Animal Kingdom Mafia (Game Over)

[Makhaira]

Id much rather see heury or philip elim'd here but I need to take a closer look at the neutrals

[LaserGuy]

Votecount 1.2

messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
phillip (1): Makhaira
Sabrar (2): Mark, BoomFrog
Makhaira (1): somitomi

Not voting: messie, Eido, Sabrar

(Please let me know if anything is incorrect)

End of Day is in 1.5 days

[Sabrar]

@phillip: do you not have any reaction to this?

you should try to articulate why you are voting for that person. Just because they appear to be the common consensus might be a good enough reason for you but for the others it's rarely enough. Why vote messie instead of me when (as you yourself have noted) we both are a common choice?

[Makhaira]

Have I ever mentioned how much I hate “if I were scum” posts?

...

FoS somitomi

FoS Sabrar

why did somi and sabrar warrant FoS's here but not heury based on their WIFOM?

[Eido]

I don't support a Messie yeet

Vote: Heury

[Eido]

I'm a bit less certain of him not being scum at all as he could have a good buddy/coach, but the overall vibe I get from him (e.g. the vote on messie without feeling the need to justify it) make me think he doesn't care about appearances and that would be town-indicative.

So Heury was voting Messie, and later said he had no read on them. He later corrected himself about 2 hours later. It looked like he realised he made a mistake and felt anxious to correct himself. I'm leaning on the idea that he cared about his appearance here, with Scum!Heury possibly realising he was being clumsy, needing to set the bar straight quickly before it got picked up on by anyone else.

What do you think?

[Eido]

i don't really have anything to add...
supercalafragalisticexpealadotious

How bizarre. You've totally butchered the spelling

I suppose everyone has said what needs to be said about this.

[Sabrar]

I can see your point but I don't believe correcting yourself is alignment-indicative. I'm pretty sure I've done the same as town before.
In a similar vein, do you think wam stating an incorrect vote-count on messie is alignment-indicative?

[Eido]

Ok. Have you seen anything alignment-indicative that makes you want to vote anyone?

I would say no to your Wam question. It could be a yes if the context was different, like we were seconds before deadline and Scum!Wam lies about the numbers to coax the Town into a Messie hammer or something. Here it looks like he didn't count the votes correctly and didn't care to notice.

[Sabrar]

Ok. Have you seen anything alignment-indicative that makes you want to vote anyone?

Yes, but I would like to hear from a couple of players before I do so. I will probably place a vote tomorrow morning.

[Makhaira]

@somitomi: do you have any reads right now?

I don't know why my brain singled out Makhaira, but so far I'm leaning town there. Philip feels a little weird but at this stage it's still within newbie-range. I'm gonna sit down later this evening to gather my thoughts, but I need to get food.

your vote on me is residual from rvs iirc so time to put it somewhere meaningful somi

Unvote: phillip
Vote: heury

[Mark_Cangila]

I just lost an almost completed reads list. Give me a while

[Mark_Cangila]

@Mark: what is your opinion on Eido?

I generally like Eido - working from his reference to NewD3 mafia, his play here seems similar to his play there. It seems townie and engaged - lots of questions, albeit not much specific analysis. I don't agree with him on messie though - messie here seems less "fine-toothed" than in NewD3.

Why are you FoSing, then?

Because it’s suspicious to me that Town would not ask questions about the setup when they’re relevant, as they were when trying to determine if something’s a genuine slip or not, especially when the information is already available in the thread.

My question was about why you're FoSing instead of voting, it's odd you didn't notice that

@Messie could you respond to my question here? Where FoS instead of vote after asking Sabrar why he did that?

are these related?

Great question. I do not have a read on messie and I treat them as one entity. So not related.

Forgot that I DO have a read on messie. Hence the vote. Still only treating as one entity though.

This might be a small thing, but explaining it as "hence the vote" feels weird. It reads like the entire basis behind the read is the vote, and like he's trying to seem consistent without necessarily finding scum.

Not entirely. Your timing is suspicious.

Yeah, because I'm known for being patient and not refresh the page every minute when I'm expecting role pm-s to be sent out. I'm sure you have a GoJoe post about that saved somewhere.

You responded in thread within like 3 minutes of Role PMs coming out, though. Then later you said it was at 11:18 your time, not like a last minute end of the night check. I don't know if it's scummy, but it seems weird.

Town:
Eido - see above

Neutral (no particular order):
Philip - I'm not as scum as I would be for this little content. Philip sounds to me exactly how new players who I've played mafia IRL with play - very quiet and think they just need to vote once. I'm not quite certain how a mentor fits in with that, though.

Sabrar - The confirmation post stuff seems contradictory, but not excessively scummy. I don't think BF is right abt Sabrar being scum. I also remember Sabrar having quick tunnels, so the point abt slower scum reads seems fine.

Makhaira - I'm conflicted here. The mountinous question is answered in the first post on the thread - not sure why it was brought up so much. And WIFOM isn't what happened with the Heury situation to my mind? This could be different forum playstyles, though

Somi - There's very little content, but I also remember somi posting very little on D1 in the past, so it isn't too decisive. I'll have to see about him.

Wam - Also neutral - seems like not too much too base a read off of, and I remember Wam seeming scummy D1 as well. I wonder why he lists Heury as townie though @Wam

Scum (ordered, vaguely):
Messie - The FoS business doesn't look great to me, and I feel like the content is lower quality. Some of that is due to the hydraness though.
BF - Very little content, basically has only gone after Sabrar in a thorougly unconvincing way to me
Heury - I've become more negative on him - the correction reads as worse and worse.

Vote: Heuristically_Alone
Which probably looks pretty bad given Makhaira and Eido's votes - I promise this post started being written before they voted

[Makhaira]

@mark is it not obvious to you why a person's opinion on the mountainous-ness of a setup would be related to their initial positions on the town/scum balance? I think sadly between you and boom trying to give away the answer or obscure the inquiry, the probative value of trying to get this info from the people who were discussing likely # of scum as been essentially eroded

I agree my use of WIFOM here is a bit overbroad but to me any comments to the tune of "lol if I was scum I would do X" is in the WIFOM family because you're trading off future game EV for current game EV which is inherently unreliable/unfalsifiable argument

[Mark_Cangila]

@mark is it not obvious to you why a person's opinion on the mountainous-ness of a setup would be related to their initial positions on the town/scum balance? I think sadly between you and boom trying to give away the answer or obscure the inquiry, the probative value of trying to get this info from the people who were discussing likely # of scum as been essentially eroded

Not when the first post in the thread outright declares there's at least one PR. Although now that I've checked your original post there, I noticed you said "how mountainous", not just "mountainous or not", which makes my point there irrelevant. I don't think me and Boom wreck the question though - should we just not question your posts in case they might be useful in sussing out scum?

I agree my use of WIFOM here is a bit overbroad but to me any comments to the tune of "lol if I was scum I would do X" is in the WIFOM family because you're trading off future game EV for current game EV which is inherently unreliable/unfalsifiable argument

I read Heury's original post as explaining Sabrar's explanation, which Sabrar then confirmed - that's not the same as WIFOM in the sense you mean.

[Mark_Cangila]

I'm also just not as convinced that responses on mountainousness are all that useful; scum have a slightly bigger sample size that might influence them, but not overwhelmingly larger.

[boomfrog]

people are asking each other questions in the early game about their assumptions re: # of scum in the game and you don't think their subjective positions re: the mountainousness of this game are relevant? are you trying to help someone not scumslip?

If someone's role is a power role then they have extra info that the game is less mountainous. If they're role is vanilla they have secret info that the game is more mountainous. So asking for a 1-10 score is asking for people to give hints to if they are a power role. That's info that is useful to scum. You seem experienced with the game. How are you not conscious about role fishing

@heury Anything particular interesting happening for you in RL? New job?

are you getting at the response to the WIFOM callout with this question or was this inspired by something else? like are you friends IRL or something? because in fairness, I can see how this would partly explain the tone

No. But Heury was extremely quite and passive the last two games here that I participated in and I'm trying to figure out if his enthusiasm this game is alignment indicative. So I wanted to know if there's something IRL affecting his mood / participation levels.

[boomfrog]

Ok. Have you seen anything alignment-indicative that makes you want to vote anyone?

What is your opinion about my interaction with Sabrar?

[boomfrog]

And why have you avoided commenting about it? It's one of the most interesting things going on in the thread so far.

[boomfrog]

I'd love to get read lists from everyone. (Well done Mark). I'll try and get one out tonight.

[phillip1882]

please literally tell us anything about who you think would be a good choice to eliminate from the game that isn't "others think this is a good choice so I will follow them"

it is impossible for us to get a read on you if you just blindly follow other players and it will make you a liability as a town player (if you are one) if you end up blindly following the choices of the mafia aligned players. I know that its hard to be confident in any given position in the early game but you need to at absolute minimum be communicating with us who you think are people we should trust, who you think we shouldn't trust and who ultimately should be eliminated as your top choice for most likely to be mafia aligned

but i have no clue from the content who i should vote for and why. following the popular choice seems a fairly good strategy to me, as there's fewer mafia players than towns folk.

[heuristically_alone]

Do we know if Philip has a mentor? I think this would be a question you'd ask your mentor regardless of aligment, so Philip asking it here could be a trick.

I thought about that and declined to ask the mod about it because I believe it shouldn't influence my read on him.

Look at me I'm town!

On some players I'd be suspicious, but with Sabrar, this flight process doesn't surprise me. I fully expect town!Sabrar to think this and shouldn't surprise me either that he'd tell us.

[heuristically_alone]

Town
Eido - Immediately began to attempt to identify relationships between players. Good scum hunting.
Sabrar - see above
Wam - I like the vote on messie and agree with his assessment that messie is worried about sabrar
Mark_Cangila - Is making an impressive effort. And I can follow their thought process with his town reads. And felt like he had no idea on scum so sheeping vote on me.
Phillip - Seems to be around in their thought process. If they're scum either there's no say chat or they haven't communicated much with their scum partner yet.

Neutral
Somitomi - To me somi doesn't seem to change much whether town or scum and is the only player that nothing particularly jumped out as town or scum.

Scum
Makhaira - Mainly due to paranoia carried over from secret Santa. Feels like the vote on me is an excuse due to a "slip".
Boom - Lots of talk but surprisingly little actual content. Not what I expect from boom at this point. Usually by now he has made some connection that blows my mind.
Messie - Seems to know there are only two mafia. I'm suspicious that boom and messie have planned Sabrar as a mislynch.

[Mark_Cangila]

Town
Eido - Immediately began to attempt to identify relationships between players. Good scum hunting.
Sabrar - see above
Wam - I like the vote on messie and agree with his assessment that messie is worried about sabrar
Mark_Cangila - Is making an impressive effort. And I can follow their thought process with his town reads. And felt like he had no idea on scum so sheeping vote on me.
Phillip - Seems to be around in their thought process. If they're scum either there's no say chat or they haven't communicated much with their scum partner yet.

Neutral
Somitomi - To me somi doesn't seem to change much whether town or scum and is the only player that nothing particularly jumped out as town or scum.

Scum
Makhaira - Mainly due to paranoia carried over from secret Santa. Feels like the vote on me is an excuse due to a "slip".
Boom - Lots of talk but surprisingly little actual content. Not what I expect from boom at this point. Usually by now he has made some connection that blows my mind.
Messie - Seems to know there are only two mafia. I'm suspicious that boom and messie have planned Sabrar as a mislynch.

They, not he. But also, your read on Makhaira feels very OMGUS to me - "The vote on me is an excuse due to a 'slip'" how do you think people should vote, if not on perceived scum slips? Why is that scummy, but what you perceive as me sheeping a vote isn't?

[Makhaira]

people are asking each other questions in the early game about their assumptions re: # of scum in the game and you don't think their subjective positions re: the mountainousness of this game are relevant? are you trying to help someone not scumslip?

If someone's role is a power role then they have extra info that the game is less mountainous. If they're role is vanilla they have secret info that the game is more mountainous. So asking for a 1-10 score is asking for people to give hints to if they are a power role. That's info that is useful to scum. You seem experienced with the game. How are you not conscious about role fishing

role fishing and baiting scum to slip by unintentionally revealing that they know too much are two sides of the same coin

please literally tell us anything about who you think would be a good choice to eliminate from the game that isn't "others think this is a good choice so I will follow them"

it is impossible for us to get a read on you if you just blindly follow other players and it will make you a liability as a town player (if you are one) if you end up blindly following the choices of the mafia aligned players. I know that its hard to be confident in any given position in the early game but you need to at absolute minimum be communicating with us who you think are people we should trust, who you think we shouldn't trust and who ultimately should be eliminated as your top choice for most likely to be mafia aligned

but i have no clue from the content who i should vote for and why. following the popular choice seems a fairly good strategy to me, as there's fewer mafia players than towns folk.

do you think that there is anyone in this game who is just going along with the crown to avoid standing out? do you think anyone seems to be playing opportunistically? does anyone seem protective of anyone else to you?

its not good enough to follow the majority all game. yes you want to make the right picks and if the majority is right in their scum reads then its objectively good play to vote with them, but its also your own personal responsibility to help identify the scum, and also, prove that you yourself arent scum by playing protown as best you can