Animal Kingdom Mafia (Game Over)

Sit back, relax, and enjoy some forum-based games.
User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 92
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 1)

Post by somitomi »

Nice to see you, Jimbob
somitomi wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:48 pm You're discussing only BoomFrog's side of interactions between us, can you maybe talk about what you think of my posts in this particular context?
@Wam: can we get back to this then?
messie wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:05 am Also, I don't know how to bring this up as it's a kind of complicated situation that is specific to my, uh, circumstances. I'm half-convinced that I've been poisoned or visited by an arsonist and half-convinced I've been visited by a fruit vendor (though it's not fruit). In either case, I don't want a town poisoner/arsonist/fruit vendor to out themselves, but you should be able to find my crumb for later use if you look very closely. If I die of poison/arson, then the half of me that believes I was poisoned wants to go on the record and state that Makhaira and Eido are townie and Wam and Somi are scummy.
Huh. I know I shouldn't metagame, but an arsonist or poisoner isn't something I'd expect in a newbie game.
messie wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 5:00 am Disagree. BoomFrog would be open to a bus if it was a path to winning. I even posted an example earlier for Makhaira:
Not sure what you're disagreeing with here, I'm also saying BoomFrog would be down for a bus. All I'm saying here is that if the effortposting done for the bus somehow actaully saves BoomFrog, that's not bad for mafia either.
Huh? How do you reconcile this with the underlined comment in the first quote above? Or the entire quote for that matter?
I feel like there's a difference in kind here, Makhaira and BoomFrog had a slowly escalating conflict over the course of the game, whereas Wam pulled a 180°so suddenly that it apparently surprised even BoomFrog. That doesn't feel like theatre, although I admit that BoomFrog could be another parallel universe ahead of me here.
—◯-◯
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by Wam »

Welcome jimbob. I'm pretty busy over the weekend so apologies but will get to things Sunday evening and monday.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

In case it wasn't clear, my partial analysis was of messie. I've not had the time this evening to finish that analysis. Hopefully over the course of the weekend I'll get to the other player analyses.

Things I want to consider:
1) Would BoomFrog have made that "Huh" post in reaction to a scum buddy? If not, wam is in the clear.
2) Would scum!somitomi/BoomFrog have risked the bussing at the end of D1 like they did?
3) What's with the gift left to messie? Should others claim if they received something similar?
4) Related to 3. I'm trying to decide how much to speculate about the setup. We know we had a scum!Tracker and town!Doctor. We also probably have some kind of Fruit Vendor, presumably Town, and at a guess as a means to fool the scum!Tracker. Given the number of vanilla Town who have flipped, I don't think it's likely that there's a second scum PR. There may be other town PRs too (this statement should not be construed as me claiming VT or PR). How confident can Town be that the Fruit Vendor (insert other PR that fulfils a similar function) is Town, and should they claim (I neither confirm nor deny that I am that person, and would be interested to hear other players thoughts on this)?
User avatar
messie
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:21 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by messie »

Goes without saying that we're probably at 1v3 which means NL should be strategically optimal.

@somitomi: yes, the half of me that is convinced it was a fruit vendor thinks that poisoner and arsonist are both not newbie friendly roles, but that fruit vendor doesn't seem super newbie friendly either (because it requires a certain kind of strategic thinking). But I was given a present (not claiming which night).

Time for some strategery.

Given what we know, the setup was probably:

8 v 2
& we're currently at 3 v 1

Flipped:
4 VT, 1 Doc / 1 Tracker

Probably 1 or 2 more VT. Scum might have a PR but I would expect something now-irrelevant like a strongman, but if we have a cop or similar then a godfather is a possibility.

We have either a fruit vendor or arsonist/poisoner. Given the lack of extra deaths from arson/poison I'm going to assume fruit vendor for now.

Setup was probably 6 VT, doc, vendor / tracker+VS

So we're not going to have a cop magically ride in and solve this for us in my opinion. The vendor is just a named townie (and so should claim & out my breadcrumb if in danger of being voted off, but keep quiet otherwise).

Thinking it through, it might benefit us for the vendor to claim today. If vendor claims tomorrow, scum might want to counterclaim. If they claim today, scum doesn't counterclaim. But... wait, no, scum might target them for the NK since they're a named townie.

I think at this point we can assume that any investigative roles (which we probably don't have) don't have any useful results, and the vendor doesn't want to claim (I agree they shouldn't). Is there anything else to be said today? Should we NL and get this over with?

@jimbob - I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out to you but the OP says clearly that there are exactly two factions, so there's no third party to concern ourselves with.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

messie wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:17 am Thinking it through, it might benefit us for the vendor to claim today. If vendor claims tomorrow, scum might want to counterclaim. If they claim today, scum doesn't counterclaim. But... wait, no, scum might target them for the NK since they're a named townie.
I'm thinking about this analysis more. Let's assume the Fruit Vendor targets can 100% corroborate any Fruit Vendor claim, and that the Fruit Vendor is Town. Let's also assume we have at least two FV targets alive by D5. For the sake of the following analysis I'll call them messie and jimbob (jimbob is a placeholder, messie is messie). Let's also assume the Fruit Vendor is not killed tonight (since if they are, this analysis is pointless).

We could have any of the following cases in D5, assuming NL tonight:
1. town!messie, dead-town!jimbob, FV, scum
2. dead-town!messie, town!jimbob, FV, scum
3. scum!messie, dead-town!jimbob, FV, VT
4. dead-town!messie, scum!jimbob, FV, VT
The jimbob entry can be swapped with the fourth player for the same set of results, so I haven't specifically listed those cases.

In case 1, if scum counter-claims, then messie can corroborate the real FV. Scum gets elimmed. If scum doesn't counter-claim, then FV is confirmed.

In case 2, jimbob can corroborate the FV, as per case 1.

In case 3, messie cannot claim to be the fruit vendor, since she already claimed to be a target. If she refused to corroborate the Fruit Vendor, then we know she is lying, since there must be a Fruit Vendor (since if there wasn't, she'd also be lying). Ergo, she must corroborate the Fruit Vendor.

In case 4, jimbob could refuse to corroborate the Fruit Vendor, but only by counter-claiming. If they don't counter-claim, then the lack of a counter-claim implies the claimed FV is Town and jimbob is scum for refusing to corroborate them. If jimbob counter-claims, then the remaining townie is confirmed town instead of the FV, so it's the same net effect.

Basically, it looks like whatever the situation, if the Fruit Vendor survives the night, either they or the other townie is confirmed Town following their claim.
messie wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:17 am Is there anything else to be said today? Should we NL and get this over with?
In bessie voice: what's the rush? Are you afraid town might figure you out if they have log enough to discuss it? ;) (Also, I'm not ready yet: due to my limited availability, I want to get as much analysis done this game day as possible in case I'm the player making the decision on D5).
messie wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:17 am @jimbob - I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out to you but the OP says clearly that there are exactly two factions, so there's no third party to concern ourselves with.
Thanks. Missed that.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Resuming where I left off, with messie D2:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 1: Asks wam what not liked about BF vote on somi. Challenges Eido over Sabrar identifying BF as scum giving reason for night kill (any scum would have). somi comment re. kill reason not occurring to him suspicious, but cannot articulate yet. Eido putting BoomFrog at L-2 opportunistic because scum could hammer if not already voting.
Post 2: asks for wam's opinion on Phillip's D1 content and vote.
Post 3: asks Makhaira to unvote to allow more discussion.
Post 4: invites Phillip to ask mentor about L-1 and how suspicious.
Post 5: wam response didn't answer question. BF town reading her and heury would make sense to want to vote elsewhere. Notes scum!BF didn't need to bank on Heury town, as two factions. Might come back to Phillip question and response. Asks Eido why he thinks scum not afraid of watcher, as Sabrar obvious Watched target. "Like really" to somitomi hard time reading D1.
Post 6: Having trouble justifying keeping Phillip in the game. Gives example of confirmation post analysis. Sabrar being wrong about early tunnels why suspicious of wam using Sabrar as an excuse to vote BF in first D2 post. Explains BF question to makhaira. Tries to explain that she didn't think specifically two scum, referencing previous posts. Two halves disagree over self-pres voting.
Post 7: Coaches Phillip.
Post 8: Asks wam to explain what suspicious of BF's vote on somi. Still thinking about who else. Suspicious of those that piled on BF so quickly, and noted wam unvoted to avoid early hammer. Asks Makhaira why not acknowledged request to unvote and why she singled them out. Eido didn't react to her comment re. Sabrar obvious watcher target. Asks Eido to point out where BF talks about low effort likely containing scum; doesn't see it. Thinks Phillip making post in the night poor reasoning for putting Phillip at top of list. Wants BF to work on proving his strategy works.
Post 9: BF should treat every day as last and should say everything before deadline. Disagrees with BF about wam being a passive player. Asks wam what he thinks of her comments about somi's reads list. Eido misreading BF's post. Corrects Eido about BF low/high efforts + scum. Volume != effort != towniness. Seems confused by somi's fast pivot to voting wam.
Post 10: Doesn't need to solve Phillip - can solve enough other people and Phillip will sort himself. Asks Eido why asking her about him.
Post 11: Answer is there if one is enlightened enough to see it. Suggests to Makhaira No Elim should be saved for MYLO. Willing to consider voting Phillip, and would have already if it weren't a newbie game. Admits to makhaira was self-prezzing, and had already explained.
Post 12: Woof/grrr list with Mark, BF towniest; somi, wam scummiest.
Post 13: Notes different tie-breaker No Elim policy to usual. Thinking about strategy impact.
Post 14: Gets not-scum feeling from BF.
Post 15: Asks for more ordered lists, votes somi as placeholder. Thinks Mak and BF are not scum.
Post 16: Wonders if somi online in time to check thread. Switches vote to wam.
Post 17: Points out to BF that possible for someone to want to elim Phillip regardless of alignment.
Post 18: Up to Mak to decide.
Post 19: Reread somi's posts; doesn't get lost townie feel from him. Suggests Mak should take account of somi being light poster. somi experienced and clever.
Post 20: strong possibility of wam/somi scum team, despite votals.
Post 21: posting thoughts until deadline; BF should do same.
Post 22: thinks should have gone for phillip.
Post 23: Eido could stay on BF or switch to wam; only choice.
messie wrote: Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:54 pm Opportunistic of you to put a BoomFrog at L-2 at day start, when not everyone has posted yet. In theory, scum can hammer, if they’re not already voting.
@messie, could you explain this. How was Eido being "opportunistic" here? What did this do to your read of him?

Also, why did the thoughts about tied votals/no elim not come on D1?

I'm worried of tunnelling messie here, but some of her effort doesn't feel right D2. In particular, I just feel like her BoomFrog interactions are different to those with other players. I also feel like she's desperately trying to save BoomFrog towards the end of day 2. Her push to get Phillip policy elimmed feels bad too. I don't recall either bessie or Madge having this attitude (though I admit I might be wrong), and it felt a little like she was just trying to get an easy mis-elim.

More tomorrow. Time to get ready for bed.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

Where is everyone?

Onto messie Day 3:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 1: Questions why mak thinks people conf town; not confirmed to her unless mod-voice confirmed. Ask mak to represent his case, taking account of rebuttals and supporting evidence. Reminds Eido BF was deciding vote, not somi. Prods Eido for reply to earlier post. Accuses mak of rushing elimination, and they should generate more content. D4 is going to be all the low posters. Asks Phillip if he's been talking to his mentor. Didn't understand somi's fast pivot to wam, given vote for wam was for pivoting fast. Asks somi to explain why wam scummy enough for vote yesterday, and if still finds him scum. Wants somi's reread.
Post 2: Asks messie why Mak confident they'll be part of D4.
Post 3: BF capable of full bus, and would enjoy immensely. Mak refusing to reevaluate her despite her replies. Mak considering might be night kill tonight wouldn't have suggested ending day so early. Waiting for somi explanation.
Post 4: Suggests Mak argument with BF distancing. Thinks Mak would be good enough to pull off a full bus strat. Sarcasm Mak must consider content because they are town, and wants to find truth. What Mak trying to do doesn't work with her. Interesting NK won't silence Mak, given quick hammer suggestion earlier.
Post 5: Looked through BoomFrog's post history for his interactions (counting and categorising them only). BF attacked Mak for rolefishing, but later approved. BF D1 townie read of Eido weird. BF fight with Sabrar didn't mean Sabrar was town. Only mention of somi by BoomFrog was twice saying somi scummy on D1. BF flipping to finding her towniest weird. BF ignored Mark (town), heavily interacted with Sabrar (town) and her (who everyone thinks is scum). Annoyed nothing prettier in the end from analysis. BF fighting with Mak makes want to believe not buddies. Thinks BF balancing attention well as scum or should have used different metric. Wam, somi, Eido all possible buddies due to being in middle zone. Suspicious of wam not taking side on BF wagon and BF's sudden D2 scum read. Somi had similar change of opinions. BF Eido opinion changes, but BF claimed was part of gambit.
Post 6: Account snafu.
Post 7: Fights probably mean not scum vs town. Something feels off about wam. Would prefer voting off wam. Woof/Grr with Mak, Eido towniest, wam/somi scummiest. Claims visited by arsonist/poisoner/fruit vendor.
Post 8: EBWOP to fix.
Post 9: BF would be open to a bus if path to winning. Responses to Mak - with little research could figure out that bussing a BF thing. Agrees with Mak re. Phillip. Not trying to make people paranoid of a bus. Asks somi how reconciles earlier comment and wam bussing/not bussing comment. Asks Eido what about somi end of D1 content clears him versus Mak's end of D2 content. Not's wam's not quite LAMIST quip.
Post 10: was going to request votals.
Post 11: votes somi
Post 12: one thing two interpretations re. what happened to her. Asks Eido why somi is town. Half will vote to self pres.
Post 13: votes Mak
Post 14: challenges how hard was somi bus.
Post 15: somi could have been online at deadline, if felt partner in danger.
messie wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:03 am
gotta be either somitomi or messie and obviously given everything I re-read and then shared yesterday messie is my lead pick
Ok. Please re-present your case, taking into account any times where I rebutted an accusation and posted supporting evidence.
This feels a bit rich given how bessie refused to accept osie's rebuttals to her arguments in the previous game (yes osie was scum, but it's irrelevant to the point).

Overall, messie's D3 content does feel better than her D1/D2 content. In particular, I'm unconvinced scum!messie would have spent the time to do the interaction analysis that she did. I also like that she stuck by this analysis, despite the fact that it showed Mak as townie, even though she seemed to be finding him scummy for the first half of the day. I'm also inclined to think that scum!messie doesn't bother claiming the Fruit Vendor/Arsonist/Poisoner visit.

@messie, could you explain what you find scummy about wam? What do you think about BoomFrog's "Huh" comment about wam? Could you elaborate a bit why you considered somitomi scummier?

Going to try to spend time looking at wam and somitomi now. We'll see if I get through them.

Has anybody got any questions for me that will help you sort me?

@all, finally, if you had to eliminate someone today, who would it be?
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 3)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

somitomi D1:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 1: Votes Makhaira (RVS). Asks for his prior experience.
Post 2: Not played with Phillip, but played with other XKCders. Inside joke re. wam. Asks heury what so excited about.
Post 3: "Why does 66% mean 3 scum?" response to Sabrar. Wished D1 was over that quickly? Asks heury whether he thinks BF would rehash old gambit.
Post 4: Accepts simple maths - brain not working. Asks if we know whether Phillip has a mentor. Thinks Phillip would ask mentor regardless of alignment, so him asking question in thread could be a trick. @heury - how do you forget you have a read on someone? Jokes Sabrar needs "crippling self-doubt".
Post 5: Unvotes. Defends/explains asking question. Leaning town on Makhaira (doesn't know why singled out). Phillips feels weird, but within newbie range. Going to gather thoughts later.
Post 6: heury's snarky tone pinging, town!heury more easy-going. Makhaira asking about setup seems fishy.
Post 7: Has Eido/wam/Sabrar/Mark as friendly, not done anything suspicious; maybe - Mak (setup question)/Phillip (need more from him, don't think would be advised to take refuge in audacity as mafia); shady - messie (him being high on her list after getting FoS), heury (less easy-going than usual), BF (early-game weirdness, reads on Eido and Sabrar don't sit right). Unconfident, but votes BoomFrog. Doesn't expect to be back before deadline.
There's not much content in somitomi's D1, but what I see is certainly far from objectionable. The fact that he picked up BoomFrog as scum is to me the big thing. He'd not really talked about BoomFrog prior to this post, which is fair enough given his overall content level. I feel like he could easily have justified voting heury instead, to protect BoomFrog. Instead, he makes Boom a viable elimination candidate (requiring only one switched vote to seal it). The fact that he wasn't expecting to be back before deadline renders the idea that he could change the vote last-minute to protect BoomFrog false, because it would have looked super-suspect if BoomFrog later flipped scum that somitomi swerved away to save him. It could have been a risky gambit, pushed by BoomFrog, but I'm not convinced.

Day 2:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 1: Can't draw far-reaching conclusions from the kill (Sabrar is strong town player). Might be a diversion if he's right.
Post 2: Didn't occur to him that not all players familiar with Sabrar as strong town player. Doesn't see connection between Sabrar flip and messie warranting closer look.
Post 3: Interested why Eido decided to vote at that time. Doesn't think Phillip mafia, but he'll be a liability if he justs follows the crowd. Concerned by Boom wagon speed despite own suspicions. Doesn't think Mafia started with bussing in mind, but messie only person putting up any kind of resistance, yet messie bussing would actually make sense. Wouldn't think Boom would have killed Sabrar, but maybe nailed scum team were scared enough to not let him live. BoomFrog's "why do you think messie is my scum buddy" comes out of nowhere, since Sabrar gave no hint of finding messie suspicious. Thinks Boom might have tried to discredit BoomFrog/messie team. Conversation with messie re. sleepy post/suspicions etc.
Post 4: Hard time reading people D1. BoomFrog reasoning more solid than partial OMGUS based read on messie.
Post 5: Asks BF if scum read on Eido/Sabrar part of gambit? BF rather found excuse to vote heury. Asks Mak how night kill target impacts read of Boom/messie. @messie "will we ever find a way to co-exist"? Doesn't think low-efforts likelier to be mafia - activity NAI.
Post 6: Not knowing where his vote going is running gag. Reading rest of analysis now.
Post 7: Doesn't see many possible mates for BoomFrog. Find's Boom's case convincing. Votes wam for fast pivot.
There are only two things I find of note in somi's D2 content. In his third post, I like his thoughts on what BoomFrog was potentially doing re. messie/BoomFrog team - it suggests he's thinking about things at least. The other thing was his vote on wam, which seems out of nowhere. It's very odd given he's allowing himself to be persuaded by his previous top scum read. That being said, I do recall finding myself when reading along being persuaded a bit by Boom's logic.

Day 3 and wam to follow tomorrow hopefully (but no promises).
User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 92
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by somitomi »

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:07 pm 3) What's with the gift left to messie? Should others claim if they received something similar?
4) Related to 3. I'm trying to decide how much to speculate about the setup. We know we had a scum!Tracker and town!Doctor. We also probably have some kind of Fruit Vendor, presumably Town, and at a guess as a means to fool the scum!Tracker. Given the number of vanilla Town who have flipped, I don't think it's likely that there's a second scum PR. There may be other town PRs too (this statement should not be construed as me claiming VT or PR). How confident can Town be that the Fruit Vendor (insert other PR that fulfils a similar function) is Town, and should they claim (I neither confirm nor deny that I am that person, and would be interested to hear other players thoughts on this)?
I think the fruit vendor should keep quiet for now, otherwise they'd become a target for the remaining mafia as messie said. The fruit vendor should be able to confirm themselves tomorrow by claiming their targets for each night, because at least one player who received fruit will be alive (either mafia kills messie, but the FV gives fruit to someone else or mafia and FV target the same person and messie lives). That player either corroborates the claim or has to counterclaim, so then the third player has to be kingmaker instead. I know I'm retracing jimbob's analysis here, but it occured to me that this third scenario is eliminated if there is another player alive today with fruit. I think they should keep that to themselves though, otherwise they could out the fruit vendor.
messie wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:17 am @somitomi: yes, the half of me that is convinced it was a fruit vendor thinks that poisoner and arsonist are both not newbie friendly roles, but that fruit vendor doesn't seem super newbie friendly either (because it requires a certain kind of strategic thinking). But I was given a present (not claiming which night).
I think a fruit vendor is a lot less newbie-unfriendly than a poisoner or an arsonist though. Don't remember playing a game with an arsonist, but it seems like it could make the game rather swingy.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 4:38 pm @all, finally, if you had to eliminate someone today, who would it be?
Right now I'm leaning towards messie, but that might be because she's been filed under suspicious for longer.
—◯-◯
User avatar
messie
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:21 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by messie »

Sorry I’ve been so busy this weekend! My person had band practice and its one of my jobs to sit in the middle of the floor and get yelled at! I also have to greet everyone as they arrive and present my ears to get rubbed! I was a very good puppy so I got a cookie and they sent me outside to bark at the squirrels! Woof!
hoku at band practice.png
hoku at band practice.png (118.02 KiB) Viewed 652 times


jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:07 pm Things I want to consider:
1) Would BoomFrog have made that "Huh" post in reaction to a scum buddy? If not, wam is in the clear.
2) Would scum!somitomi/BoomFrog have risked the bussing at the end of D1 like they did?
3) What's with the gift left to messie? Should others claim if they received something similar?
4) Related to 3. I'm trying to decide how much to speculate about the setup. We know we had a scum!Tracker and town!Doctor. We also probably have some kind of Fruit Vendor, presumably Town, and at a guess as a means to fool the scum!Tracker. Given the number of vanilla Town who have flipped, I don't think it's likely that there's a second scum PR. There may be other town PRs too (this statement should not be construed as me claiming VT or PR). How confident can Town be that the Fruit Vendor (insert other PR that fulfils a similar function) is Town, and should they claim (I neither confirm nor deny that I am that person, and would be interested to hear other players thoughts on this)?
1) I think you know better than to clear someone based on that reasoning. Scum slips and town slips of that type are easy to fake, especially for someone of BoomFrog’s level.
2) Yes I believe it was not that great of a risk. As I have said before, BoomFrog, not somitomi, was the deciding vote. And there’s a reasonable chance that some players would lock a town read on somitomi for it.
3) Unless we no elim, this is the last day. And even if we no elim, mafia may have a power to make this the last day.
4) With a town doctor I think another mafia PR is possible.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:01 am In bessie voice: what's the rush? Are you afraid town might figure you out if they have log enough to discuss it? ;) (Also, I'm not ready yet: due to my limited availability, I want to get as much analysis done this game day as possible in case I'm the player making the decision on D5).
Sorry half my brain missed that, and that half is totally against ending day early.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:10 pm @messie, could you explain this. How was Eido being "opportunistic" here? What did this do to your read of him?
Exactly as explained. Eido put BoomFrog at L-2 about a day into D2 (on a weekend) before Mark and I had an opportunity to post.

Votals at the time of Eido’s vote:
BoomFrog (3) : Wam, Makhaira, Eido
Not voting: BoomFrog, somitomi, messie, Mark_Cangila, Philip

And if you think it’s not likely someone would quick hammer, I remind you that Philip already said he suspected BoomFrog and voted for him after I posted, putting BoomFrog at L-1.


jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:10 pm Also, why did the thoughts about tied votals/no elim not come on D1?
Because in almost every game I have played No Elim wins ties. I was thinking about what this meant to the setup and strategy, and came up with at 1-1, the first person online wins which seems exactly the opposite of how a game should be decided. And I did ask the mod, and in the case of 1-1 endgame mafia would win.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:10 pm I'm worried of tunnelling messie here, but some of her effort doesn't feel right D2. In particular, I just feel like her BoomFrog interactions are different to those with other players. I also feel like she's desperately trying to save BoomFrog towards the end of day 2. Her push to get Phillip policy elimmed feels bad too. I don't recall either bessie or Madge having this attitude (though I admit I might be wrong), and it felt a little like she was just trying to get an easy mis-elim.
Oh? I was trying to save BoomFrog at the end of D2 because I thought he was town. I believe I was trying even harder to save Makhaira at the end of D3. What do you read into that?

I never pushed to get Philip policy eliminated. But I would have supported it D2.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 4:38 pm This feels a bit rich given how bessie refused to accept osie's rebuttals to her arguments in the previous game (yes osie was scum, but it's irrelevant to the point).
This is total BS and pisses me off because Osie’s and bessie’s alignments are completely relevant. If you read through that game, Osie deliberately flooded the thread with content knowing he was making it impossible for bessie to respond, given she had stated that she only plays about an hour a night on weeknights (and this is also well known among players). And the other players requested bessie not respond. Osie was able to twist that into bessie refusing to respond. If you wish to get a better insight into that game, have Seven/Zen/the co mod give you the link to scum chat.


I’ll be back in a bit I’m going outside to have an angry bark.
User avatar
messie
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:21 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by messie »

I’m back from my bark!
barking my head off.PNG
barking my head off.PNG (202.91 KiB) Viewed 645 times
Where was I?


somitomi wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:54 pm
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 4:38 pm @all, finally, if you had to eliminate someone today, who would it be?
Right now I'm leaning towards messie, but that might be because she's been filed under suspicious for longer.
Ok. Why do you find me scummy, and why have you not expressed more concern about my possible scumminess before now? Why have you hardly interacted with me, despite me putting an FoS on you on Day 1, and hardly letting up on you throughout the entire game? I even tried to swing the elimination to you every Day, and you have been consistently at the bottom of half my brain’s woof-grr list.

Should you fail at answering the above, why do you find Wam townie?
User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 92
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by somitomi »

messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am 1) I think you know better than to clear someone based on that reasoning. Scum slips and town slips of that type are easy to fake, especially for someone of BoomFrog’s level.
2) Yes I believe it was not that great of a risk. As I have said before, BoomFrog, not somitomi, was the deciding vote. And there’s a reasonable chance that some players would lock a town read on somitomi for it.
3) Unless we no elim, this is the last day. And even if we no elim, mafia may have a power to make this the last day.
4) With a town doctor I think another mafia PR is possible.
2) Since you brought this point up again, I'd like you to answer my question here, because I don't remember you doing so.
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:47 am Ok. Why do you find me scummy, and why have you not expressed more concern about my possible scumminess before now?
Not sure what you're talking about here, I have repeatedly mentioned my suspicions about you and even speculated about a link between you and Boomfrog before Boom flipped.
Why have you hardly interacted with me, despite me putting an FoS on you on Day 1, and hardly letting up on you throughout the entire game? I even tried to swing the elimination to you every Day, and you have been consistently at the bottom of half my brain’s woof-grr list.
I feel like I could ask you the same, you voted me often for sure, but you didn't actually talk to me that much and most of those discussions didn't last too long. There's a good example of that right above. When I wrote this post, I fully expected to become the target of a classic bessie tunnel (which was admittedly a somewhat flawed expecteation, since you're greater than the sum of your halves), but even though I was your top scumread all game, I never felt like I was under much scrutiny from you.
Should you fail at answering the above, why do you find Wam townie?
Just because I'm more suspicious of you, doesn't mean I'm not at all suspicious of Wam.
—◯-◯
User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 92
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by somitomi »

Speaking of Wam, where is the guy?
—◯-◯
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by Wam »

somitomi wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:59 pm Speaking of Wam, where is the guy?
Catching up, sorry had a busy weekend which took a lot out of me. In gaps between other things I'm trying to so a whole re read.
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

somitomi wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:54 pm I think they should keep that to themselves though, otherwise they could out the fruit vendor.
Agreed.
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am I’ll be back in a bit I’m going outside to have an angry bark.
Apologies I didn't mean to touch a raw nerve here. Not having been involved in that game, I don't have a full feel for how it went down in realtime etc.
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am I think you know better than to clear someone based on that reasoning.
Of course. When I eventually get around to reading wam, it'll only be something I consider, but won't be a deciding factor in itself to my opinion.
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am 3) Unless we no elim, this is the last day. And even if we no elim, mafia may have a power to make this the last day.
How does this relate to whether fruit people should claim?
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am 4) With a town doctor I think another mafia PR is possible.
I have thoughts about this but I don't think I can easily speculate about it without revealing information I'd rather not reveal at this point.
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am Exactly as explained. Eido put BoomFrog at L-2 about a day into D2 (on a weekend) before Mark and I had an opportunity to post.
I'm not sure I'd call that opportunistic: he didn't really set up anything to happen. There's nothing special about L-2 beyond "2 more votes to eliminate". Assuming 2 scum (which I think is now confirmed from MYLO statement), either Eido was one of them, or they weren't preparing for a scum-led quick hammer.
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am Because in almost every game I have played No Elim wins ties. I was thinking about what this meant to the setup and strategy, and came up with at 1-1, the first person online wins which seems exactly the opposite of how a game should be decided. And I did ask the mod, and in the case of 1-1 endgame mafia would win.
Just trying to clarify this: did you only consider this impact on setup and strategy D2? (I get why you thought about it and raised it).
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am Oh? I was trying to save BoomFrog at the end of D2 because I thought he was town. I believe I was trying even harder to save Makhaira at the end of D3. What do you read into that?
I already said that your pivot on Makhaira feels townie to me. That being said, you barely defended Makhaira outside of explaining your reason for your pivot. In contrast, comments like your final post D2 where you seem to be actively encouraging Eido to switch his vote from BoomFrog. Looking briefly back at my notes, there were also 3 different posts out of a set of 4 relatively late in D3 where you state BoomFrog's towniness (posts 12, 14 and 15 to be precise), though I acknowledge I haven't double-checked the context to see what prompted those. Either way, the two situations just feel different.

Re. pushing Phillip, to be clear I don't mean you actively said people should vote Phillip. Rather, a couple of your posts implied you would have happily jumped on a wagon if someone else had bothered to start it.

Squeezing in somitomi D3 analysis:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Post 1: Embarrassed allowed BF to sway him end of D2. Looking back at D1 stuff. Messie best candidate for Boom-buddy.
Post 2: Phillip posting reasoning would help others figure him out.
Post 3: Why would he put himself in a position to force a self-pres vote on heury? Could have easily voted for messie or Heury instead. Didn't have time to digest things D2; genuinely found wam suspicious. BF wagon suspiciously unimpeded, and wanted to rock the boat and see what fell out. Annoyed by messie not understanding him.
Post 4: Speculates about Makhaira/BoomFrog connection. D1 they were holding each other at arms length, with mild scum reads of each other, but also townier points. Doesn't understand why Mak late game liability read ends up D1 elim list ahead of scum lead. D2 Mak comes out all guns blazing for BoomFrog. BF posts Mak scum case based on gambit, but votes wam, claiming wam/Mak team. Vote progression odd. Possible scum theatre, trying to make the most of BF's probable demise.
Post 5: BF not looking desperate might have given himself away, would have tried to self-pres. Successful wriggling out would have led to a fight on record between buddies. Mafia BF would not have accepted his fate. Bussing mafia will try to feign some uncertainty to not tip their hand. Asks Phillip what he thinks about his alignment. Squints at wam's vote for him.
Post 6: Re-read looking for Boom-buddy, but unsuccessful. Lots of interaction between wam/BF, wam suddenly switching to Mak only thing sticking out, but can't point fingers at wam for being convinced by BF. Doesn't feel coordinated, especially with "huh" reaction. Doesn't think bussing-wam would have jumped off him. Re-notes messie being protective of BF; doesn't think half of messie would do this as scum. Mak's reaction to his theory over defensive. Has Eido -> wam/Phillip -> messie -> Mak as town to scum.
Post 7: asks wam to look at somi's side of interactions with BF. Mak not addressing point about pre-deciding bus strategy. Asks messie why BF fighting Sabrar not implying town doesn't apply to Mak. Votes Mak.
Again, I don't see anything objectionable from somitomi here. I kind of get his Makhaira case. I think scum!somitomi looks at a different target instead to get eliminated (messie specifically being the obvious one there, but wam would also have been a reasonable target). Overall, I'm definitely feeling townie based on somi's content, and that's without considering his BoomFrog vote. If I had to eliminate one of him or messie, it would be messie at the moment.

wam will have to wait until another time. Doubt I'll get time before deadline now.

Placing this here for the record, in case something comes up preventing me posting tomorrow:
Vote No Elimination
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by Wam »

FIrst off

Somi Boom interactions
First mention of Boom, references Gamibts viewtopic.php?p=19189#p19189

Next mention is reads list boom at the bottom and a vote.

viewtopic.php?p=19479#p19479

This is an interesting one. I have two seperate views of this.

Evidence for town somi - putting partner boom at this stage is risky especially as they are a similar timezone to me and said they wouldn't be around at deadline to move the vote.

Evidence against - with the 3 way tie the tie breaker would save boom and at the time of these votals boom's vote was on Eido so could come in and break a tie and swing an elim . I also was thinking that it feels like a lot of players are not around at deadline which takes some of the risk away., but I don't have the data to know if this could be predicted by Boom and Somi.

viewtopic.php?p=20380#p20380

Here argues mak and boom could have gone for an all bus strategy but that argument could also be applied to Somi Boom EOD 1.

Hmm Somis interaction with Boom look less scummy than Booms' with Somi.

More to think about especially with a re read.

On the potential fruit vendor claim I would wait until the next day and hopefully they can play kingmaker. For today normal strategy is no elim and head agrees with that. Heart doesn't want to be making LYLO decisions as I have a terrible track record at them!
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by Wam »

So I'm 99% jimbob is town, logic is:

My suspicion of the boom vote was phillip had been advised by buddy or mentor to distance themselves from boom, panicked and voted. Jimbob comment that nothing much was said by the mentor struck me as something that scum jimbob wouldn't think to lie about but makes phillip unlikely to be boom buddy.
User avatar
Wam
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by Wam »

Not going to finish re read today.
vote no elim
User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:46 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 3)

Post by LaserGuy »

Vote Count 4.1:

No Elimination (2): jimbob, Wam (L-1)

Not voting: somitomi, messie

End of D4 is in about 8 hours
User avatar
somitomi
Posts: 92
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:04 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by somitomi »

Wam wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:01 am Evidence against - with the 3 way tie the tie breaker would save boom and at the time of these votals boom's vote was on Eido so could come in and break a tie and swing an elim . I also was thinking that it feels like a lot of players are not around at deadline which takes some of the risk away., but I don't have the data to know if this could be predicted by Boom and Somi.
All right, same question to you as to messie:
So why would I put my mate in a situation where he has to self-pres on Heury (and predictably attract some additional suspicion for it)? I didn't have much in the way of reads before my vote post, so I could've easily gone for Heury or you instead.
I'm not going to hammer in case messie wants to post before EoD
—◯-◯
User avatar
jimbobmacdoodle
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:55 am

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by jimbobmacdoodle »

As I suspected, I didn't have time today to even look at wam. I rather expect to die tonight, but in case I don't I'll try to do a reread of his D1-3 content in time for D5.

It's unlikely I'll be online again before deadline. Not that there's a huge amount of point, but I have no objection to hammer if everyone else is happy.
Wam wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:55 pm So I'm 99% jimbob is town, logic is:

My suspicion of the boom vote was phillip had been advised by buddy or mentor to distance themselves from boom, panicked and voted. Jimbob comment that nothing much was said by the mentor struck me as something that scum jimbob wouldn't think to lie about but makes phillip unlikely to be boom buddy.
Why couldn't Boom-buddy have told scum!Phillip to vote him?
User avatar
messie
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:21 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by messie »

Woof woof woof.

somitomi wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:32 pm 2) Since you brought this point up again, I'd like you to answer my question here, because I don't remember you doing so.
Is this the question:
somitomi wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 11:17 am So why would I put my mate in a situation where he has to self-pres on Heury (and predictably attract some additional suspicion for it)? I didn't have much in the way of reads before my vote post, so I could've easily gone for Heury or you instead.
Did you really expect an answer? I thought this comment was just an excuse for a LAMIST post.

I’ve said multiple times that I don’t think BoomFrog was really in any danger of being eliminated, and as BoomFrog’s partner you weren’t putting him in real danger of being eliminated. And why should BoomFrog’s vote be seen as more suspicious than the other players on Heury?


somitomi wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:32 pm
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:47 am Ok. Why do you find me scummy, and why have you not expressed more concern about my possible scumminess before now?
Not sure what you're talking about here, I have repeatedly mentioned my suspicions about you and even speculated about a link between you and Boomfrog before Boom flipped.
Why? I didn't think your comment was something to which you expected a response. Were you trying to bait me in that post?

somitomi wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:32 pm Just because I'm more suspicious of you, doesn't mean I'm not at all suspicious of Wam.
Any reasons you want to share? On either of us?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:44 pm
messie wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 am 3) Unless we no elim, this is the last day. And even if we no elim, mafia may have a power to make this the last day.
How does this relate to whether fruit people should claim?
Half my brain doesn’t think there will be a Day 5, that this is the last day, and that if there is any information that can lead to scum it should be claimed.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:44 pm Just trying to clarify this: did you only consider this impact on setup and strategy D2? (I get why you thought about it and raised it).
Yes.

Wam wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:55 pm So I'm 99% jimbob is town, logic is:

My suspicion of the boom vote was phillip had been advised by buddy or mentor to distance themselves from boom, panicked and voted. Jimbob comment that nothing much was said by the mentor struck me as something that scum jimbob wouldn't think to lie about but makes phillip unlikely to be boom buddy.
Like I said to jimbob about one of his posts, I think you should know better than to clear someone based on that reasoning. -1

somitomi wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:12 pm I'm not going to hammer in case messie wants to post before EoD
happy hoku.PNG
happy hoku.PNG (153.92 KiB) Viewed 530 times


I’ll post any additional thoughts I have before deadline.
User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:46 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by LaserGuy »

Day has ended. No more posting.
User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:46 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Day 4)

Post by LaserGuy »

The animals spend much of the day discussing, but were no closer to reaching a new candidate. As the sun began to set, the elephant frowned worriedly.

"We have to make a decision," she said. "Someone needs to be sent into the crater."

"We can't just throw someone in at random," protests the Taiga antelope, "We need to be certain. We've lost too many for poor decisions as it is."

"Why do we have to do this anyway?" demanded the chicken, "We could just pick a new king. Or not have a king."

Elephant frowned deeply at her, but before she could explain, peregrine falcon suddenly swooped down from overhead, "I found sloth!" He said excitedly, "He's alive and is heading this way."

"Perhaps we could wait until sloth arrives and see what he has to say before we make a decision?" offered the garter snake.

The elephant nodded, "I suppose there's no harm in waiting. Perhaps sloth can give us a new perspective."

The animals agreed to settle in and wait for sloth.

Sloth, meanwhile, had fallen asleep inside a hollow long.

Vote Count 4.2

No Elimination (2): jimbob, Wam

Not voting: messie, somitomi

The players have agreed to No Elimination.

It is now Night 4. Please submit any night actions by March 31 at 11PM. If ALL PLAYERS inform me via PM that they would like a short night, I will the Night early.
User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:46 pm

Re: Animal Kingdom Mafia (Night 4)

Post by LaserGuy »

All players have agreed to a short night. Day will be starting soonish.
Post Reply