Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Game Over

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Seven
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Seven »

MathBlade wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:56 pmAbout me being “easy” that’s been the mindset. The only case was “I wasn’t here”. I was working. Initial suggestions are very difficult to overcome so poisoning the well is bad. My defense should be clear and I shouldn’t need one.

Take me and the worst for example: one of four alignments
SvS >> While this is possible to an outsider’s perspective, me claiming to have blocked the worst then one of the worst and myself not dying is suspicious. This is not a good strategic play if I or the worst are scum as we open ourselves to lots of ways things go wrong.

SvT >> Again this is possible to an outsider’s perspective but then why do I as scum true claim when I could just sheep Seven and take the elim on Wisp. The worst confirmed he was blocked and him being town means he was blocked so that means true claim.

TvS >> Possible that the worst is a strongman here and killed Wisp or just scum who got blocked but considering how Seven recanted their “implied” claim (benefit of the doubt) means that they know at least one of us is truthtelling and so continuing on is dumb, and that’s looking at Seven in the best light possible.

TvT >> This is clearly the most likely answer as the others require a lot of weird stretching and flexing to make work. I may be an idiot but I am more than likely a town idiot which makes me hella sus of Morgan because he knows better.

Now take that and add Seven onto the mix:

Seven claimed the worst visited Wisp. I blocked the worst. These are in direct conflict barring a strongman action. Given the worst said their action failed, there’s three options (pre Seven recant)

>> Seven is truthtelling about worst visiting Wisp, which means worst is lying about being blocked. (This necessitates me town, see SvS argument earlier)

>> Seven is lying about the worst visiting Wisp, worst is telling the truth about being blocked and I am telling the truth about blocking him. Now again you can argue that a buddy blocked Seven which is still logically possible but not at all likely because if I was ever rolecopped the gig would be up. So it’s more likely that I am truth claiming there.
This is actually a great post. I think you and I are actually pretty similar, which is probably why we're at each other's throats. I was literally doing the I'm So Obv Town thing you're doing with Morgan with someone in Osie's last game. My only concern with this is that you seem to be treating The Worst from the point of view of there being one mafia, and I can't help but ponder the idea of it being a perspective slip. There's no reason from town!your perspective that the TvS and TvT probability should be all that different. The Worst's ability not being a targeting ability says nothing about his alignment. At least so long as there is at least one other mafia member alive. We don't know who did the kill, so while yes you RBing him reduces the chance he is scum by a small amount, it doesn't exclude him from being scum.

In summary, all we know is that the worst did not do the kill. And being blocked, he would have known I was lying regardless of his alignment. He would have known I was lying in any scenario that he didn't target wisp.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by moody7277 »

Morgan wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:31 am Sabrar (6/8) - bessie, wam, SuperJedi224, Morgan, Wisp, xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx
SuperJedi224 (5/8) - madge, the worst, Sabrar, MathBlade, moody7277
Wisp (1/8) - Seven
moody7277 (1/8) - Suzaku

Kill [the worst, MathBlade, moody, Suzaku], achieve victory.

Vote MathBlade
Three of the four on your kill list were on the Jedi counter wagon, and Suzaku was voting me just out of inertia because he wasn't here at dayend. Therefore I ask, why not Madge? Not that I want her dead, she's honorable mention towncore right now, probably replacing Seven in that spot.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Seven »

@moody please address this.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Morgan »

I think madge is town. Or at least townier than the other people I mentioned, but I'll acknowledge that I know literally nothing about her. She just seems authentically alone, i.e. not working with a mafia team. Could be neutral, I guess.

I threw Suzaku in there too because they're very absent/low impact.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by moody7277 »

Seven wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:30 am @moody please address this.
So you've pulled this stunt in a lot of games, exactly one of which I was in for any length of time. Still not impressed. Townies lying about power results leads to confusion, and confusion aids scum.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Seven »

moody7277 wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:40 am
Seven wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:30 am @moody please address this.
So you've pulled this stunt in a lot of games, exactly one of which I was in for any length of time. Still not impressed. Townies lying about power results leads to confusion, and confusion aids scum.
That makes no sense.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Seven »

@moody why did you vote Jedi after his claim instead of sabrar?
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 1

Post by Seven »

Morgan wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:18 pm Oh, wait, it’s literally mod-confirmed. Lmao.

Unvote
Why did this matter?
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Seven »

End of Day Wagon Analysis

bessie - First vote Sab. Pre-Jedi claim and was offline during the wagon switch. I change my mind that bessie's vote here is AI as Jedi was looking to be the elim so she could have placed a vote on a mate safely (or at least felt safe to do so). She is still town for other reasons though, namely she was suspicious of Sabrar from early on and was consistent with her thoughts.

*Jedi claims

Wam - Unvotes Jedi
-no change from Morgan
-no change from Wisp
-Morgan promotes Jedi elim
-WMU still on tw
-Wam discourages Jedi elim
-no change Sab, promotes Seven/MB

Wam - Votes Sab [critical vote]
Morgan - Unvote, reasoning suspect
-no change Wisp

Morgan - Votes Suzaku [red alert]

Jedi - Votes Sabrar from Suzaku - Dratz, this would be labeled as a critical vote, but it seems he posted at the same time as Morgs vote. If it had been just a little bit after, this would have sealed Jedi into town supreme as he would have been diverting a potential Suzaku build up from Morgan onto Sab. Still, I think this is highly favorable. I think partnerJedi could have waited longer to crossvote.
-morgan promotes MB elim
-no change WMU
-no change wisp
-wam active

Vote Count
SuperJedi224 (4/8) - madge, the worst, Sabrar, MathBlade
Sabrar (3/8) - bessie, wam, SuperJedi224
moody7277 (2/8) - Suzaku, Wisp
Wisp (2/8) - moody7277, Seven
Suzaku (1/8) - Morgan
the worst (1/8) - xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx

Wisp - Votes Sab. Ties wagons
Mmoody - Votes Jedi
Morgan - Votes Sab

These three votes happen in quick succession so it can't be inferred whether moody saw wisp's vote or Morgan saw moody's vote before posting their own. However, it can be inferred that Morgan's vote was a response to Wisps'.
-Sab denies claiming

Wisp - Votes MB
-Morgan tells moody Jedi isn't the person to vote if trying to secure elim. Supports idea that he didn't see moody's vote before posting his own.
-Morgan promotes MB elim

Wisp - Votes Jedi

Vote Count
SuperJedi224 (6/8) - madge, the worst, Sabrar, MathBlade, moody7277, Wisp
Sabrar (4/8) - bessie, wam, SuperJedi224, Morgan
Wisp (1/8) - Seven
moody7277 (1/8) - Suzaku
the worst (1/8) - xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx

-Sab promotes MB elim [critical], promotes Wisp elim.
-WMU declares will sheep wisp
-Morgan promotes Sab elim
-WMU questions Sab case

Wisp - Votes Sab [critical vote] - ties wagon 4 minutes after WMU said she will sheep, likely saw her post

WMU - Votes Sab
-Sab complains, WMU says we need info, Sab says then you should vote Jedi. Sab trying to convince WMU = WMU not likely mafia.
-Wisp offers Sab a way out
-WMU doubles on not switching to Jedi [green alert]
-Morgan agrees to WMUs reasoning (Jedi was top wagon all day, sign he isn't a wolf), yet Morgan was one of those people on the wagon
-Wisp being a homie, I'm sorry I scumread you man. I'm still recovering from Sudoku.
-Sabrar fighting for a Jedi elim. Unlikely Jedi/Sab partners.
-Moody has been online, why did he not offer his support toward a Sabrar elim. Ignored Jedi's claim entirely.

Conclusions
  • Wam was the catalyst for the Sabrar wagon. It is unlikely he is scum.
  • Morgan seemed to avoid the Sabrar wagon until it tied with Jedi. It is very likely he is scum.
  • Moody sat passively throughout the whole ordeal, ignoring Jedi's claim, and agreed with Wisp's town core despite not yet knowing the result of Sabrar's flip. Moody is a good investigative check, but not a solid elimination for today.
  • Sabrar seemed to genuinely try to make an attempt (with Morgan) to swing to a MB elim. It is likely MB is town.
  • Sabrar seemed to be trying to convince WMU to switch, WMU defended Jedi here and earlier, and she made no attempt to swing things away from Sabrar. It is very likely that WMU is town.
Morgan should be the elimination today.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Seven »

Vote: moody

Please consider my real vote to be on Morgan. I need to be off the elimination wagon for my ability, however, hence my odd voting pattern.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx »

the worst wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:49 am @math I'm interested in pressing into this group: Suzaku, moody, Seven, WMU, Morgan. Do you think I should be doing better than this?

moody & seven are more like, very null (I have reads on them: those reads are that I don't know what their alignment is). the others I just don't have a feeling for yet.
What importance has a feeling in a read for you?
What should one do for you to have a feeling for them?



Sorry i was afk, weekend stuff, etc
Monday is busy but i will try to catch up
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MathBlade
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by MathBlade »

(Yes no avatar super busy)

I will respond to the rest later, but a couple things I want to point out. TvT is more likely to TvS because scum!Ducky I don’t think confirms that I blocked him and announces a future result on Jedi. I agree Ducky isn’t locktown but it’s just a lot less probable he is scum. I think I put that up there. It’s a I know Ducky thing. If Ducky is scum, he either has to give a result on Jedi or kill Jedi which I am not worried about because either we get a scum or narrow PoE.

I am not sure where you’re getting the “I am similar to you” as I utterly despise lying in mafia games. I do like that you’re reviewing things and your reads changed accordingly.

I kinda am feeling rule of three with Morgan/Suzaku.

I think they tried to swap on me for being right on Suzaku early and took advantage of me being offline and Vaimes is way better than this. Their continued push on me I don’t feel is honest. They don’t explain why scum me counters Seven.

Let’s break down me and Seven and all worlds where I am scum.
SvS >> Planned gambit and I solo/two team the game. Having done this numerous times I do not do this intentionally and when I do, I do it in a less obvious way.

SvT >> I losing a scum buddy block in the PoE instead of a universally townread player? Like why? The block is confirmed in this case unless you’re going to argue Me+The worst scumteam which is just wtf?

Any other option has me as town. Like Vaimes knows how to do this sort of thing and is just not.

I also want worst to not be blocked so Vote Morgan
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by osieorb18 »

Votecount

Votee (Votes/Elimination) - Voter(s)
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

MathBlade (2/6) - moody7277, Morgan
Morgan (2/6) - the worst, MathBlade
Seven (1/6) - Wam
moody7277 (1/6) - Seven

Not Voting (5): bessie, madge, SuperJedi224, Suzaku, xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx

Day 2 Elimination Deadline will be 10 AM PST on December 2nd.

Reminder that it takes 4 votes to eliminate by plurality and 6 to eliminate by majority.
AC 2.1
Morgan - 20
Wam - 2
bessie - 3
Seven - 17
SuperJedi224 - 3
MathBlade - 15
moody7277 - 5
madge - 4
the worst - 10
xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx - 1
Suzaku - Uhhhhhhh... I guess 1 if I'm super generous.

First Cutoff
AC 2.2
Morgan - 9
bessie - 2
Seven - 7
MathBlade - 10
the worst - 9
madge - 2
moody7277 - 2
SuperJedi224 - 1
Wam - 1
xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx - 0
Suzaku - 0

Second Cutoff
WMU is VLA for Saturday/Sunday.
Wam is V/LA until Tuesday midday GMT.
Suzaku has been prodded.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by the worst »

Seven wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:43 am
moody7277 wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:40 am
Seven wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:30 am @moody please address this.
So you've pulled this stunt in a lot of games, exactly one of which I was in for any length of time. Still not impressed. Townies lying about power results leads to confusion, and confusion aids scum.
That makes no sense.
exCUSE me how dare you accuse someone other than me of making no sense
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by the worst »

sorry:
vote: Morgan
hadn't caught up.

I'm interested in voting moody
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Morgan »

I originally voted Suzaku because Jedi was voting him, and then Jedi moved either right before or right after I voted. At that point I was pretty much willing to vote any non-townread, hence the switch.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Morgan »

Also, sorry osie, but I fucking hate this “vote affects power” mechanic.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Morgan »

I’ll claim tomorrow if people still have an issue with me, but

1) I would not have let Sabrar die the way he did without claiming
2) I am doubly capable of killing a player, both ways indirectly.

I will vote off Math, moody, or Suzaku. I’m suspicious of the worst but I think I know their role so I’ll leave it alone for one phase.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by Wam »

bessie wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:26 am
somitomi wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:55 pm Wam is V/LA until Tuesday lunchtime
@mods is this lunchtime Wam time or Osie time?

Lunch wam time. Have 5 minutes now though.

unvote

Vote morgan


Seven did my homework for me.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by madge »

I'll probably be much quieter the next few IRL-days, posting-wise, as I'll be busier.

This morgan/moody thing seems sudden but I'm watching.

I note bessie had an early scumread on morgan per my notes, so consider me halfway voting them.

wisp thought moody was scummy and morgan was townie though so i'm a little wary

-----------------
Madge's Notepad
-----------------

BESSIE'S READS SO FAR TODAY:
Morgan scummy
Seven not scummy
(no reads for a while but I'm keeping eye out)

WISP'S READS FROM YESTERDAY:
Wants to kill Jedi (seems to want town to vig)
Last will was that they think wake/morgan/bessie/seven contains at most 1 scum
Previously had a scumread on moody that they kind of abandoned

CLAIM RELATED NOTES:
the worst visited wisp (claimed by Seven, recanted)
mathblade blocked the worst (claimed by mathblade, confirmed by the worst)
the worst doesn't have a targeting role (claimed by the worst)
madge, ratammer's ponywife, she/her
Plug: my vampire romance novel is finished!
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by SuperJedi224 »

vote mathblade
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by SuperJedi224 »

Morgan wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:32 am Also, sorry osie, but I fucking hate this “vote affects power” mechanic.
Agreed, but this is a role madness game
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by moody7277 »

Seven wrote:@moody why did you vote Jedi after his claim instead of sabrar?
I was still reading Jedi as scummy, and the hypothesis that the increase in needed votes for majority elim being solely down to him had not convinced me yet. Plus I'm used to Sabrar being devious enough not to get elimmed as scum D1, that was a real shocker.
Madge wrote:This morgan/moody thing seems sudden but I'm watching.
IIRC Morgan has been the counterwagon to MathBlade all D2, it's just that the worst and wam brought him up to threshold all of a sudden. As for the thing with me, I think it is mostly that I have been on the wrong wagons. The base of it is of course a tale not quite as old as time. Zathras does not mind, has even grown to like it.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by MathBlade »

moody7277 wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:25 pm
Seven wrote:@moody why did you vote Jedi after his claim instead of sabrar?
I was still reading Jedi as scummy, and the hypothesis that the increase in needed votes for majority elim being solely down to him had not convinced me yet. Plus I'm used to Sabrar being devious enough not to get elimmed as scum D1, that was a real shocker.
Madge wrote:This morgan/moody thing seems sudden but I'm watching.
IIRC Morgan has been the counterwagon to MathBlade all D2, it's just that the worst and wam brought him up to threshold all of a sudden. As for the thing with me, I think it is mostly that I have been on the wrong wagons. The base of it is of course a tale not quite as old as time. Zathras does not mind, has even grown to like it.
Incorrect. Seven was the elim then Seven started to town it up so Morgan is a great elim.

Morgan’s responses re Sabrar are just bad.
A>> You can scream at Sabrar to claim something but ultimately you can’t log into their account and post for them.
B>> If you’re doubly capable of killing a player why such a hard push on me? Why not just kill me? My guess is because you’re behind you can’t do that.
C>> You and Jedi are voting me without addressing my alignment in relation to TW and events that happened today. I think you know the position is untenable. If you genuinely think I am scum then you should be able to explain likely theories.

Eg >> You’re suspicious of the worst but their role…
This is IIOA and bad at that. If you’re suspicious of the worst but their role…this means you have to explain why the worst confirms I blocked him as scum. This is such a cop out you’re not doing this. Your reasoning for not Ducky is based on something unproven and your scumread on me is in despite of something proven. You’re not actually doing a mechanics based game.

The only person I agree with in your list as a good elim today is Suzaku. But that’s because they haven’t provided content.
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Re: Songs of Our Times Mafia Game Thread - Day 2

Post by MathBlade »

the worst wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:56 am sorry:
vote: Morgan
hadn't caught up.

I'm interested in voting moody
Bad vote imho. Moody is a lot Townie than most of the game.
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