HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[Seven]

Time to reveal my hand. Higher up = more wolfy, lower = less wolfy

Wolves
EGW
Bessie
Adum

Substitute Wolf (If Wrong on Adum)
JC

Town but Weird
Boom - Indy Potential
Zeniba - No Indy Potential, but does have Mafia Potential
heury - Important Town PR

Town Core
Makhaira/Somitomi/Moody/LaserGuy/Gluelock
Seven

Details to follow shortly.

[AdumbroDeus]

system.out.println("

If you believe the complex theatre you're proposing is possible without coordination then my point about whether or not you knew about all chat being nightchat is irrelevant, you're objectively wrong and this case is scummy AF.

Yes, I simply assume that Zen and yourself would know each others alignment as mafia are informed. I think your argument is a reach, since it requires me to think about whether or not mafia are talking with each other or not, when I'm just calling it as I see it. Also on the timing, I never considered it at first, but then it made more sense with my scumread on Zen and a re-read, and seeing your response to me with a bigger picture rather than being in the moment. I don't have all the puzzle pieces at once, so it takes time for me to see the bigger picture.

So, you skimmed my interactions with Zen, decided Zen was mafia from the skim, skimmed again, decided I was scum with them and didn't try to figure what of coordination would be required to pull that off if we were the same factions and therefore decided it was theatre?

That you're saying it with a straight face as your actual rational makes me pretty sure I overestimated you. I'll think if scum EGW would try to pull something like this, but something like this due to complete lack of attention to detail and not thinking things through is well within your town game. I'm disappointed.

");

[Seven]

I think this is implausible considering the nature of the conversation and the direct use of your name. Additionally, you responded to heury regarding the matter.

I can only repeat myself, what my brain catches is hit and miss.

Now the list you've all been waiting for in which I solve the entire game (vaguely ordered town to scum):

TOWN CORE is Adum, taking the time to understand the disconnect bewteen Makhaira and Boomfrog was a solid start and they've kept that energy up
Enigmatic town
BoomFrog
Seven

Insufficient or inconclusive data (aka. the kettles I'm about to call black):
Makhaira: their tone in the early flavour discussion feels town, but since then they kinda sat back
moody: the strong townread on bessie early on is kind of odd, cf with the read on BoomFrog at the same time, but also seems to be just chilling
Gluelock: not much besides reacting to EGWs suspicion on them
JC: [NULL]
Zeniba: absolutely no idea where they're going with this single-mindend laser-focus on moody

Divergences
EGW: I can't quite put my finger on what feels off here honestly, pure gut
Heury: made kind of odd reads and somehow all related to bessie. I don't normally do this on D1, but this is kind of an associative read
Bessie: feels somewhat disengaged, unusually so given the strong start. I'm perfectly happy to take her explanation regarding me at face value (gift horses after all), but it's odd that she hasn't tunneled anybody (yet, pending the weekend)

All right, my sleep schedule is thoroughly messed up now, good night

Posts like this exemplify why Somi is underrated. This is straight fire, with 2/3 mafs identified. Unfortunately, he seems to be going in the exact opposite direction in his recent post.

Note: I believe this is the 4th time I've used the word 'fire' this game. The careful observer might consider that to be meaningful. For example, it might be that I am a Town Firefighter, hence why I know there is an Indy in this game. I assure you though, that is not the case.

[Seven]

Somethings wrong with the display I saw a this post from somi when I was posting, then a different post, then closed my browser and I see this post again.

Are you also seeing the giant square on my read post or is that just me

[EGW]

Town [EGW > Boomfrog > Somitomi > Bessie > Heury > Makhraira | Moody, JC, Zeniba, LaserGuy | Adum > Gluelock > Zen] Scum

[Zeniba]

The servers hummed hot, the power to run them causing the room they were in to heat, that then had to be cooled with air conditioning, wreaking havoc on the warming world that the Gatekeepers hoped friendly AI would save from disaster...

Votals:

Laserguy - 2 - Adum, EGW
Heury - 2 - Moody, Zeniba*
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Boomfrog
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy

* Zeniba seemed to imply that they're not voting for heury anymore but didn't tell me who they actually are voting so I will not verify this unless zeniba doesn't change votes at end of game.

Whoever hit the tied total first will be voted out if votes don't change before deadline.

It was another long catchup for me today so let me know if I got votes wrong. I probably did.

Please if you want my attention make sure you put it in bold - Sabrar hasn't been able to help out as much as previous years so it's very important that you do this.

Deadline is in just under 2 days

(For the record UTC+8 is the most populated timezone in the world, so makes the most sense as a neutral timezone - absolutely nothing to do with the fact it's the timezone I live in... It's set for noon Monday my local time because I can do all the daystart stuff during my lunch break...)

@madge (Still not voting for heury, that was an issue with the quote function, not a vote. Should still be on moody. Italicized the vote to show it wasn't mine, cause votes are supposed to be bolded instead.)

Town
heury - has owned more cats than dogs
Adum - most evidence of strong hunting this game. Clearly is thinking his thought process through
Zeniba - agree with the analysis that freddino's goodbye post came from town

(wat)

[somitomi]

heury - Important Town PR

Dude, what

Posts like this exemplify why Somi is underrated. This is straight fire, with 2/3 mafs identified. Unfortunately, he seems to be going in the exact opposite direction in his recent post.

Flattery will not work on me, but do keep talking about how underrated I am.

Note: I believe this is the 4th time I've used the word 'fire' this game. The careful observer might consider that to be meaningful. For example, it might be that I am a Town Firefighter, hence why I know there is an Indy in this game. I assure you though, that is not the case.

If you're gonna claim, just claim.

[Seven]

On Wolves

George
It's pretty obvious that George is scum here to anyone that has played with him a fair amount. He is a super obv towny as town and has difficulty playing as scum to the point where he'll often just go afk if he rolls it (btw George, thank you for not doing that this game and putting in the effort). I'm very impressed by the accuracy of Bluelock's read despite no prior meta on George.

Those paying attention to my play might have noticed that I've avoided giving any thoughts on him until now. I wanted him to play naturally and avoid things turning into a me vs George battle all day. George, you'll see in Gojoe after you're dead that I've had you as scum since your first post. All his little questions he asked here were performative:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Vote: EGW

Why? What are your reads?

I like this vote. Vote: EGW

Why? What are your scumreads?

Bessie read: +4.

Why did you give Bessie 4 points here? Any scumreads?

Overly concerned with voting for a "random" reason. This is a serious vote.

Boom. Why does that make Adumbro mafia here?

Glossing over the boomfrog-Makhaira interaction because reasons. We shall see if I am correct.

Can you elaborate here? Who do you think is scum?

[*]Needs more George, Blue, and JC.

Who is Blue?

Lots of whys. Need more hows

Note: heury bringing attention to these is a great look for heury

@heuristically_alone

You forgot someone in that list.

Yes. Interesting that Seven didn't point it out. I guess he is preoccupied with EGW, for some reason.

You know me too well

[EGW]

I had scum nailed since the start. (Gluelock) Both Glue and Adum are reaching, with Glue lock reaching more obvious. Zen, on the other hand doesn't believe in his pushes, and is misrepresenting my slot. Boom, it's time we discuss Gluelock.

[Seven]

bessie
I've already gone into detail extensively on bessie. To consolidate:

Initial Argument

Fact 1: bessie feels bad about constantly tunneling somi and him being a day 1 elimination
Fact 2: bessie has stated an unwillingness to vote somitomi today due to Fact 1

Argument 1
Premise 1: If bessie is town, Fact 1 would not prevent her from voting somi
Supplementary Premise: If somi is not mafia, mafia-bessie would indeed avoid pushing him Day 1 on the basis of Fact 1.

Conclusion 1: bessie is mafia

Argument 2
Premise 2 (conclusion 1): bessie is mafia
Premise 3: If somi is mafia partnered with bessie, it would conflict with bessie's internal ethical compass to use Fact 1 as a reason not to vote somi.

Conclusion 2: somi must not be mafia

--Notes--
Fact 1 has been established prior to this game.
Fact 2 has been established in this game.

Premise 1 is supported by bessie's personality. She values correctness over emotion. Guilt would not be able to prevent her from voting somi if she felt he was scum. It might cause resistance, but not near 0% chance before she has even read/we've gotten into the game.
Premise 2 is provable/falsifiable.
Premise 3 I am not entirely certain on, but I feel it is right. I simply don't think bessie would use real feelings as a game tactic.

Response to Counter Arguments

I will come back to this post by Seven. I think Seven needs to reread Sorcerer’s 11 Mafia too.

Seven's post here looks damn solid. My brain is doing the hamster wheel thing trying to refute it, but remembering reading her vow about somi to go along with Seven's logic and facts is having me tell the touchie-feelie part to shut up, ding her about a point on the read, and note that gets her close to my "nervous if bessie is only at +2" condition.

Oh moody I’m disappointed in you. You also need to reread Sorcerer’s 11, where I made a conscious effort not to vote for somitomi on D1, but I was unfortunately responsible for his elimination anyway.

I am aware of this. As I stated in the linked post, you would have resistance to voting somi, sure, but not this:

I’m not afraid of you. And there’s almost 0 chance I will vote for somitomi today anyway. I reserve the right to FoS him.

Even it was something as low as 30% I'd find it a much more believable town-bessie state-of-mind.

The odds are that there are multiple non-town players in this setup. If somitomi is scum and survives D1, there would still be a D2.

But as you've stated in previous games, you are tunnel-minded and have difficulty looking at other folks when you've latched onto someone. You made your near 0% statement very early before you even had a bearing on who you might or might not find suspicious. And I believe this is because you aren't coming from a non-informed perspective.

Bessie is a dog of principles. Enough principles that they will cause her significant stress when they are in conflict in a situation.

A) For the integrity of the game she must always play to her win condition.
B) For the sake of fairness she doesn't want anyone repeatedly singled out across multiple games.

She feels guilty about the sorc game because B got broken. Even if she helped A she still broke B. Sevens premise #1 presumes bessie principal A over rides B. But bessie wants to do both. And she can do both as town as long as somi isn't proven scum D1 (which we all know is virtually impossible). Bessie has previously advocated keeping a newbie alive even as likely scum with the idea that they would reveal other scum on D2. (It was that game where zen played under a screen name starting with M. And zen was the newbies scum mate. The newbies name included "whale"). Her behavior here is consistent with her town behavior in that game.

And actually. If she were scum there is a decently likely scenario where her principle A would override B which is if her scummate and Somi were the two possible yeets. The fact that she is not even internally considering that scenario means she has no scum buddy this game and is very likely town.

H not M. Newbie New Year. I will compare.

Here is a list of the games archived from the previous site btw:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

@bessie is there a reason why we removed this link in the smashboards directory thread? I couldn't seem to find it there.

Yeah so I just skimmed bessie's post Day 1 of Newbie New Year and it just proves my point. It was a newbie game and therefore she wanted to avoid voting out a newbie Day 1, yet she was willing to do it for her win con:

I love you too, Peaceful Whale! Please don’t take anything I say as part of this game
personally. Remember that I am my avatar!
Also, this is a newbie game. We will all do the best we can to help you so you can ask us
anything related to general mafia gameplay and we will answer you truthfully, or Suzaku
and wam will smite us from above. But it doesn’t mean you get a free pass. Please take it as
a sign of respect that I am treating you not as a clueless newbie, but as I would treat any
other player.

Hi bessie! Who will you tunnel next?

Sigh. Probably Peaceful Whale.

[EGW]

Faulty argument on Bessie.

[Seven]

Faulty argument on Bessie.

Perhaps. Maybe sub in JC for bessie? I trust Laser's read on bessie though, he's rarely wrong on her.

[somitomi]

Somi being scum aligned in Sorc11 makes your argument have a lot less weight. If you are suggesting that had we misyeeted someone and bessie would have come around to voting him D2, I am willing to say that counterfactual is possible.

Bessie didn't vote me in Sorcerer's though, so if anything, that game is proof that she was willing to give me that sort of leeway even when I was actual suspicious scum.

@Seven: what do you think of this?

It's bedtime for me and tomorrow I'm helping out a friend who's moving so I'll probably won't be able to check the thread during the day. I'll work out tomorrow why two of my biggest townreads are scumreading each other. Until then

Vote Seven

[moody7277]

If my unofficial votals are correct, that is L-2.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Back home and actually rereading stuff but Seven is NOT the play toDay. Period.

They're making really wierd BCs and a headache to read (and I need to dig better into them and Bessie cause I still don't understand Bessie) but their initial case on me reads ridiculously genuine.

Still fine with moody, heuristic, and Laserguy. Wanna think more on EGW before I decide if they belong in the pile. May or may not have more to add later depending on how my rereading goes.

");

[bessie]

I need to leave soon so I'm mostly out until later tonight. I just found out the gig starts at 6:30, not 7, and that for some reason we need to bring drums.

[Seven]

Adum
If Adum is mafia, his scum style reminds me a lot of Hari Seldon. Careful, meticulous, logical. If it's so, he's very good and very dangerous. If we lose this game, it's because we're endgamed by him. My read on him is coming from two things:

1) Some of his reads/insights seem to be coming from a TMI perspective
2) His interactions with George (and to a lesser extent bessie) seem like mafia talking to each other

For Number 1:
-An example is his read on Mak that I keep quoting. It's so insightful, so much that I think it's the kind of thing that is more likely to have been picked up by someone who is coming from an informed perspective. I mentioned how he reminds me of Hari. In that Newbie New Year game, mafia-Hari made a similarly insightful post on town-bessie. While theoretically, he could have made it simply through keen observation, I think the informed perspective of knowing bessie's alignment heightened his ability to pick out the details for why she was town, and I think a similar thing is going on here with Adum.

This is quite speculative though, and I know that it can be frustrating when an astute townie is accused of TMI simply because of their astuteness, so apologies if I'm wrong here Adum, but it's what I feel.

-The post that initially drew me to this suspicion though is this one on Boom. This block in particular feels forced to me:

[...] the random "heury tends to convey their thoughts poorly and often gets misunderstood and mislynched for it", [...] just doesn't suit scum's interests to say at this point in the game, even for taking credit for trying to stop a mislynch on an already doomed townie or defend a scummate.

He states that it doesn't suits scum's interest to say, then lists two reasons for exactly why it would be in scum's interest to say. It's as if he's neglecting the possibilities in order to suit his read.

For Number 2:
Adum has subtly been directing away from EGW throughout the day and there are little interactions earlier in the phase that I can't be arsed to go look for right now that just looked like mafia talking to each other to me. I highly implore you all to look through their interactions yourself and note that Adum is trying to justify not voting for or scumreading George.

Also note that George's recent "scum read" on Adum is the classic contingency read wherein you tie your read on a partner to a towny so that when that person flips town, you can go "well I guess I have to reevaluate my scum read":

Anyway, the reason why I asked about the saltiness, is that I believe that was all scum theatre between Adum and Zen. If Zen flips scum, Adum is scum.

[Seven]

On The Town But Weird

Boom
Boom's town read of EGW here is incredibly worrying:

Yeehaw!

Vote Seven

I like this vote, but I am curious about your thought process leading you to vote Seven.

Town block wagonning. And if Seven is town then his townslip read of moody is likely correct.

I assume his town block wagoning implies that he believes George to be town? As I mentioned before, it's quite obvious that George is scum here to anyone that has played with him a fair number of games. Makhaira has picked up on it. Laser has picked up on it.

I've actually convinced myself in the recent post that Adum has more scum equity than bessie, so if I'm wrong on bessie, Boom has some potential as a third here. Overall though, I think he is more likely to be either an Indy who is buddying mafia or town.

My town read stems from this:

I thought my follow up made it clear what I was looking for. EGW flipped from implying you were town to saying you were scummy and I wanted to get more info on that thought process.

When did he imply that I was scummy prior to you asking this?

I thought my follow up made it clear what I was looking for. EGW flipped from implying you were town to saying you were scummy and I wanted to get more info on that thought process.

I didn't imply scumminess until after you asked me the question. I gave a slight town read on Zen in page 4. So I am not following how that lead you to asking me about a read on Zen when I already gave one before.

I have no idea... I distinctly remember detecting an inconsistency in EGWs read of Seven but I really thought it was before I asked that question. But I can't find it now and there are very few posts in between so most likely chance is that my memory is wrong. I'm out of time for now but I'll reread later and try to figure out what I was thinking.

I actually think it's more likely for town to have misremembered their motivation for asking something like this than it is for mafia. I've actually almost done the same thing a couple of times this game myself in some responses to Adum. It's like the new info you received from responses colors what you perceived to be your initial motivation because you weren't really thinking all that much about your motivation in the first place.

I do think there is some indy equity here too though. The reason why I asked Boom about his motivation for asking EGW that question is because I thought he'd might be trying to provoke a situation where EGW and I butt heads and consume the thread.

[madge]

A flurry of packets were sent in accusation of one AI, nearing the critical mass required to have them deleted, but not quite reaching it...

Votals:


Seven - 5 - Bessie, EGW, Boomfrog, Heury, Somi (L-2)
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody
EGW- 1 - Gluelock

It was another long catchup for me today so let me know if I got votes wrong. I probably did, but greatly appreciated LaserGuy's unofficial votal to make sure I got things right.

Please if you want my attention make sure you put it in bold - Sabrar hasn't been able to help out as much as previous years so it's very important that you do this.

Deadline is in just over 26 hours

Also, given posting volume is still high on weekends, I'm going to make the Days be 4-5 days long with weekends counting for full time, but deadlines will be set possibly 48 hours earlier/later based on my own very busy schedule.

Madge is not the most meticulous thread reader, and on top of that she is very busy and does not have Sabrar full-time to help her out.

What??? How dare you imply that I, someone who as a player famously hates reading anything she doesn't absolutely have to, do not meticulously read every syllable that you guys post?!

But yes, for future reference, if your votes or questions aren't bold and newline they haven't been placed legally and if there is a misyeet as a result, that's on whoever didn't follow the rules. I will try my best to count all votes - I had in fact counted bluelock's non bold vote - but we've seen I mess it up quite frequently.

@mods (or anyone really)

Is there a recommended way to iso someone and view all of a persons posts just within this game?

Instructions for this are also posted on the first page of the thread, by me, thanks to Seven - it's just under the post announcing the start of the day.

[AdumbroDeus]

system.out.println("

Adum
This is quite speculative though, and I know that it can be frustrating when an astute townie is accused of TMI simply because of their astuteness, so apologies if I'm wrong here Adum, but it's what I feel.

Along with the apology I'll inevitably get for you assuming "doubting my initial read based on new information" is trying to find a way to back off a scumbuddy, I'll add it to my list of Zen apologies.

The post that initially drew me to this suspicion though is this one on Boom. This block in particular feels forced to me:

[...] the random "heury tends to convey their thoughts poorly and often gets misunderstood and mislynched for it", [...] just doesn't suit scum's interests to say at this point in the game, even for taking credit for trying to stop a mislynch on an already doomed townie or defend a scummate.

He states that it doesn't suits scum's interest to say, then lists two reasons for exactly why it would be in scum's interest to say. It's as if he's neglecting the possibilities in order to suit his read.

This is a perfect example of why I am verbose, cause you leave off anything and people just fill in the blanks. Of course when I am, they often ignore chunks.

I said "at this point in the game". Heury wasn't doomed, it wasn't close to EoD was a lynch wagon consolidating around them so both scum motivations don't really fit.

I'll have to make a whole file for all zen apologies at the end of this game.

Of course, this still fits perfectly with my townread of you for still underestimating me.

");

[Seven]

Zeniba
Honestly, I don't really start reading Trisscar (Zeniba) until later in the game. Her Day 1s are always slow and I completely skimmed her Moody output post. The reason why I don't think she's likely to be Indy is because I don't think Fred would replace out if he got such an enticing role. I disagree with Laser though and do think Fred would replace out if he rolled mafia again.

[A note to Bluelock and JC: Different communities have different cultures regarding the discussion of replacements. What I am saying here would be forbidden on Mafia Universe so keep that in mind. Such is not really a thing here. What I've found is that the bigger aggregates (mafia universe, mafiascum) are the sites that tend to be strict regarding what they consider to be OOG information.]

Oh and in case I'm not around, @all, I've played with Trisscar a good number of times now and she is easily one of the strongest scum players here.

heury
Like I said, he's a strong town PR. Possibly GladOS based on his reaction to my cake is a lie line?

He's had several observations where I can see the town gears turning, like his post pointing out EGW's soulless questions. This post here is especially townie:

Why?

I liked the idea have having tied wagons 2/2/2/etc so I voted moody to align with the pattern. Once the pattern disappeared I removed my vote. I actually have a town lean on moody.

Gluelock = Town

Ran has also spewed Heury as town through TMI:

For the record. Heury has been missyeeted frequently in the past for misunderstandings. He's... a sub-par explainer of his thoughts in my experience.

At the moment, Heury's tone in his posts seem to mirror Sorcerer Mafia where he was town. I remember when he was scum in Millerizer Mafia, he was opportunistic.

The weird thing about him is his insistence on bessie being town. It makes no sense. I also considered that Somi's "you know me too well", "I'm just trying to bond" lines might have been implying they are Lovers, but I don't think it's so.

[Seven]

I'll have to make a whole file for all zen apologies at the end of this game.

sorry T____T

[Seven]

The only town read I'll go into is moody. Here's the town slip:

You calling it misinformation implies you think Seven is scum, in which case you either think I'm being led down the primrose path or I'm scum and just got my marching orders.

It's what Adum was trying to use as a reason for George being town, the lack of realization that there's no day chat.

Anyway, Moody has had lots of little towny micromoments, and Boom not seeing this is another area of concern. I'm burnt out at this point though so hopefully Laser can take up the mantle if it gets to a point where Moody is going to be elimmed.

I'm off to do some work now and will be in lab all day tomorrow so probably wont be able to read too deeply from this point.

Vote: EGW

no viggy today

[Seven]

just had a toblerone for the first time. overrated. maybe you're supposed to take the foil off first?

[AdumbroDeus]

system.out.println("

The only town read I'll go into is moody. Here's the town slip:

You calling it misinformation implies you think Seven is scum, in which case you either think I'm being led down the primrose path or I'm scum and just got my marching orders.

It's what Adum was trying to use as a reason for George being town, the lack of realization that there's no day chat.

Anyway, Moody has had lots of little towny micromoments, and Boom not seeing this is another area of concern. I'm burnt out at this point though so hopefully Laser can take up the mantle if it gets to a point where Moody is going to be elimmed.

I'm off to do some work now and will be in lab all day tomorrow so probably wont be able to read too deeply from this point.

Vote: EGW

no viggy today

This is a good point, EGW is incredibly not detail oriented, but you're right that it reads pretty organic about just making an assumption there's daytalk.

");