Animal Kingdom Mafia (Game Over)

[Eido]

Ok so my head’s here:

1. Wam - Open & quick to drop scatterbrained thoughts. Feels like Town!Wam at this stage.
2. Phillip - Bizarre. Not sure what to think. Initially had a good impression but they have trended down. The Mary Poppins post felt like a troll.
3. Heury - Scum lean, based on their Messie vote. I’m thinking about this being a genuine mistake. Trying to understand how one forgets a whole read.
4. messie (bessie/Madge) - Leaning Town. I’m conscious other XKCD players have her low, and are seeing it differently. Here the Bessie side feels similar to the NewD3 game, and the clues she’s sniffing out feel kinda consistent with what has usually pinged her in the past. I don’t know anything about Madge.
5. Sabrar - Null. Difficult player to read. I like the way they do business. Has been very active and always present to answer. Want to lean Town.
6. somitomi - Strictly Null. I have real issues reading Somi. They've done nothing to make me trust them.
8. BoomFrog - Cryptic, looks like they have self-serving interests. Not clear what the slot is ultimately thinking or doing. Will touch on their reads list shortly.
9. Makhaira - Null. They sound experienced. I like their lines of questioning, and some questions look to be scoping out relationships between players, which feels good. Would like to find out more about their experience and who's played with them before.
10. Mark_Cangila - Leaning Town. They have a shift in tone from page 4 onwards. Goes from overly friendly to being more aggressive. I quite like this. I wanted to see if they would be tip-toeing around the thread, but their content has been pretty engaged and aggressive.

Wam / Messie / Mark
Phillip / Sabrar / Somi / Makhaira
Heury / Boom

(^Not ordered. Top group I wouldn't support a yeet. Middle group I'm ambivalent. Bottom group I would be happy to yeet).

[Eido]

@wam and @sabrar, you are letting Eido's townie tone lull you into complacency. They started the day strongly but then completely failed to be involved when things got serious.

Messier and Heury are both bad eleminations, and I'm trying to find a better choice.

Is this about not specifically talking about you & Sabrar?

I have some questions about your reads list

[Eido]

heury: I've already expressed my opinion here, I think people are concentrating too hard on the mistake (please check Secret Santa where the exact same thing happened).

Do you have a link to this?

[Sabrar]

Do you have a link to this?

Starts here. heury asks a question from moody D2, not remembering that moody was eliminated D1. heury then gets eliminated D2, wagon led by 'the worst' who painted it as a scum-slip. 'the worst' was scum instead.

[boomfrog]

@wam and @sabrar, you are letting Eido's townie tone lull you into complacency. They started the day strongly but then completely failed to be involved when things got serious.

Messier and Heury are both bad eleminations, and I'm trying to find a better choice.

Is this about not specifically talking about you & Sabrar?

I have some questions about your reads list

Yes. And what are your questions? Your read on me is very vague. The only actually scummy thing you listed is "self-serving interests", what exactly are my self serving interests?

[boomfrog]

boomfrog

- boomfrog made only a token effort to engage and solve until yesterday and there is no indication that the prior content felt relevant to him.
- as explained previously his thought process by which he tried to determine mine is flawed on many levels. He neglected to explain himself further, not responding to my latest inquiries at all.
- he scum-reads Eido just because Eido did not comment on one particular aspect of the game. This seems very excessive, especially coming from boomfrog who for example did not comment at all on how people find heury scummy because of the mistake. Since heury had 4 votes already at the time of boomfrog's read-list I recon that was also an important topic that would have merited some kind of comment from him.
- his 'advice' to somitomi (at the end of his readlist) feels off. boomfrog believes he can read the room but as of that point somitomi was very far from being an elim today considering the two major trains already. This is just a minor point though as it's just a vibe I'm getting from that comment.

Longer explanation:
I got burned badly last game by Osie and decided my D1 mission was to get a read on the high effort players. If the low effort players contain the scum then I trust the surviving high effort players to suss them out on later days. That meant you and messie, and I quickly added Eido to the list after their strong opening. I choose you to provoke because of the three I am most confident that you are able to reconsider once I reveal my plan. I did expect you to push back and be more annoyed faster. I expected Eido and Messie to at least comment about the conflict. Usually people love to speculate about a 1v1 confrontation on whether it is TvT TvS or SvS. No one even speculated that it might be scum theater, which is very surprising to me. If indeed you are town then I think scum where hanging back to see what the consensus was to see if there would be an opportunity there. This gives me a strong town tell for Mark, Heury and wam who were all willing to comment without pushing. Minus points for Makhaira and Eido, they seems experienced enough with the game and proactive enough that I'd expect them to comment. But I have a townie lean on Makhaira for other reasons. Messie copped out with an "is boomfrog" read which is frustrating but within normal behavior unfortunately so NAI.

[LaserGuy]

Votecount 1.4

messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
Eido (1): BoomFrog
heury (4): Eido, Makhaira, Mark, messie (L-2)
BoomFrog (1): Sabrar

Not voting: somitomi

End of Day is in 14 hours

[heuristically_alone]

@somitomi What are your thoughts on messie and me? You're the only one not voting. Also why are your thoughts on boom being adamant not wanting to vote messie or me?

[Sabrar]

@boomfrog: I can accept all of your reasoning except I have a little trouble with this part:

I choose you to provoke because of the three I am most confident that you are able to reconsider once I reveal my plan.

You know full well how committed I can be to my tunnels. I can maybe see why you would consider messie more stubborn and Eido might be an unknown quantity but still...
Unfortunately some of your reasoning/explanation seems post hoc to me which is of course understandable from the nature of your test. I will try to reconsider, it doesn't look like right now that you would be eliminated today so I will probably move my vote before deadline.

[Eido]

Yo Boom just to fill you in, I’ve played 4 games. This is my 5th game.

I suppose I give off the illusion of being experienced because I ask a lot of questions.

Anyway my experience with D1s tend to be awkward. You/Sabrar is unfamiliar territory to me, more so than Bessie/Sabrar. I prefer to wait and see how things develop in prep for Day 2. Right now I'm looking into things that I think could be faked, or just the overall vibe of a player. I'm also down to change the approach if there's something better, so let me know.

I also want to flag some things you said on page 7 so I'll do that in a sec

[boomfrog]

You are reading way too much into things and you should not be that confident of being able to know what is going on in town!Sabrar's mind as you have been misreading me plenty of times in the past.

Without anyone else giving any significant pings that little evidence should put me tentatively at the bottom of your scum list. Which means you should be idly thinking about connections.

The second doesn't follow from the first. I'm not going to look for connections with less than a day since start where we are still in rvs and mostly just chatting. I also disagree that there have been 'lots of townie-tells' at that point and that you can reasonably do PoE.
It's okay if you want to test me but that reasoning falls short on many levels.

Your right, "which means" should be "and". But as messie pointed out, you are always thinking about connections.

What does FoS mean if it doesn't mean you have suspicion? Don't strawman by denying that you definitively decided I'm scum. An FoS is a scummy ping. It shouldn't mean nothing.

I deny it and it's not a strawman. FoS indicates a certain level of suspicion, it does not mean a 100% scum-ping and you are aware of the difference. Your entry was 'safe', without the promise of actual contribution. I remember 2 games where I was able to detect a similar vibe from scum's very first post.
Also, why do you imply that I haven't followed through? Why haven't you interacted with anyone else? What are you doing to solve the game?

I know you didn't think I'm 100% scum, so denying that is not the point. The point is you say you "had no significant scum tells" but you say my entry did have scum vibes. I guess we are just arguing about the definition of "significant", but I think in the absence of any other scum tells from other players, a scum vibe from one player should put them on your tentative scum list.

@boomfrog: I can accept all of your reasoning except I have a little trouble with this part:

I choose you to provoke because of the three I am most confident that you are able to reconsider once I reveal my plan.

You know full well how committed I can be to my tunnels. I can maybe see why you would consider messie more stubborn and Eido might be an unknown quantity but still...

I disagree, I recall several times that we've had a staredown D1 and then reconciled. I was trying to coerce that process experience artificially. Time will tell if I succeeded.

[boomfrog]

Btw, I probably won't be available near deadline. Tuesday nights are busy for me. My Blades in the Dark game will be ending right around deadline, so maybe I can slip away last minute while the players are wrapping up xp and downtime actions. Quote ping me if you need me to do something near deadline.

[Sabrar]

But as messie pointed out, you are always thinking about connections.

That phrase of mine is missing something, it should have been "I'm not going to actively look for connections". That was my mistake for not being clear enough.

I guess we are just arguing about the definition of "significant",

I guess we are.

I recall several times that we've had a staredown D1 and then reconciled. I was trying to coerce that process experience artificially.

Duly noted.

[Mark_Cangila]

Town
Eido - Immediately began to attempt to identify relationships between players. Good scum hunting.
Sabrar - see above
Wam - I like the vote on messie and agree with his assessment that messie is worried about sabrar
Mark_Cangila - Is making an impressive effort. And I can follow their thought process with his town reads. And felt like he had no idea on scum so sheeping vote on me.
Phillip - Seems to be around in their thought process. If they're scum either there's no say chat or they haven't communicated much with their scum partner yet.

Neutral
Somitomi - To me somi doesn't seem to change much whether town or scum and is the only player that nothing particularly jumped out as town or scum.

Scum
Makhaira - Mainly due to paranoia carried over from secret Santa. Feels like the vote on me is an excuse due to a "slip".
Boom - Lots of talk but surprisingly little actual content. Not what I expect from boom at this point. Usually by now he has made some connection that blows my mind.
Messie - Seems to know there are only two mafia. I'm suspicious that boom and messie have planned Sabrar as a mislynch.

They, not he. But also, your read on Makhaira feels very OMGUS to me - "The vote on me is an excuse due to a 'slip'" how do you think people should vote, if not on perceived scum slips? Why is that scummy, but what you perceive as me sheeping a vote isn't?

I'm getting town vibes from you, therefore your read on me is incorrect. I have not gotten town vibes from Makhaira. If you were scum would you not jump at the opportunity the vote someone town that you could spin their info as a slip? It's exactly what happened to me last game. And yes I suppose it is partially OMGUS, but decided to lean scum on the fact that I have gotten no town vibe yet and I know their vote is incorrect.

But your only reasoning for having a scum vibe on Makhaira is the vote - the reasoning is circular here. Your other two scum reads also don't feel particularly interesting or innovative to me.

Do you have a link to this?

Starts here. heury asks a question from moody D2, not remembering that moody was eliminated D1. heury then gets eliminated D2, wagon led by 'the worst' who painted it as a scum-slip. 'the worst' was scum instead.

I'm less worried about the mistake but the reaction. The wording in Heury's correction feels off to me, like they only knew that they scumread Messie bc they saw the vote.

[Eido]

It's basically these:

Town:
Mark - Good townie vibe and active scumhunting. Good reads list. I recall Mark being more passive.
Heury - Good reads list, actually paying attention and trying to scumhunt.

"Good reads list" is unclear to me here. When you checked over both their lists, did you consider the positions of Sabrar and myself?

@wam and @sabrar, you are letting Eido's townie tone lull you into complacency. They started the day strongly but then completely failed to be involved when things got serious.

Messier and Heury are both bad eleminations, and I'm trying to find a better choice.

The appeal to Sabrar here is odd as he's in your scum pool. Wouldn't you have a more vested interested in appealing to your Town reads instead and not someone you believe could be scum? It looks like you're more interested in thread power first, hence self-serving interests.

It makes me question if your heart is true about believing I am Scum, or whether you have an interest to shake up the Town core forming. Me being unanimously Town is a threat to Scum, right? And you coming in before deadline to shake that up feels like an attempt to undermine the Town, especially when you're trying to coax someone from your scum pool to join you. It feels slimy.

Thoughts?

[boomfrog]

It's basically these:

Town:
Mark - Good townie vibe and active scumhunting. Good reads list. I recall Mark being more passive.
Heury - Good reads list, actually paying attention and trying to scumhunt.

"Good reads list" is unclear to me here. When you checked over both their lists, did you consider the positions of Sabrar and myself?

Good reads list means that reading through their list, it makes sense from my imagination of their town perspective. They fit my expectations of them as town. My expectations for everyone are different, for example Heury has a very casual, and perhaps more superficial style. I didn't look specifically for their read on you, although I recall the both put you as townie, which is understandable. Your vibe early D1 was very townie. I was looking particular at their reads on Sabrar and on me. Which fit an uninformed and unrestrained posting style.

@wam and @sabrar, you are letting Eido's townie tone lull you into complacency. They started the day strongly but then completely failed to be involved when things got serious.

Messier and Heury are both bad eleminations, and I'm trying to find a better choice.

The appeal to Sabrar here is odd as he's in your scum pool. Wouldn't you have a more vested interested in appealing to your Town reads instead and not someone you believe could be scum? It looks like you're more interested in thread power first, hence self-serving interests.

It makes me question if your heart is true about believing I am Scum, or whether you have an interest to shake up the Town core forming. Me being unanimously Town is a threat to Scum, right? And you coming in before deadline to shake that up feels like an attempt to undermine the Town, especially when you're trying to coax someone from your scum pool to join you. It feels slimy.

Thoughts?

It's D1. Even on the best of D1s I'm never more then about 80% sure of a scum read. At this point I'm barely above 50%. How often have you seen the D1 elimination hit scum? Shaking things up gives us more information to work from on later Days. I'd like to make sure the town core is all town before it solidifies, and you are an unknown and clearly competent player.

[Eido]

Ok. And have you given this post any thought too?:

Yo Boom just to fill you in, I’ve played 4 games. This is my 5th game.

I suppose I give off the illusion of being experienced because I ask a lot of questions.

Anyway my experience with D1s tend to be awkward. You/Sabrar is unfamiliar territory to me, more so than Bessie/Sabrar. I prefer to wait and see how things develop in prep for Day 2. Right now I'm looking into things that I think could be faked, or just the overall vibe of a player. I'm also down to change the approach if there's something better, so let me know.

I also want to flag some things you said on page 7 so I'll do that in a sec

[Wam]

Ok probably last post since deadline. I'm not sure how much I'm buying booms gambit but I was reading messie as scummier already. I dont think much has changed for me since my reads list so I'm leaving my vote where it is.

[Eido]

@Sabrar: Just a quick heads up to say I briefly flicked through the Secret Santa game and can see what you are saying now. Overall it looks like Heury is quite clumsy. It's possible Town!Heury felt the pain from this game and makes it an incentive to correct himself next time he slips up.

Unvote
Vote: Boom

@Wam @Mark @Messie Join this?

[Sabrar]

@Mark: I would like an answer to this before the night.

[Sabrar]

I will be back about an hour before deadline. Need a lot more content from somitomi, ideally phillip as well but I'm not keeping my hopes up.
It would also be great if either half of messie could be here for the final hour to discuss things in real time.

[boomfrog]

@Sabrar: Just a quick heads up to say I briefly flicked through the Secret Santa game and can see what you are saying now. Overall it looks like Heury is quite clumsy. It's possible Town!Heury felt the pain from this game and makes it an incentive to correct himself next time he slips up.

Unvote
Vote: Boom

@Wam @Mark @Messie Join this?

I've explained why my interaction with Sabrar is weird. What do you actually find scummy about me? Is intentionally being confrontational scummy? Would you prefer I sit back and go with the flow and let the Mafia steer the conversation?

Drifting into the first consensus elimination D1 is how town loses the game.

[somitomi]

Sorry everyone, poor sleep and poor planning conspired to make me less involved than I'd like to be. Groups and thoughts in no particular order

friendly (the only note in my head is that they've done nothing suspicious or unusual)
Eido
Wam
Sabrar
Mark_Cangila

maybe
Makhaira: the setup question mentioned already
Philip: I can't really see most people here advising him to take refuge in audacity as mafia. Here mainly because we need more from him


shady
messie: kind of odd that I'm so high on her list with a "not much" after getting one of her two fingers of suspicion.
Heury: feels less easygoing than usual to me, but it's hardly condemning
BoomFrog: some early-game weirdness and his read on Eido (and to a lesser extent Sabrar) just doesn't sit right with me

God, this is unoriginal and I have the usual feeling that I'm completely wrong.

Vote BoomFrog

I don't expect to be back before deadline

[heuristically_alone]

I'm taking shady translates to scum based on the reads list, so if hardly condemning why I am I here?

Still undecided about somitomi. Just feels like they haven't had time to pay much attention to the game.

[Makhaira]

Turns out the forum is blocked at work and typing on phone is the worst.
Heury's snarky tone is pinging me a little, in my recollection town-heury is usually more easy-going.
Makhaira asking about the setup this way seems fishy to my less tired mind.

this felt like a really lame excuse to just keep the rvs vote on me but your later vote for boom contradicts that theory

my ping on heury was for the same reason and seeing someone who seem to have meta with heury say its out of step validates that. is there anyone else in here with experience with heury that can confirm/deny what somi is saying here?

Still undecided about somitomi. Just feels like they haven't had time to pay much attention to the game.

same

boomfrog undermining my TMI bait and now 180ing and saying he town reads me for it feels gross, like he's cutting bait and running

fine with boom or heury going at this point. wouldnt be upset to lose phillip is becoming deader and deader weight by the day but I don't think we learn much from that flip