town only thought, I don't think JC faked that.

Vote Bessie

does it make sense though? why wouldn't scum look at the town roles in order to decide what roles they want for themselves

It absolutely no sense at all, which is why it's not a fake slip.

I would argue that this is the only truly alignment-indicative post that Fonti has made this game. I implore you all to reread through the EoD D1, starting around the time of Fonti's Moody unvote. Both her and Boom were attempting to prevent a wagon on JC even though they didn't have much prior build-up to a town read of him.

After my reaction of "..." to JC's weird post, Boom tried to spin it as a town slip. He tried to bring that up again when I voted JC. I pointed out that it's nonsensical and Fonti jumped in and tried to spin that as townie. This is the scum team.

I'm ready to vote whenever Sabrar gives me the go-ahead. I prefer Fonti, but I know people want Boom so that's fine. I just think he's vengeful, and if that's what you want to avoid, Fonti is the better choice.

[Seven]

EBWOP: she had scum as her biggest suspect > he had Fred as her biggest suspect

[Sabrar]

Madge - town slip Sabrar pointed out.

It was not intended as showing a town-slip. madge herself mentioned in that same post that she subbed in after D0 discussions, so her response needs to be treated differently. I just found it interesting that noone noticed it until now, even though people were actively looking for such a tell (me included). That's why boomfrog's reaction to this feels faked.

Final Conclusion: The scum team is exactly BoomFrog, Fonti, and JC.

I have a problem with your method. You are using PoE but stop immediately once you find enough townie people. I also don't get your conviction on Swiss, I think both points in the Pro section can be faked by him if he's as good as you say.

I would argue that this is the only truly alignment-indicative post that Fonti has made this game. I implore you all to reread through the EoD D1, starting around the time of Fonti's Moody unvote. Both her and Boom were attempting to prevent a wagon on JC even though they didn't have much prior build-up to a town read of him.

And once you have landed on a specific team you are interpreting events in that light. This is exactly what I mentioned in my reply to boomfrog here.
I will reread eod today but you should also try to reread with a fresh pair of eyes, without any preconceptions.

I'm ready to vote whenever Sabrar gives me the go-ahead.

That is not how it works. Personally I would be happy if we could come to a decision tomorrow before I go to bed just so that my brain doesn't stay in overdrive through the night, but that would force others to miss eod. It's simply the curse of timezones.

[Seven]

I have a problem with your method.

I know. I anticipated this response. It's too energy-consuming to dive into the full scope of my reasoning. The method is valid, however, and the conclusion is accurate.

Personally I would be happy if we could come to a decision tomorrow before I go to bed just so that my brain doesn't stay in overdrive through the night, but that would force others to miss eod. It's simply the curse of timezones.

This works for me. I'll vote whenever you do.

[Swiss]

Shivers run down my spine at how close Zen is acting to Sabrar.

That said, deadline is again at 5AM London time Friday and while I am obsessed I really don't want to set an alarm for 04:45.

I have, realistically, 14 hours left toDay.

Boom if we put you to e-1 you're claiming VT?

My dream scenario is to elim boom and vig zen.

[Swiss]

And seven why did you choose JC specifically for that question

@Zen

I assume I know why, but say why please

[Swiss]

This two good examples thing makes no sense

@Boom

[Swiss]

I find the idea that LG/Moody targeted bessie interesting and that maybe takes her out of my "towniest" box

i really feel strongly that LG/moody would target sabrar, so he'd still be my pick to vote off today.

I actually asked for weak doc to protect me. How does this impact your read of me?

Mason - Boom or Font
I'll Vig Bessie or Zen
Doc - Me
Weak Doc - Me
Cop - dont care

@Madge

[Seven]

And seven why did you choose JC specifically for that question

@Zen

I assume I know why, but say why please

I was considering JC teams and wanted to see how he spoke of you.

[Swiss]

I have, realistically, 14 hours left toDay.

It's 1 day 20 hrs left. Ignore this.

[Sabrar]

I should be working, I'm off after this.

I would argue that this is the only truly alignment-indicative post that Fonti has made this game. I implore you all to reread through the EoD D1, starting around the time of Fonti's Moody unvote. Both her and Boom were attempting to prevent a wagon on JC even though they didn't have much prior build-up to a town read of him.

I think you guys may be using town slip as synonymous with town tells. I consider a slip to be an accidental reveal of one's alignment due to a mistake or misunderstanding. A tell is an indicator of one's alignment. A town slip is one form of a town tell.

For example, Swiss being eager and inquisitive could be considered a town tell, but it's not a town slip. Bessie not knowing that 3 town roles were given out would be a town slip. With that in mind, Boom are you saying that's a town tell or town slip from Fred?

If the former, I agree with you.

Based on the definition you give here I would argue that JC made a town-slip.

I don't know if anyone else did that, but I felt at the time that scum would have no interest in looking at the roles for town until they knew what roles they ended up with.

He basically claimed that he thought that scum-roles would be assigned first, which he would obviously know to be untrue if he participated in D0 discussion. This is similar to your example regarding bessie. I'm curious why boomfrog decided to agree with you and downgrade it to a tell here.

boom immediately declares him town and sticks to it.
fonti puts JC in the votable pile here. Backs off a bit here. Gets to here and agrees with boom. Finally makes the post you quoted here which is just the reiteration of the previous one.

At this point there are 2 possibilities:
Scenario 1: JC is scum. The slip is fake.
- it is likely (but not certain) that he was coached to fake. If so, the coaching is very likely to come from an experienced player.
- the reason for faking something like that is to use it later as evidence to argue that player's townieness. It suggests that those who are immediately declaring him as town were preparing for it and therefore are his scum-buddies. However it can also happen that a town-player who is actively looking for precisely such tells feels validated in finding it and jumps to a premature conclusion.

Scenario 2: JC is town. The slip is real.
- town!boom is happy to have found a slip (but then why is it downgraded later?). scum!boom is forced to acknowledge the slip to remain consistent.
- town!fonti has a natural progression and sticks to the town-read after boom points it out. scum!fonti could agree with Mak or could side with boom. There were 4 possible wagons at that point, fonti declared not to be voting for 2 townies (moody + JC in this scenario), plus we know wam was town as well. So fonti didn't mind the possibility of bessie getting yeeted, so bessie must be town in this case. Given that, scum!fonti didn't really care how the JC read turned out.

One final observation: at the time JC made that post there were no votes or pressure on him. So it's not like the scum-team would have been in any type of rush to make that play. They may have done it as a precaution but the push on JC could not have been foreseen as it came from Mak 3 hours later during the scramble.

In conclusion, if JC is scum then it becomes more likely that his buddies are boom+fonti (but this is not a certainty and the timing is still a bit questionable). This reasoning does not work in reverse, as the reactions from boom and fonti are not necessarily indicative of JC's alignment.

[boomfrog]

This two good examples thing makes no sense

@Boom

I don't care and your question is a dumb waste of time. Seven's not going to back down so I need to exactly figure out the solve so the vig can follow my reads. I don't have any time for your distractions.

[boomfrog]

the push on JC could not have been foreseen as it came from Mak 3 hours later during the scramble.

I doubt it's relevant but a push on JC as a low volume player near EoD was almost inevitable and was predictable as people couldn't find anything actually scummy to latch onto. It's a natural flow of D1.

[Seven]

I should be working, I'm off after this.

I would argue that this is the only truly alignment-indicative post that Fonti has made this game. I implore you all to reread through the EoD D1, starting around the time of Fonti's Moody unvote. Both her and Boom were attempting to prevent a wagon on JC even though they didn't have much prior build-up to a town read of him.

I think you guys may be using town slip as synonymous with town tells. I consider a slip to be an accidental reveal of one's alignment due to a mistake or misunderstanding. A tell is an indicator of one's alignment. A town slip is one form of a town tell.

For example, Swiss being eager and inquisitive could be considered a town tell, but it's not a town slip. Bessie not knowing that 3 town roles were given out would be a town slip. With that in mind, Boom are you saying that's a town tell or town slip from Fred?

If the former, I agree with you.

Based on the definition you give here I would argue that JC made a town-slip.

I don't know if anyone else did that, but I felt at the time that scum would have no interest in looking at the roles for town until they knew what roles they ended up with.

He basically claimed that he thought that scum-roles would be assigned first, which he would obviously know to be untrue if he participated in D0 discussion. This is similar to your example regarding bessie. I'm curious why boomfrog decided to agree with you and downgrade it to a tell here.

This is a separate thing. We are talking about Fred here.

viewtopic.php?p=57869#p57869

[Seven]

This two good examples thing makes no sense

@Boom

I don't care and your question is a dumb waste of time. Seven's not going to back down so I need to exactly figure out the solve so the vig can follow my reads. I don't have any time for your distractions.

This is rather inefficient when you could simply case Fonti and get people to vote her. I already said I'm willing to do so. You just need 3 more.

[fontisian]

@Bessie were you scumreading Mak before he flipped?

Not really, but I wasn’t townreading him either. At the end of D1 (until Wam claimed) I was confident I had solved the game, and didn’t bother trying very hard to sort Mak. Or moody, or Madge. Those three ended up on the scummy side of my Woof-Grr list based on my unreliable gut.

Is it normal for you to have that kind of confidence in a day 1 solve?

Also, apologies, I'm not trying to ignore you. It's just hard to interact when we have very different schedules.

[Swiss]

If everyone says yes I'll vote boom

3. Madge if you're vig will you vig zen?
5. JC if you're vig will you vig zen?
6. Fonti if you're vig will you vig zen?
7. bessie if you're vig will you vig zen?
8. Sabrar if you're vig will you vig zen?

[fontisian]

If everyone says yes I'll vote boom

3. Madge if you're vig will you vig zen?
5. JC if you're vig will you vig zen?
6. Fonti if you're vig will you vig zen?
7. bessie if you're vig will you vig zen?
8. Sabrar if you're vig will you vig zen?

If I'm vig, I'll shoot the next person who coaches the vig.

[Swiss]

If we as a group fail to agree on this then we Elim Zen.

There is no way on God’s green earth he can be alive toMorrow

[fontisian]

Caveat because I haven't finished catching up and I reserve the right to change my mind later.

I'm worried about a boom/Swiss scum team, where boom is vengeful.

Then if we yeet boom and vig shoots me or zen, we lose. I'm probably going to deeply regret saying this, but it may be better to yeet me, if I'm just going to get vigged anyway.