Sorcerer's 11 Mafia - xkcd edition - Game Over

[AdumbroDeus]

Heury doop EGW and me are all unfathomably based

EGW died for his basedness and for that we must honor him

Everyone else is super cringe, except bessie whose cringeness is TBD

Adum slightly less cringe for immediately correcting course on me

Bessie you need to claim result ASAP, NO ONE SHOULD COUNTERCLAIM UNTIL BESSIE HAS POSTED RESULT

but im gonna be a little cringe as a treat and affirmatively say I am NOT the seer

gg wp at the EOD pivot for those who were there, off to a great start this game

Sorry for being cringe, I was and frankly still am, in a lot of pain. I'm doing my best to make up for it today.

[bessie]

somitomi has been eliminated. He was the Sorcerer.

bessie barking at somitomi.PNG (291.19 KiB) Viewed 1166 times

EGW was killed during the Night. He was Vanilla Town.

bessie howling for EGW.PNG (253.88 KiB) Viewed 1166 times

Some leftover replies from D1.

I also think its weird that bessie is saying im scummy for telling a slot to claim but she is voting for that very slot, feels a bit inconsistent

Is not. I read you both as scummy independently of each other.

Wait, if you think fred is sorc dont you have this analysis backwards? Like youre saying im informed on fred and was looking for an excuse to swap, but sorc is informed as to all scum, wolf is only informed as to the other wolf, so isnt it fred youd be looking for the TMI slip from?

No I was saying Fred’s informed, and after reading my brilliant analysis as to why Fred is scum, you realized that he was the sorcerer and were looking for an excuse to move your vote.

There is literally 0 point in not telling us all 3 picks

Why? I see literally 0 point in telling you all 3 picks.



New content.

Btw, I had a medical emergency and had to not go on my camping trip which I'd been looking forward to most of the year, plus side I won't be V/LA til Monday after all.

Sorry your trip was canceled; I hope you are ok!

Speaking of which Bessie what's your result?

I would rather not claim right away, and I will give you my reasoning as to why. If I have a wolf result, then D2 is over and we lose our last chance of getting some wolf-wolf interactions to analyze on D3. When I claim I will also give my reasoning as to why I selected my target.

I want time for people to discuss and Bessie needs to give everyone they targeted and all their results ASAP

There is 0 reason for me to reveal my N0 targets.

Bessie you need to claim result ASAP, NO ONE SHOULD COUNTERCLAIM UNTIL BESSIE HAS POSTED RESULT

How about nooooooooooooooooooo?????

At this point they pretty much have to claim every person they tried to target and every result they got or they're getting lynched.

That serves neither town nor scum, it's in their interests to play along.

I find your mindset suspicious.

[AdumbroDeus]

Ok, I'm playing like crap and missed that the three picks had been discussed at the tail end of D1.

I read Bessie's initial claim as being ignorant of the three picks so was trying get them to either say what they were or confirm they only picked one person n0, not realizing it was useless.

My apologies, I'll reiterate medical Johns.

[bessie]

I picked three people I don't know well.

Doop is an interesting choice.

@ Heury, can you explain this remark? Like, who do you think I should have chosen?? EGW?????? There's no way I would waste a cop on George.

[AdumbroDeus]

I picked three people I don't know well.

Doop is an interesting choice.

@ Heury, can you explain this remark? Like, who do you think I should have chosen?? EGW?????? There's no way I would waste a cop on George.

Your read of Fredd and Mak was based on Fredd being Sorc, do you still believe they're scum given new flips?

[AdumbroDeus]

Ebwop:

And if so why?

[heuristically_alone]

The fact that Bessie's still alive and the the martyr didn't die tells us scum didn't go for Bessie, we have 3 more days til lylo (2 to Mylo if the hunter dies with the wrong target) and with that the longer we wait the more reads we can get confirmed if we do decide to lynch them or scum kills them.

I think the smart play for Mafia if bessie is town was not to target her. I think we need to all claim seer or not seer. If bessie is the seer she should be protected every night and we get a valid result every night.

[heuristically_alone]

Speaking of which Bessie what's your result?
I would rather not claim right away, and I will give you my reasoning as to why. If I have a wolf result, then D2 is over and we lose our last chance of getting some wolf-wolf interactions to analyze on D3. When I claim I will also give my reasoning as to why I selected my target.

I agree that Bessie should not share results until Mayrtr is dead or we are at a Mylo situation.

[Makhaira]

Wait, if you think fred is sorc dont you have this analysis backwards? Like youre saying im informed on fred and was looking for an excuse to swap, but sorc is informed as to all scum, wolf is only informed as to the other wolf, so isnt it fred youd be looking for the TMI slip from?

No I was saying Fred’s informed, and after reading my brilliant analysis as to why Fred is scum, you realized that he was the sorcerer and were looking for an excuse to move your vote.

and how does me being on the sorc wagon minutes before EOD impact your theory that I thought fred was sorc

There is literally 0 point in not telling us all 3 picks

Why? I see literally 0 point in telling you all 3 picks.

there is no way that the scum can use knowledge of who you picked N0 against us. Knowing who your first three picks were increases in informational value as the game goes on and we get more flips because if any of your other picks flip we can narrow down the possible town/scum combinations of you picks given your result and the random selection nature of the N0 mechanic

For you to justify witholding that information, the burden is explicitly on you to explain how that information could give scum a strategic or informational advantage

I think the smart play for Mafia if bessie is town was not to target her. I think we need to all claim seer or not seer. If bessie is the seer she should be protected every night and we get a valid result every night.

this is only true if they planned to CC her immediately, its a gambit play decision to not target her. Martyr is not a standard doc where scum loses a full NK tempo for being predictable. Martyr still dies on a successful protect so the scum dont actually lose their NK, its just a delay power that allows a PR to survive one more night before being killed. Frankly I think not trying to kill bessie last night AND not attempting to CC and get her mislynched is a massive misplay, the scum will simply run out of time and we will have too many clears for them to win an endgame if she is legit seer and not elimated soon

[Makhaira]

Has PJ posted yet?
Haven't seen Maven in a while either...

Somo seemed to simultaneously be aware and not aware that the setup is open (referencing no n0 kills, then moody having insider info) which strikes me as weird.

I find this comment kind of odd after so much discussion took place about it.
How about now? Have your reads remained the same or changed at all? I'd like to see you post what you have in mind so far.

I didn't ping you, but I did talk about that here.

I do not recall you using a cynical view before.

I can't provide examples either, but moody does do that fairly regularly

Is there anyone in this game you find suspicious or do you only have town reads?

I just called you and moody suspicious, sorry if that wasn't clear. Heury's dropped off my radar a bit, but his posts feel a bit light to me, like he's just coasting along. Not entirely sure what to make of that yet, I have a hard time reading Heury.

Speaking of which

I like and appreciate a vote against a scummy post. And in the future may reveal info about either player.

Ok, this is still pretty general, but I don't feel like hammering on it will achieve much, what do you think of the Doop-EGW interaction?
[/quote]

Somi interacts with more slots in this post than any other post they made

I very seriously believe atleast one of the remaining scum is an inactive slot, would probably bet an irresponsible amount of money that there is atleast one wolf between J and Maven.

Assuming bessie is not CCd, elim pool should prob be J, Maven, Moody. Maybe heury too, some of somis interactions with the slot are weird to me but Im still re reading trying to parse it

[Makhaira]

Everything above that [/quote] was supposed to be a direct full post quote of a somi post but I still somehow botched it fml why do I even bother phoneposting

[Makhaira]

Post I was trying to quote was in the middle of page 5 and starts "has PJ posted yet?"

[Makhaira]

Ill put my money where my mouth is

Vote: Prince J

[Freddino18]

15,000 word

You can't just post this without sauce. I expect your essay by tuesday.

[Freddino18]

I have a question for Seven. If the Hunter is NK'ed and chooses to kill the Martyr's target, does the target die or does the Martyr die?

[Dooplissity]

I have a question for Seven. If the Hunter is NK'ed and chooses to kill the Martyr's target, does the target die or does the Martyr die?

I can answer this. The Martyr dies (and also town is very sad)

It should basically never happen though.

[Dooplissity]

I would rather not claim right away, and I will give you my reasoning as to why. If I have a wolf result, then D2 is over and we lose our last chance of getting some wolf-wolf interactions to analyze on D3. When I claim I will also give my reasoning as to why I selected my target.

I don't agree with this, since the wolves basically know they have to distance. It's exceedingly likely we'll kill one of them at some point and they don't want that to implicate the other wolf hard enough that we just win. We don't have to speedlynch them either - we can go back over D1 knowing two evils and figure it out while the Martyr is still alive and can contribute. Hell even a clear really helps us analyze and narrow it down.

Also, if (and only if) Bessie is an unCCed seer - at the end of the phase before we lynch the Martyr must claim so Bessie doesn't investigate them. If anyone hammers before then, we need to kill them tomorrow.

[Dooplissity]

I still need to go read over Somi's slot and analyze it but I'm obvtown/potentially clear and also super busy with family from out of state this weekend so I'd love to see others do it first

[Prince J]

Hello! Okay I’m finally actually here and I’ll be posting while at work today.

Sincerest apologies! ^_^”” I’m just dumb however I finally got to log into the site on my phone so I can do more.

Hope everyone’s been doing good!

[Prince J]

heury - says he thought he was going to die N0, sus -2

Nobody even had a kill on N0, so I'd think that was a joke

There are only 11 living players out of hundreds that could be playing right now. I'd say that's pretty good odds.

Wait, was that not a joke? Well now I'm curious about that too.

Didn't mention it because there isn't a jailer.

Seems like moody just slipped about having insider information

Based on a gut ping, I don’t really think Somi-Moody was part of the evil faction since Somi knew who the other mafia were and altho they didn’t know him, it feels weird to shade Moody in this way besides just to make them look worse.

Kind of disconnecting these two atm so that’s a good start~

[heuristically_alone]

Heury's dropped off my radar a bit, but his posts feel a bit light to me, like he's just coasting along. Not entirely sure what to make of that yet, I have a hard time reading Heury.

Oh I've definitely been coasting along, but next week I'll be in California so scum be in fear for some scary heury analysis.


[/quote] this is only true if they planned to CC her immediately, its a gambit play decision to not target her. Martyr is not a standard doc where scum loses a full NK tempo for being predictable. Martyr still dies on a successful protect so the scum dont actually lose their NK, its just a delay power that allows a PR to survive one more night before being killed. Frankly I think not trying to kill bessie last night AND not attempting to CC and get her mislynched is a massive misplay, the scum will simply run out of time and we will have too many clears for them to win an endgame if she is legit seer and not elimated soon
[/quote]
The entire point of the existence of the Martyr is to sacrifice themselves to the Seer. So now each day the Seer is alive is an additional guaranteed result with the sorcerer gone. So when Martyr dies, seer claims results, and we can analyze relationships of any wolf results and get an easy win.

[Prince J]

Currently liking Mai and Doop as town based on the way they were investigating things yesterDay and I haven’t gotten any bad vibes this far.

Moody/Doop/Mai

3 names with me is 4 which is comfy for right now so gonna try and solidify who I wanna go for toDay.

[bessie]

Woof!

Your read of Fredd and Mak was based on Fredd being Sorc, do you still believe they're scum given new flips?

I no longer believe Fred is the sorcerer.

ok i was wrong.PNG (77.29 KiB) Viewed 1090 times

I like Makhaira more today because of somitomi’s vote. Fred and I had more votes then Makhaira. I had expressed suspicion of Mak so there was a decent chance I could have switched to Mak out of self-preservation.*

*Except that I don’t believe in self-preservation votes and somitomi knows this.

and how does me being on the sorc wagon minutes before EOD impact your theory that I thought fred was sorc

Like I said, I expected you to find an excuse to move your vote.

there is no way that the scum can use knowledge of who you picked N0 against us. Knowing who your first three picks were increases in informational value as the game goes on and we get more flips because if any of your other picks flip we can narrow down the possible town/scum combinations of you picks given your result and the random selection nature of the N0 mechanic

For you to justify witholding that information, the burden is explicitly on you to explain how that information could give scum a strategic or informational advantage

I don’t agree, but I’m not really good at that type of logic/math, like if the other two picks have an increased or decreased probability of being wolves. Maybe Sabrar will leave the analysis in the Gojoe thread for me to read after the game.

this is only true if they planned to CC her immediately, its a gambit play decision to not target her. Martyr is not a standard doc where scum loses a full NK tempo for being predictable. Martyr still dies on a successful protect so the scum dont actually lose their NK, its just a delay power that allows a PR to survive one more night before being killed. Frankly I think not trying to kill bessie last night AND not attempting to CC and get her mislynched is a massive misplay, the scum will simply run out of time and we will have too many clears for them to win an endgame if she is legit seer and not elimated soon

I agree with this I was kinda surprised they didn’t go after me or even Dooplissity. The choice of EGW makes me think they were trying to avoid a doctor and didn’t read the roles carefully. Or they wanted to take a shot at taking out the hunter early. Or EGW was on to them, which he wasn’t he was focused on me.

You can't just post this without sauce. I expect your essay by tuesday.

Fred, what are your current reads? Please post a town-scum list ASAP. Analysis would be nice but we really need your list.

I don't agree with this, since the wolves basically know they have to distance. It's exceedingly likely we'll kill one of them at some point and they don't want that to implicate the other wolf hard enough that we just win. We don't have to speedlynch them either - we can go back over D1 knowing two evils and figure it out while the Martyr is still alive and can contribute. Hell even a clear really helps us analyze and narrow it down.

Also, if (and only if) Bessie is an unCCed seer - at the end of the phase before we lynch the Martyr must claim so Bessie doesn't investigate them. If anyone hammers before then, we need to kill them tomorrow.

I was hoping to wait until about halfway through D2 to claim so that everyone could make an actual content post. Right now I’m suspicious of anyone that hasn’t given some solid opinions.

Oh I've definitely been coasting along, but next week I'll be in California so scum be in fear for some scary heury analysis.

Are you coming to Southern California? We’re supposed to be having a hurricane.

@Heury please answer my question in this post.

[Dooplissity]

Your N0 being on me marginally increases the chances the other two are scum. If all 3 are town it could hit anyone, but if one is scum it can't hit them and if both are scum it has to hit me.

I don't think it's particularly valuable information due to how marginal it is. In a perfectly logical world you have no reason *not* to share it, but I've been thinking about it and I'd actually prefer you keep it to yourself. Whatever minor benefit we get out of it isn't worth people probably overindexing on it. We have a flipped Sorc, a known-good EGW, and whatever other seer info we have. That's going to give us higher probabilities of correct lynches than marginal math.

[Freddino18]

Strong town
Adum
Mak
Moody
Questionable, strong town
Bess
Questionable, mild town
Doop
Heury
Questionable, strong scum
Maven
Prince

Putting Bessie where she is because there are two possible town slots she could be in and one possible scum slot (true claim, false claim Hunter, false claim Wolf)

Both of my strong scum reads are mostly due to a lack of content, Heury is on the border because the first half of D1 was meaningless chaff, but he came back with a lot of compelling content after that.

I don't like voting for low post count, but I think it is warranted in this situation.

Vote: Prince J