HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[boomfrog]

Moody town slipped btw. Ill see if others find it.

Interesting. I await the reveal to see if it's convincing.

[bessie]

Morning bark!

Sorry Adum I did miss your questions on Page 14. The content level is light for Smashboards or Mafia Universe, but heavy for xkcd.

I think it's played out at this point. Could you give your thoughts on the result? Including moody expansion.

I think that the Mak/BoomFrog interaction will prove to be helpful in determining mafia, perhaps not immediately, but in late game in ways I am not yet able to predict. Not so much for BoomFrog or Mak, but for other players reactions, like LaserGuy and moody.

In regards to moody’s post on Page 3:

Mak getting confused by BF using non-standard language looks honest to me, although them skimming the intro flavor text is a little troubling.

BF is acting like what I remember of old, which right now is comforting, we'll see if that holds up D2 and on. The reason for switching to a serious vote is a pretty good one.

Also I was unknowingly paralleling LaserGuy's reasoning, which terrifies me.

I was ok with the Mak and BoomFrog observations, I was pinged by the LaserGuy observation. And what pinged me was not because I was suspicious of LaserGuy which I already covered, but if moody was reading carefully, he too should have realized what was wrong with LaserGuy’s post. So it was a ping for what I though may have been just looking for a reason to post.

Acknowledging George’s vote. Boo.

Didn't touch on this earlier, but what's your rationale for making this acknowledgement?

I acknowledged I saw it, and have nothing to say about it at this time, meaning either I don’t have a problem with the reasoning, or I don’t have time to dig in to it. The voter and the other players shouldn’t need to ask me if I saw the vote.

Also, could you give me your thoughts on me vs. Seven, me vs. Laser, and me vs. BF?

I don’t really do this type of read, meaning its not my style or in my skill set. I will think about it.

The prohibition here does seem stronger than last game and last game you were correct, so I'm asking why. Alternatively, explaining what I misunderstood about your thought process is always an option.

There is no prohibition, it just isn’t likely. I think that describing my reluctance to vote for somitomi with this term is contributing to the misinterpretation of my post. Almost zero is not a prohibition, which is why I said almost zero and not zero. There was no Night 0, so I made the assumption that there were no pre-game night actions that would have outed somitomi as non-town on D1.

Question for you. On this site, the usual elimination is whoever has the most votes at deadline. If somitomi is the clear elimination choice, why would my vote even be necessary?

When you receive your role PM, please confirm in thread. Do not start playing until Day 1 officially starts.

Also for the record, this is the reason why I confirmed the way I did and perhaps it is why others did too? The emphasis to not start playing seemed to imply the mods didn't want us to post something that might be alignment indicative, and simply confirm.

What is this total and complete nonsense??? I can’t believe a player with Seven’s abilities would post this and expect me to believe it. I like how you’re trying to cover for not only yourself, but are giving your mafia partner(s) an opportunity to join in with this falsity. Madge’s post in no way whatsoever prohibits a player from making a creative confirmation post, like saying “program loaded” and it’s not meant to do so. It’s meant to stop people from posting game content, like their RVS vote. You know better.

Interesting, i didn’t mean for it to be a joke, I meant for it to be a non-committal threat.

Then it was theater and not for my eyes because you know I will not feel threatened.

but her being blatant with "I will vote somi no more" is a bit much.

Point to where I said this.

[bessie]

@Gluelock, I would still like an answer to this:

Unvote: moody7277

Why?

[moody7277]

Point to where I said this.

I’m not afraid of you. And there’s almost 0 chance I will vote for somitomi today anyway. I reserve the right to FoS him.

Now, you only meant this for D1, and the quote from Seven that provoked it looks like the height of hyperbole, but ruling out anyone to vote for that early seems ridiculous. You have no conception where the day might lead at that point.

[Seven]

When you receive your role PM, please confirm in thread. Do not start playing until Day 1 officially starts.

Also for the record, this is the reason why I confirmed the way I did and perhaps it is why others did too? The emphasis to not start playing seemed to imply the mods didn't want us to post something that might be alignment indicative, and simply confirm.

What is this total and complete nonsense??? I can’t believe a player with Seven’s abilities would post this and expect me to believe it. I like how you’re trying to cover for not only yourself, but are giving your mafia partner(s) an opportunity to join in with this falsity. Madge’s post in no way whatsoever prohibits a player from making a creative confirmation post, like saying “program loaded” and it’s not meant to do so. It’s meant to stop people from posting game content, like their RVS vote. You know better.

Fair enough, but that's simply how I took it. It was likely a projection of how I myself would go about things as host now that I think about it. Regardless, I do not find it believable that you would think people confirmed the way they did because of you when the majority of players were not familiar with your confirmation-post analysis background (I myself cannot even recall ever seeing it in action, though I do know you have previously stated that you do this).

[EGW]

Now, you only meant this for D1, and the quote from Seven that provoked it looks like the height of hyperbole, but ruling out anyone to vote for that early seems ridiculous. You have no conception where the day might lead at that point.

It doesn't seem ridiculous at all to me. She's stated before that she finds Somi to be valuable asset to town if town, so since he gets misyeeted often, she wouldn't consider voting him D1 because by the next phase she would have enough to sort him by. You saw evidence of this in practice in Sorcerer Mafia. So this would all make it null regardless.

[Seven]

Interesting, i didn’t mean for it to be a joke, I meant for it to be a non-committal threat.

Then it was theater and not for my eyes because you know I will not feel threatened.

You are correct. It was stated with the goal of making any potential scum more hesitant to push me this game lest I shoot them. While I did not expect anyone to believe it, I wanted it in the back of their mind as a risk to avoid.

Though I do actually have a day vig, but I cannot use it if I vote. I'm trying to decide which one I want to use today, vig or vote. Vig or vote...hmmm. This is a lie of course. Just like the cake.

[Seven]

@EGW: What's your read on Seven?

Why did you ask this at that point in time?

I thought my follow up made it clear what I was looking for. EGW flipped from implying you were town to saying you were scummy and I wanted to get more info on that thought process.

When did he imply that I was scummy prior to you asking this?

[moody7277]

Now, you only meant this for D1, and the quote from Seven that provoked it looks like the height of hyperbole, but ruling out anyone to vote for that early seems ridiculous. You have no conception where the day might lead at that point.

It doesn't seem ridiculous at all to me. She's stated before that she finds Somi to be valuable asset to town if town, so since he gets misyeeted often, she wouldn't consider voting him D1 because by the next phase she would have enough to sort him by. You saw evidence of this in practice in Sorcerer Mafia. So this would all make it null regardless.

Somi being scum aligned in Sorc11 makes your argument have a lot less weight. If you are suggesting that had we misyeeted someone and bessie would have come around to voting him D2, I am willing to say that counterfactual is possible.

[boomfrog]

I didn't think about it too much but I think one factor in me posting a super conforming confirmation was that I thought about bessie's reaction then realized I was over thinking and that might come off as weird so I just decided to conform and be done with it.

I also was affected by the fact that everyone else had stuck to a simple confirmation. (Yes, even the great boomfrog is affected by peer pressure to a degree)

I find it very plausible that there's a handful of players that would choose as mafia to conform to avoid bessie's gaze. LG, Moody, somi, maybe heury, probably me. Looking back LG and Somi confirmed relatively late, so they were probably more influenced by generic pressure which clouds the possibility of being influenced by being scum and self conscious.

Actuality...

(I myself cannot even recall ever seeing it in action, though I do know you have previously stated that you do this).

Obviously you are aware bessie likes to do this and is famous for it. Did you not do it at the start of the game in imitation of her?

[Seven]

I didn't think about it too much but I think one factor in me posting a super conforming confirmation was that I thought about bessie's reaction then realized I was over thinking and that might come off as weird so I just decided to conform and be done with it.

I also was affected by the fact that everyone else had stuck to a simple confirmation. (Yes, even the great boomfrog is affected by peer pressure to a degree)

I find it very plausible that there's a handful of players that would choose as mafia to conform to avoid bessie's gaze. LG, Moody, somi, maybe heury, probably me. Looking back LG and Somi confirmed relatively late, so they were probably more influenced by generic pressure which clouds the possibility of being influenced by being scum and self conscious.

Actuality...

(I myself cannot even recall ever seeing it in action, though I do know you have previously stated that you do this).

Obviously you are aware bessie likes to do this and is famous for it. Did you not do it at the start of the game in imitation of her?

No, I've analyzed confirmation posts pre-knowing bessie. It's what gave me a legitimate scum read on Vicarin in Brooklyn 99 mafia.

[EGW]

Somi being scum aligned in Sorc11 makes your argument have a lot less weight. If you are suggesting that had we misyeeted someone and bessie would have come around to voting him D2, I am willing to say that counterfactual is possible.

I don't think it changes my argument at all. Since she didn't vote him even with a bad vibe that she noticed, it shows she is still willing to wait a day to ensure that she is right on him. I don't think that would mean she'd change and the only factor that could make my argument weaker is her saying later in the game or in post game that she would consider voting Somi D1 more often, then I would admit my argument is weaker and leave it at that.

[bessie]

Point to where I said this.

I’m not afraid of you. And there’s almost 0 chance I will vote for somitomi today anyway. I reserve the right to FoS him.

Now, you only meant this for D1, and the quote from Seven that provoked it looks like the height of hyperbole, but ruling out anyone to vote for that early seems ridiculous. You have no conception where the day might lead at that point.

It is not hyperbole, it is a statement of my intent for my D1 play. I never ruled out analyzing, suspecting, or even voting for somitomi. But as I stated in the post to which you replied, if somitomi is so scummy he leads the votes, than my vote wouldn’t be needed anyway. Why do you think I would need to join a strong wagon?

Fair enough, but that's simply how I took it. It was likely a projection of how I myself would go about things as host now that I think about it. Regardless, I do not find it believable that you would think people confirmed the way they did because of you when the majority of players were not familiar with your confirmation-post analysis background (I myself cannot even recall ever seeing it in action, though I do know you have previously stated that you do this).

Your first sentence reads as completely fake.

Your second sentence is completely fake. I am sure I could find something if my xkcd archive was easily searchable. Throughout this entire game I have stated what is suspicious in the confirmation posts. Reference this reply to EGW:

Thank you, someone finally gets it. I’ve been trying to explain this all game. The confirmation posts are very suspicious because they’re all acceptable. Most of the players jumped right into the flavor when the game started, but there was not one “beep” or “circuits on” or anything like that in the confirmation posts. Someone that knows me well is scum and was trying not to draw my attention.

So, are you pretending not to understand my analysis? Or are you not reading my content closely because you are not truly trying to sort?

You are correct. It was stated with the goal of making any potential scum more hesitant to push me this game lest I shoot them. While I did not expect anyone to believe it, I wanted it in the back of their mind as a risk to avoid.

I find this statement very suspicious. If you are town, what are you afraid of? Town should not be afraid of posting content because they should have nothing to hide. Thinking about it, I find this statement suspicious enough, in conjunction with your other content, to vote.


Vote: Seven


Ninja's while I was typing this out.

[EGW]

Unvote; Vote: Seven

[Gluelock]

Fact 1: bessie feels bad about constantly tunneling somi and him being a day 1 elimination
Fact 2: bessie has stated an unwillingness to vote somitomi today due to Fact 1

Argument 1
Premise 1: If bessie is town, Fact 1 would not prevent her from voting somi
Supplementary Premise: If somi is not mafia, mafia-bessie would indeed avoid pushing him Day 1 on the basis of Fact 1.

Conclusion 1: bessie is mafia

Argument 2
Premise 2 (conclusion 1): bessie is mafia
Premise 3: If somi is mafia partnered with bessie, it would conflict with bessie's internal ethical compass to use Fact 1 as a reason not to vote somi.

Conclusion 2: somi must not be mafia

--Notes--
Fact 1 has been established prior to this game.
Fact 2 has been established in this game.

Premise 1 is supported by bessie's personality. She values correctness over emotion. Guilt would not be able to prevent her from voting somi if she felt he was scum. It might cause resistance, but not near 0% chance before she has even read/we've gotten into the game.
Premise 2 is provable/falsifiable.
Premise 3 I am not entirely certain on, but I feel it is right. I simply don't think bessie would use real feelings as a game tactic.

Can I just say how much I love this format?

[EGW]

No, I've analyzed confirmation posts pre-knowing bessie. It's what gave me a legitimate scum read on Vicarin in Brooklyn 99 mafia.

Does this quote not imply you knew of Bessie's confirmation post analysis style?

I think you mean my schtick. Although, you are me.

[Seven]

Fact 1: bessie feels bad about constantly tunneling somi and him being a day 1 elimination
Fact 2: bessie has stated an unwillingness to vote somitomi today due to Fact 1

Argument 1
Premise 1: If bessie is town, Fact 1 would not prevent her from voting somi
Supplementary Premise: If somi is not mafia, mafia-bessie would indeed avoid pushing him Day 1 on the basis of Fact 1.

Conclusion 1: bessie is mafia

Argument 2
Premise 2 (conclusion 1): bessie is mafia
Premise 3: If somi is mafia partnered with bessie, it would conflict with bessie's internal ethical compass to use Fact 1 as a reason not to vote somi.

Conclusion 2: somi must not be mafia

--Notes--
Fact 1 has been established prior to this game.
Fact 2 has been established in this game.

Premise 1 is supported by bessie's personality. She values correctness over emotion. Guilt would not be able to prevent her from voting somi if she felt he was scum. It might cause resistance, but not near 0% chance before she has even read/we've gotten into the game.
Premise 2 is provable/falsifiable.
Premise 3 I am not entirely certain on, but I feel it is right. I simply don't think bessie would use real feelings as a game tactic.

less than three

Can I just say how much I love this format?

[Seven]

EBWOP:

Fact 1: bessie feels bad about constantly tunneling somi and him being a day 1 elimination
Fact 2: bessie has stated an unwillingness to vote somitomi today due to Fact 1

Argument 1
Premise 1: If bessie is town, Fact 1 would not prevent her from voting somi
Supplementary Premise: If somi is not mafia, mafia-bessie would indeed avoid pushing him Day 1 on the basis of Fact 1.

Conclusion 1: bessie is mafia

Argument 2
Premise 2 (conclusion 1): bessie is mafia
Premise 3: If somi is mafia partnered with bessie, it would conflict with bessie's internal ethical compass to use Fact 1 as a reason not to vote somi.

Conclusion 2: somi must not be mafia

--Notes--
Fact 1 has been established prior to this game.
Fact 2 has been established in this game.

Premise 1 is supported by bessie's personality. She values correctness over emotion. Guilt would not be able to prevent her from voting somi if she felt he was scum. It might cause resistance, but not near 0% chance before she has even read/we've gotten into the game.
Premise 2 is provable/falsifiable.
Premise 3 I am not entirely certain on, but I feel it is right. I simply don't think bessie would use real feelings as a game tactic.

Can I just say how much I love this format?

less than three

[Seven]

No, I've analyzed confirmation posts pre-knowing bessie. It's what gave me a legitimate scum read on Vicarin in Brooklyn 99 mafia.

Does this quote not imply you knew of Bessie's confirmation post analysis style?

I think you mean my schtick. Although, you are me.

Yes.

[boomfrog]

Fact 1: bessie feels bad about constantly tunneling somi and him being a day 1 elimination
Fact 2: bessie has stated an unwillingness to vote somitomi today due to Fact 1

Argument 1
Premise 1: If bessie is town, Fact 1 would not prevent her from voting somi
Supplementary Premise: If somi is not mafia, mafia-bessie would indeed avoid pushing him Day 1 on the basis of Fact 1.

Conclusion 1: bessie is mafia

--Notes--
Fact 1 has been established prior to this game.
Fact 2 has been established in this game.

Premise 1 is supported by bessie's personality. She values correctness over emotion. Guilt would not be able to prevent her from voting somi if she felt he was scum. It might cause resistance, but not near 0% chance before she has even read/we've gotten into the game.
Premise 2 is provable/falsifiable.

Bessie is a dog of principles. Enough principles that they will cause her significant stress when they are in conflict in a situation.

A) For the integrity of the game she must always play to her win condition.
B) For the sake of fairness she doesn't want anyone repeatedly singled out across multiple games.

She feels guilty about the sorc game because B got broken. Even if she helped A she still broke B. Sevens premise #1 presumes bessie principal A over rides B. But bessie wants to do both. And she can do both as town as long as somi isn't proven scum D1 (which we all know is virtually impossible). Bessie has previously advocated keeping a newbie alive even as likely scum with the idea that they would reveal other scum on D2. (It was that game where zen played under a screen name starting with M. And zen was the newbies scum mate. The newbies name included "whale"). Her behavior here is consistent with her town behavior in that game.

And actually. If she were scum there is a decently likely scenario where her principle A would override B which is if her scummate and Somi were the two possible yeets. The fact that she is not even internally considering that scenario means she has no scum buddy this game and is very likely town.

[EGW]

Alright. Then I am assuming you meant you made similar analysis posts before knowing Bessie, and I will say I could vouch for that. However, that's the problem. I've seen you make such entries, and then your play afterwards would remain consistently obvious townie. Here, it was not consistent with your entry.

[moody7277]

It is not hyperbole, it is a statement of my intent for my D1 play. I never ruled out analyzing, suspecting, or even voting for somitomi. But as I stated in the post to which you replied, if somitomi is so scummy he leads the votes, than my vote wouldn’t be needed anyway. Why do you think I would need to join a strong wagon?[/bessie]

I meant that Seven's post that provoked that repsonse was hyperbole (vigging you for simply FoSing somi?). As for not joining a wagon you feel is sufficient to elim someone you have a scum read on, that's fine here where a plurality is sufficient for elim.

[EGW]

I thought my follow up made it clear what I was looking for. EGW flipped from implying you were town to saying you were scummy and I wanted to get more info on that thought process.

I didn't imply scumminess until after you asked me the question. I gave a slight town read on Zen in page 4. So I am not following how that lead you to asking me about a read on Zen when I already gave one before.

[EGW]

Can I just say how much I love this format?

Bessie has a question addressed to you that I would like to see answered.

[boomfrog]

Yeehaw!

Vote Seven