Millerizer Mafia - Game Over

[madge]

Right and heury came guilty so was either miller or hitman

This is so damn frustrating especially because poor mak has to replace into this clusterfreak

And the person who is playing anti town is uncc'd town so..... Can't even vote Fred off omg

(I am done attempting to analyse anything right now, I gave up when I was privately considering fake cc'ing cop to confuse scum, because it'd confuse town more. But damn it would have been fun to add more chaos but unlike Fred and Prince J I want to win this game omfg)

[Freddino18]

Oh, I know you want to win. As to your question, Sab, still working on my full analysis

[Sabrar]

still working on my full analysis

You should not have to 'work' on the analysis. You were 100% convinced of your conclusions 36 hours ago so you supposedly did the work already.

[bessie]

Fred, this analysis is only valid (note that I said valid, not correct) if Madge and Sabrar are the two non-town players remaining, which you can’t know even if you are the cop. How are you so sure Makhaira is town? Or me?

If there were two Mafia left, we would have seen double night kills, either in the beginning, or last night. Specifically, Mafia would have had a guaranteed win (and we would have had MYLO) if there were two surviving members, either on Day 2 assuming Heury was hitman, or today, assuming he was the Godfather. Because we still have not achieved MYLO, AND the Millerizer hasn't flipped, we have a 3-1-1, not a 2-2-1. 1 scum, 1 neutral, 2 others who are innocent. Who was it that said Sabrar was a hard scum to scrape? It was either you or Somi. I'm not asking you to vote Sabrar today, what I am asking is for you to read back and try to form an opinion on who the Millerizer is.

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This is an interesting misunderstanding from someone that has spent so much time on game mechanics.

There is no way to have two kills in one night in this game. There is exactly one killing role.

This is an open, non-bastard setup. Like I said, we have exactly two non-town remaining. This is mod confirmed.

I don’t get your analysis. Unfortunate you decided to claim based off it.

[Makhaira]

Ok Im over halfway done, made it thru all of day one, thoughts so far

Weird early interactions between Sabrar and Heury, some initial light distancing im perceiving followed by a flip on sabrar from thinking heury was light scum to a town read seemingly out of no where. they seem to be interacting so they dont come off as completing avoiding each other but not enough to build any momentum toward reading/discussing each other. Sabrar is my current lean for heury's buddy at EOD1. I also dont feel any real urgency from sabrar which make me feel the slot isn't really hunting at all, just going through motions and kind of finding easy ways to subtly procrastinate hunting

madge also comes off scummy but gives more of the independent vibe, very inoffensive approach to interaction with other slots and plays somewhat non-committal. this slot feels content to let focus fall anywhere but on her and isnt about to do anything to provocative to get the light shined her way

freddie comes off way too confused and effusive to be scum imo. could be millerizer I guess but claiming cop now as millerizer would make no sense. typical noob town situation but I dont feel like we're being played here, the way he talks about analysis feels to naive to be faked lmao

bessie comes off less scummy than sabrar or madge so seems town based on what ive read thru EOD1

to be clear, no one else is counterclaiming fred right? and there must be a cop still because no one else has claimed cop before so we know that the backup hasn't triggered already?

[Makhaira]

should be able to finish the rest of the game by tonight but im going to be pretty busy for the next few hours so may end up finishing the read tonight and posting full thoughts in the morning depending on how tired I am

[Makhaira]

I didn't see any cop claim D1, if anyone claimed cop after EOD1 and claimed any investigation results reposting them here would be helpful

basically we don't know if heury was godfather or not right? we kind of have to assume that millerizer wins tomorrow if fred is telling the truth about inheriting cop and that heury was godfather. if godfather survives then millerizer cant win until godfather is dead, but we have no way to know if godfather is dead? or wait, someone correct me if im wrong, but with only mafia alive isnt it the case that that mafia player MUST now be a hitman? godfather only keeps his power as miller immune while hitman survives, so either heury was hitman and the remaining mafia player converted to hitman which is miller vulnerable, or heury was godfather so the remaining mafia player was never miller immune in the first place if Im reading the mechanics for godfather/hitman correctly in the OP

[Makhaira]

ok just started D2 and lol answered my own question, ok so somi was cop, got a guilty on heury who was then elim'd, and then somi got NK'd, so the power moved to a random universal backup still living, who based on current claims and lack of counterclaims, seems to be fred

Im assuming the backup that inherits the cop power does not get to investigate the same night they inherit, has this been confirmed? or did I miss fred claiming a new result?

[Seven]

The new and final deadline for D3 is Sunday, April 2nd, 11 pm PDT.

[bessie]

Im assuming the backup that inherits the cop power does not get to investigate the same night they inherit, has this been confirmed? or did I miss fred claiming a new result?

Fred hasn't claimed either way. The question has not been asked or answered in thread. If he has a result a careful reading of Day 3 would give you the answer.

[bessie]

Nevermind. Sabrar, Madge, and I are all experienced players and so are you. We’re low on time and you have a lot of content to analyze.

Please refer to this post. Fred believes Madge is millerizer, Sabrar is mafia, and he and I are millers.

[madge]

Look, there's 5 of us, and 2 scum;

Madge
bessie
Fred
Sabrar
Mak

FMPOV, there's 2 scum in {bessie, fred, sabrar, mak}

Then Fed claims, and there's 2 scum in {bessie, sabrar, mak}

So FMPOV any one of those targets is more likely to be scum than not (from your point of view will be similar, unless you are scum or fred)

Sabrar *feels* different to me. More performative? IDK. But my current scum picks are sabrar and mak, but mak is purely from the Prince J read.

I'd be ok with either being voted off, but I'm leaning more towards Sabrar for some reason. That said, my worst case scenario would be being left alive tomorrow and having to play kingmaker with whatever Mak produces. So I'd rather kingmake with Sabrar in there, if that makes sense? And I think all else being equal it would be better for town to have Mak/Prince J slot out of consideration so we can focus on people who have actually contribute to the game the whole way through

look at me equivocate.

I am probably going to regret this

vote: sabrar

Sabrar feels weird/different than normal, and mak observing weird early interactions with Heury, and as m uch as I'd like to make hypothetical-still-alive-madge's day easier tomorrow, i'd rather vote out the scummier pick now and hope we can live to see tomorrow

(I think bessie is probably town so I won't be changing to her unless someone points something out i missed)

[Sabrar]

some initial light distancing im perceiving followed by a flip on sabrar from thinking heury was light scum to a town read seemingly out of no where.

Incorrect, I never had a 'light scum' read on heury. If you're referring to this then that was a joke (which can be deduced even by players unfamiliar with xkcd-dynamics as I'm normally not using the point-system, with the only other example also clearly being a joke). The rest of your attack I can't argue with because it's all based on gut with no evidence behind to support it.

We need to vote out Millerizer today, a 2-1 against scum is much more preferable than just letting them automatically win at the start of D4.

[bessie]

So Madge, are you voting for Sabrar because you believe he is mafia or because you believe he is millerizer?

[Sabrar]

As to your question, Sab, still working on my full analysis

It would have been interesting to read this, too bad that an additional 24 hours were not enough for you to complete it. Deadline is at 8am my time, I will probably here for the last hour or so. If nothing changes I plan to vote Madge as she is my best guess for Millerizer.

[Freddino18]

Fred, this analysis is only valid (note that I said valid, not correct) if Madge and Sabrar are the two non-town players remaining, which you can’t know even if you are the cop. How are you so sure Makhaira is town? Or me?

If there were two Mafia left, we would have seen double night kills, either in the beginning, or last night. Specifically, Mafia would have had a guaranteed win (and we would have had MYLO) if there were two surviving members, either on Day 2 assuming Heury was hitman, or today, assuming he was the Godfather. Because we still have not achieved MYLO, AND the Millerizer hasn't flipped, we have a 3-1-1, not a 2-2-1. 1 scum, 1 neutral, 2 others who are innocent. Who was it that said Sabrar was a hard scum to scrape? It was either you or Somi. I'm not asking you to vote Sabrar today, what I am asking is for you to read back and try to form an opinion on who the Millerizer is.

like wut.PNG



This is an interesting misunderstanding from someone that has spent so much time on game mechanics.

There is no way to have two kills in one night in this game. There is exactly one killing role.

This is an open, non-bastard setup. Like I said, we have exactly two non-town remaining. This is mod confirmed.

I don’t get your analysis. Unfortunate you decided to claim based off it.

You fucking asked me how I knew there were only two non-town remaining. Don't give me this shit.

[Freddino18]

I didn't see any cop claim D1, if anyone claimed cop after EOD1 and claimed any investigation results reposting them here would be helpful

basically we don't know if heury was godfather or not right? we kind of have to assume that millerizer wins tomorrow if fred is telling the truth about inheriting cop and that heury was godfather. if godfather survives then millerizer cant win until godfather is dead, but we have no way to know if godfather is dead? or wait, someone correct me if im wrong, but with only mafia alive isnt it the case that that mafia player MUST now be a hitman? godfather only keeps his power as miller immune while hitman survives, so either heury was hitman and the remaining mafia player converted to hitman which is miller vulnerable, or heury was godfather so the remaining mafia player was never miller immune in the first place if Im reading the mechanics for godfather/hitman correctly in the OP

The reason we got Heury was because Somi claimed cop and stated he came up as guilty N1, so we assume he was the hitman.

[Freddino18]

ok just started D2 and lol answered my own question, ok so somi was cop, got a guilty on heury who was then elim'd, and then somi got NK'd, so the power moved to a random universal backup still living, who based on current claims and lack of counterclaims, seems to be fred

Im assuming the backup that inherits the cop power does not get to investigate the same night they inherit, has this been confirmed? or did I miss fred claiming a new result?

I was told after the day had already begun because Seven "forgot". If I was supposed to be able to investigate, I did not get the opportunity. I assume that Cop investigates before the Mafia strikes.

Are we allowed to paraphrase DM's?

[Freddino18]

Oh god I'm becoming EGW. I have 9-ish hours to read days 2 and 3, starting now.

[bessie]

You fucking asked me how I knew there were only two non-town remaining. Don't give me this shit.

When was this??

[Makhaira]

some initial light distancing im perceiving followed by a flip on sabrar from thinking heury was light scum to a town read seemingly out of no where.

Incorrect, I never had a 'light scum' read on heury. If you're referring to this then that was a joke (which can be deduced even by players unfamiliar with xkcd-dynamics as I'm normally not using the point-system, with the only other example also clearly being a joke). The rest of your attack I can't argue with because it's all based on gut with no evidence behind to support it.

We need to vote out Millerizer today, a 2-1 against scum is much more preferable than just letting them automatically win at the start of D4.

"it was a joke" is a lame excuse tbh not saying you're lying about that tho, but are we sure it was that obvious? heury doesnt seem to think its a joke here unless im misreading something

No read is lame.

.
heury: I don't think I ever saw them using the point system. -1

Touche

also heury does weird stuff re: your slot like talk about who you're not scum with but doesnt give us much of his thought about you directly

I’m always suspicious of reads that seem forced, like the reads are trying to conform to the setup.

Love this.

Updated read on Bessie, very unlikely to be scum partners with sabrar.

Updated read on Prince J, I like the opening posts as they do seem to be honest scum hunting. Not likely to be scum partners with sabrar or Madge.

Updated read on heury, has made some great points and therefore definitely town.

Then like insta bussing of you right after somi's claim and result come out, bad look

Did Heury just give up and vanish?

What an accusation. Only 4 living players had posted since my post. We were still waiting on everyone's daily posts.
Despite the likelihood of my getting voted off by end of today, I'll still put in my part to get some reads and help town identify the true culprits. Really wanting to see updated reads from prince.

Updated reads list:
More Towny
Heury
Somitomi
Fred
Prince J (dropped due to lack of content thus far)
Bessie
Sabrar
Madge
Less Towny

and then of course you're both on court miselim

I will concede tho that my read of you is more based on heury's treatment of you than vice versa, and gut for sure

I do agree that millerizer has to be the target today though, and madge def is my frontrunner for that slot

gonna finish reading now, ill be around for deadline

@fred @bessie I'm pretty confident we are the last three town so we basically need to decide who the millerizer is between madge and sab and go for that elim first, then assuming they flip non-town we elim the other in lylo, really hoping the end of D2 doesnt change my mind on your two

[Freddino18]

Fred, this analysis is only valid (note that I said valid, not correct) if Madge and Sabrar are the two non-town players remaining, which you can’t know even if you are the cop. How are you so sure Makhaira is town? Or me?

Sorry, misread this, thought you said only between the and two in the bolded section.

@Makhaira: Hopefully we can convince Bessie, as if we're right, and we do end up killing the Millerizer, I suspect that the Mafia will keep you and Bessie alive so that Bessie will continue to vote against you. It seems like everyone agrees that Bessie is town.

[Makhaira]

I'm fairly certain Madge is mafia. I think either Sabrar or Bessie is the millerizer. If Bessie is not millerizer she is likely town. If Sabrar is not millerizer he is likely the other mafia. At the end d1 I was playing with the idea of Bessie as Madge's scum partner but right now I think that's less than likely. And now more than ever she's been following her town meta. That leaves either Fred or prince that could be scum partners with Madge and I'm less and less confident about prince.

Vote: Prince J

wild that heury would post all this and then vote for my slot lmao wtf? vote does not track with the analysis imo

yeah, I have that effect

This is the most action that's occured all day.

no way this is theater this is too funny hahahaha not that freds claim didnt already make it obvious he was town with no cc

this post was validating because I was def feeling that sab was playing very coasty all game especially day two

I think there is a decent chance neither of us get killed tonight. But since you ask, I saw you put me in the potential indie category, do you really think I could be Millerizer?

You seem ... more distant than usual. Kinda like how Madge seems more invested than usual.

@Madge, I was never going to let it go to no elim. Why would you even ask that?

bessie seems actually offended here, genuine engagement moment

Okay, let's talk about the Millerizer (Mz for short).

Mz can win D3, D4 or D5, all of them being quite hard to pull off. Mz is always in danger of being voted off or killed at night therefore if the opportunity presents itself, they should try to make it happen asap. somitomi's early reveal meant that it was unlikely that heury would survive until D3 and also that somitomi himself did not need to be millarized. So if Mz targeted successfully D1 and somitomi would not be killed N2 then - assuming heury was indeed Hitman AND scum hits the last townie - D3 all Mz needs to do is to target the last remaining player and win.
I think Madge might be Mz precisely because she practically begged scum not to kill the cop, thereby giving herself the best chance to win early.

gut tells me millerizer!sabrar doesnt go out of his way to do this given the way in played D2, like hes perfectly comfortable to lay low, why would he center attention on his own wincon in a low content game thats accepting him coasting by (not a shot, this was understandable not a high volume game by D2 after the claim)

Would you vote for Sabrar? If not, for whom do you plan on voting today?

I would gladly vote sabrar today, though preference is Madge. I think it's more important to hit mafia today.

heury also very eager to distance/buss sabrar here. kinda wild how much heury got away with shadin sab and he never pushes back

yeah finishing D2 and re-reading D3 start hasn't changed my reads, pretty sure the solve is millerizer!madge, scum!sab, town!fred town!bessie

Vote: Madge

bessie and fred if you think I have them wrong and that we should go sabrar instead today Im all ears, lmk your thoughts, but idk this feels like the solve to me at this point

[bessie]

I don't like Madge's last point but am willing to give her a chance to explain it. She has not given a good reason for voting for Sabrar, and it seems like self preservation, not scum hunting.

[bessie]

I'm leaning Madge but want to give everyone time to talk, since tomorrow will be all wine.